In the Chinese investment circle, Gao Bin is a name that attracts people's attention, which has something to do with his rich resume.

The so-called richness mainly means that he is not only holding positions of different kinds of work, such as investment company CEO and chief economist, but also his experience in Lehman, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Kaifeng Investment, Tsinghua Wudaokou, and other investment banks, asset management institutions at home and abroad, and academia.

According to the data, Gao Bin is currently the chief economist of 10 billion private equity Kaifeng Investment and a special professor of Tsinghua Wudaokou Institute of Finance. In the past, Gao Bin has been in charge of strategy and research as a partner of Guard Capital, and has successfully helped the fund increase the size of management from 50 million to 1 billion US dollars over the course of a year.

It can be said that excellent resumes like Gao Bin are rare. Moreover, it is even more meaningful at a time of uncertainty at home and abroad.

As overseas markets bet on Biden to win this year's election, the market began to consider the potential impact of a series of Biden policies. If Biden is elected, what will happen to the gap between the rich and the poor in the US economic structure? What will happen to the market? How will the resulting US stocks, bonds, commodities, crude oil and other assets perform?

Interestingly, in the history of the US election, there have been many major mistakes in opinion polls, but the reasons for each mistake are not the same. Is the opinion poll led by the media reliable in the United States? If Biden is elected and Trump "denies", what other "moves" will he make, and what kind of disturbance will this cause to the market?

In addition, how to view the rising sales of China's real estate market under the epidemic? At present, which investment opportunities for A shares and Hong Kong stocks are worthy of attention? For new energy, photovoltaic and other hot plates, how to treat its valuation.

With these questions, recently, I had the honor to have an in-depth conversation with Gao Bin.

Gao Bin gave a clear position and analysis on the above issues. This interview is divided into two parts: the first and the next. This article is the previous article, which focuses on the hottest recent US election and the potential investment opportunities and risks behind it.

Wonderful ideas:

If Biden is elected, the bull market in US technology stocks may be over. There are two risk points that can lead to a correction in US stocks: first, the US has shifted from low inflation expectations to high inflation, restricting the Fed's ability to "release water". Second, after Biden came to power, he advocated the introduction of capital gains tax, and wealthy Americans sold their holdings in the stock market.

Us stocks, especially the top five stocks, have risen very well and are now in a state of bubble. Interestingly, stocks in a bubble are more likely to rise than fall. However, if this part of the stock falls, the range will be very large.

Many people say that the 2016 US presidential election proved the polls unreliable, but it is actually wrong. On this basis, the core of this year's election depends on marginal changes. From a marginal point of view, many people who voted for Trump or did not vote in 2016 will vote for Biden. Because the American people need politicians who have a sense of morality and justice. Trump's actions violate the basic bottom line of many people, and although Americans do not necessarily recognize Democratic policies, they are highly likely to vote for Biden after trying the administration of the Trump administration.

If Biden wins and Trump denies it, the uncertainty in the market will be even higher from November to January next year. The president officially took office on January 20 next year, before which he was still president, if he does something very extreme, it will cause a lot of disturbance to the market.

Now the market should pay more attention to whether the Democrats will sweep in one fell swoop. Judging from various signs, there is a 50% chance that the Democrats will retake the Senate. So there are still questions about the impact of Biden's election on the market. After all, the Democratic Party's proposal, such as changing the tax law, needs to be promoted jointly by both the House and Senate.

The Democratic Party is more inclined to fiscal stimulus to infrastructure or to support a commodity bull market. There was a big bull market in commodities from 2000 to 2010. But since 2010, commodities have basically been a big bear market. In terms of simple cycles, there is also a high probability of a bull market in the next decade, especially in the context of a flood of global currencies. There is a premise here that the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic can be controlled. If the epidemic breaks out again, the commodity bull market will be delayed.

Democrats will also favor goods with both financial and industrial attributes, such as the recent silver and copper, once people accept a story, the theme will be the so-called Davis double-click. Silver, for example, itself has been supported by financial attributes, and the probability of Biden winning the election has increased the demand for silver in green energy photovoltaic, which has further brought speculative demand. The resonance of financial, industrial and speculative attributes is the trend of silver and non-ferrous metals in the future. We have been optimistic that the photovoltaic sector has always had a core position, under the background of the trend, no matter how high the valuation is, it will not be reduced to zero. But the margin will certainly be adjusted according to market conditions, as for when to adjust, it is very artistic behavior. For example, the overall valuation of US technology stocks is very high, do you think it should be adjusted? Behind this, we also need to track various factors such as capital flow.

The semiconductor industry is basically a winner-take-all, and the current "123" in the Chinese market (the three companies with the strongest market share) are basically foreign companies. If the United States restricts China's development and forbids "123", then the market share of "456" will increase rapidly in the process of autonomy, perhaps in three to five years. We are optimistic about autonomy and control.

As for the bond market, it may be relatively flat. But the possibility of a sharp fall in the bond market is slim because, after all, the Fed has said it will not raise interest rates for three years. Without raising interest rates for three years, the bond market will not fall even if inflation rises. In this context, the independent long time of China's bond market is approaching, and it has become very attractive as a hedge allocation for stock bulls.

The following is a transcript of the conversation:

Don't neglect the Democrats' results in the Senate.

Q: how do you expect the market to change if Biden is elected?

Takahashi:Before the first debate between Trump and Biden in early September, we thought that Biden had a good chance of winning the election.

The opinion polls in the United States are relatively accurate. We cannot judge that Trump will be re-elected this year just because of an accident like 2016. What are the obvious marginal changes?

The percentage of people who supported Trump in 2016 was 50%, and the marginal change from 2016 to the present is that it is rare to see voters who voted for Democrats in 2016 switch to Republicans. On the contrary, at least three categories of people will vote for the Democratic Party this year.

These include: first, many of America's elite; second, some influential positions within the Republican Party, such as George W. Bush and Powell senior; and third, Sanders' far left, who did not vote much in 2016 and now supports Biden.

From the first debate between the two candidates to the polls after Trump's illness, there is no doubt that Biden will be elected.

Now the market should pay more attention toWill the Democratic Party sweep。Whether Democrats in the Senate will win the election after Biden wins the election. At present, judging from various signs, the Democrats have a 50% chance of recapturing the Senate.

Whether the Democratic Party can win the election in the Senate will also have an impact on the market itself. Standing at the current point in time, there are still questions about the market reaction after Biden's election. After all, the Democratic Party's proposal needs to be promoted by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

If Biden is elected, the American "science and technology cow"」Or it will end.

Let's assume that Biden is elected and that Democrats in the Senate have a narrow margin, which makes it very easy for Democrats to implement their bill, which is relatively negative for American technology stocks. There are the following factors:

First, US stocks, especially the top five stocks, have risen very well and are now in a state of bubble. Interestingly, stocks in a bubble are more likely to rise than fall. But if the bubble bursts, it will fall very sharply.

At present, the valuations of the top five technology stocks account for a large part of the U. S. market, and their earnings growth is much lower than that of stock prices.

The fact that it is easy to overlook is that the opportunities for Chinese domestic alternative companies are obvious. It is expected that these domestic alternative companies will affect the profits of US head companies-not only can their market share increase at home, but also that Chinese companies will compete substantially with American companies in the global market. This kind of competition is actually disadvantageous to the American head company.

If Biden is elected, there is a high probability that the U. S. technology stock market will end next year, although in a bubble, the exact timing is hard to predict.

Q: what factors will lead to the adjustment of US stock head companies or technology companies in the future?

Takahashi:Based on the premise that Biden can be elected, I think there are two possibilities.

First, the US has shifted from low inflation expectations to high inflation, restricting the Fed's ability to release water. If this happens, technology stocks will suffer the most. Because technology stocks are high-growth stocks, they benefit most from the low interest rate environment.

Second, after Biden took office, the introduction of capital gains tax advocated by Biden has a great impact on the rich, and the rich in the United States own a lot of shares. Of course, if a capital gains tax is introduced, there will be a time lag-if Biden becomes president next year, he may have six months to a year to discuss the issue, then the real capital gains tax may be introduced in 2022. As a result, wealthy Americans are likely to sell a large portion of their holdings before tax reform.

Both of these factors are the risk points that can lead to the adjustment of US stocks.

Q: can it be understood that if Biden is elected, the US technology stock market will end next year?

Takahashi:I think the probability is higher.

Market-orientedUncertaintyStill high

Takahashi:Although we think Biden has a high chance of winning, there are still a lot of market uncertainties.

First, consider what extremes Trump would do if he lost. This is a political risk.

If Biden wins and Trump denies it, the uncertainty in the middle of the market will be even higher from November to January, because Trump will be president until January 20. During the period, if he does something very extreme, it will cause a great disturbance to the market. This in itself is a big risk point.

Second, the epidemic situation. In the past week, the number of global outbreaks has increased to an all-time high. The fatality rate usually lags behind, and when the number of confirmed outbreaks increases, so does the death toll. If the follow-up fatality rate increases, will the market still be so optimistic?

But on the other hand, it should be noted that even if US stocks are not good, it does not mean that A shares and Hong Kong stocks are not good-no matter from the perspective of growth, interest rate discount, risk appetite, etc., the long-term upward momentum of the Chinese stock market is stronger.

The US general election polls are reliable.

Q: what do you think of the accuracy of the US election polls and whether they are reliable?

Takahashi:It's reliable. There are two reasons:

Let's first interpret the 2016 election. Many people say that the 2016 US presidential election is unreliable, but it is actually wrong.

It was true that Hillary Clinton took the lead in 2016, but then she lost. After the "mail door" comes out, but the changes in the middle need to be paid attention to. A few weeks before the election, Hillary Clinton was exposed that the "email door" incident-- before the "email door" came out, Hillary Clinton took the lead, but her approval rating was relatively limited, with a maximum of 48.8%. After the email scandal, opinion polls showed that her and Trump's approval ratings were balanced, with Clinton averaging 46.8% and 44.7% in the week before the election. No one could know the ending at that time.

With neck-and-neck approval ratings on both sides, Trump also lost the popular vote, and he only won the electoral vote. This proves that the opinion polls are relatively accurate. Trump was elected mainly because of luck.

The second example of opinion polls is also very interesting. In the 2018 mid-term elections, everyone was praising how good Trump was and that he could win more votes in Congress. At that time, American opinion polls drew a picture showing which states the Republicans would win and the Democrats would win. Finally, the comparison between the poll chart and the later result is very close.

There are two things to note about this year's forecasts: first, the polls have fallen far short since the first debate and Trump's illness, and now the second debate has been cancelled. Canceling is good for Biden because he is prone to mistakes in debates. Biden now has a high chance of being elected as long as he doesn't make a big mistake or get sick.

One of the details is swing states. Trump won nine of the 12 swing states in 2016, according to a comprehensive Real Clear Politics poll. Trump now lags behind in 11 of these states and leads in only one.

But,It needs to be emphasized that the core of the election still depends on marginal factors. From a marginal point of view, how many people will vote for Biden?

This is mainly due to the fact that people who did not vote for Trump in 2016 will vote for him, and the number of them is obviously very small.

However, for those who voted for Trump or did not vote in 2016, many people will vote for Biden.On the wholeThe American people need politicians who have a sense of morality and justice. Trump basically violated the basic bottom line of many people, and although Americans do not necessarily approve of Democratic policies, they are highly likely to vote for Biden after trying the administration of the Trump administration.

Judging from all kinds of logical reasoning, we think Biden has a very high chance of winning.

Be optimistic about the opportunity of new energy theme

Q: what do you think of the relationship between Biden's election and new energy investment opportunities?

Takahashi:Biden has made many of his policies clearer. For example, in terms of infrastructure, he can solve two problems.

First, the infrastructure of the United States is indeed relatively backward and needs infrastructure. American infrastructure is not efficient, but it will be better than using helicopter money to stimulate the economy and, to some extent, solve the problem of wealth distribution. no, no, no.

Biden's emphasis on infrastructure is good for the United States in the long run. Moreover, Biden advocated a green energy strategy, an expectation that has recently reacted in the market, and photovoltaic-related stocks have performed well.

We have always been bullish on photovoltaic and new energy sectors. Because China is working hard to develop in this direction, Europe is also actively promoting it. At the policy level, for example, China recently announced that "carbon dioxide emissions will peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060". To achieve carbon neutrality, there will undoubtedly be more new energy generation.

When the United States, Europe and China all emphasize "green", there should be a lot of opportunities around the green theme of new energy.

On investmentWhy do I们EmphasizeTheme, notonlyIs it a plate?These two wordsIn terms of connotation and breadth有The difference.

Generally speaking, when people talk about stocks, they only talk about stocks. Investment themes can be expressed in many different asset classes.

If we say that green development and new energy are the same theme, then light energy and wind energy can be expressed in stocks. However, solar and wind energy is an electric economy, which can be expressed as copper in commodities; in bonds, different countries have different expressions.

For example, if you switch to an electricity economy, the situation in the countries that produce crude oil may be worse. If the price of crude oil falls, it may show deflation in some countries, and local bonds may rise.

For example, for emerging market oil exporters, the pressure will be greater. The country's fiscal pressure has increased and sovereign risk has become higher, so interest rates on its bonds are likely to rise.

So, from a macro point of view, there are more opportunities for a theme than for a single stock.

Q: from a stock point of view, photovoltaic valuation is already very high. What do you think of this?

Takahashi:Kaifeng's stock analysis emphasizes the "five good": good track, good company, good structure, good product, good price. Photovoltaic is obviously a good track.

As far as the stock price is concerned, the current price is really high. Since photovoltaic rose in March, many companies have increased several times. However, from another point of view, the high overall valuation shows that the head company has a strong ability to expand its purchasing power. Photovoltaic itself is a long industrial chain, in which structural opportunities can still be tapped. Even for an industry that has been bullish for a long time, there must be a certain time in the middle.

For photovoltaic expectations, the market is indeed very optimistic, but as to whether it is too optimistic, this is more difficult to grasp.

For photovoltaic, our core position will certainly have, no matter how high the valuation, it will not be reduced to zero. But on the margin, we will certainly make adjustments, as for when to adjust, it is a very artistic behavior. For example, the overall valuation of US technology stocks is very high, do you think it should be adjusted?Adjust or not对Capital flowTracking is very important.。

It is expected that ChinaMake up for the deficiency of the chip.Three to five yearsThe time of

Q: you just mentioned that China's domestic alternative companies will certainly affect the profits of US head companies. But there is a big gap between China and the United States in terms of technology. can Chinese technology companies really replace American head companies?

Takahashi:Our understanding may be different from that of many people. We did an analysis in early 2019, and it was said at that time: people always think that technology is a difficult thing, but we should note that if the investment in technology is large enough (the investment mechanism is better), technology companies are also fast to catch up.

Any product, even a high-tech product, can be replaced. Take 80 years of memory as an example, memory chips must have been very high-tech products in the 1970s, and Japanese companies had a 0% global market share in 1975.

By 1985, the market share of Japan had fallen to 50%, while that of the United States had dropped to about 30%. At this time, the United States was also in a hurry and signed an agreement with Japan with the Special 301 Act, requiring Japan to sell memory chips to the United States at non-market prices, while keeping a certain share of the Japanese market to the United States.

Even at that time, it took Japan a decade to replace something so high-tech. On the contrary, China has been investing in the semiconductor industry for many years, and it is only a matter of time before it is replaced.

The semiconductor industry is basically a winner-take-all, and the "123" of the Chinese market (the three companies with the strongest market share) are basically foreign companies, but it is important whether a country has "456" (the companies with the fourth, fifth and sixth market share). There must be "456" in any segment in China, and their market share is usually very low, basically in single digits.

Why is the market share low? Because "456" products are definitely not as good as "123", "456" products are usually expensive and of low quality. But,In the process of autonomy, the United StatesActive restriction「123」, its ChinaThere is a high probability that the market share will be affected, and at this time you will find that the market share of "456" has increased rapidly, perhaps in three to five years.

In fact, we are relatively optimistic about the speed at which Chinese companies can really catch up. According to the experience of Japan, South Korea and China in the autonomy of super computer chips, three to five years should be enough.

Q: with the election of Biden, what is the impact on the performance of different assets?

Takahashi:I think for the US stock market, it is positive in the short term and negative in the medium term. If Biden is elected, the market may rise because the game between China and the United States is expected to be more stable. But with the late introduction of tax policies by the Democratic Party and the possibility of inflation brought about by a change in the mode of fiscal stimulus, the pressure on the stock market will increase.

Just because the stock market in the United States is not good does not mean that the stock market in China is not good. We should make a distinction here. I think macro is becoming more and more important because we must subdivide each market. What are the different driving factors? the opportunities for China's stock market are mainly driven by the relatively high growth in the world, the declining national risk, and the spillover of water release funds in Europe and the United States.

As for the bond market, it may be relatively flat. But the possibility of a sharp fall in the bond market is slim because, after all, the Fed has said it will not raise interest rates for three years. Without raising interest rates for three years, the bond market will not fall even if inflation rises. In this context, the independent long time of China's bond market is approaching, and it has become very attractive as a hedge allocation for stock bulls.

There may be a bull market in commodities next year.

Q: what are your more optimistic assets?

Takahashi:Merchandise. In terms of foreign exchange assets, we have been firmly bearish on the US dollar and long on the RMB.

The logic of the commodity bull market, let's look at the market cycle first. Looking back over the past 30 years:

From 1990 to 2000, commodities were generally neutral.

From 2000 to 2008, commodities were a huge bull market.

Commodity pullback slightly after the 2008 financial crisis

After 2009, commodities were another bull market.

Overall, there was a big bull market in commodities from 2000 to 2010. But since 2010, commodities have basically been a big bear market. In terms of a simple cycle, the next decade could be a bull market. Of course, the above conclusion is based on the premise that the COVID-19 epidemic will not break out in the second half of the year and in the future. If a particularly big COVID-19 epidemic breaks out again after November, the whole global economy will certainly be bad, and the commodity bull market may have to wait.

However, for the commodity bull market, there are two points that I think we should pay attention to.

First of all, to discuss the overall commodity bull market, the middle needs to be subdivided. Over the past decade, the central bank printing money does not seem to drive the rise of commodities, the economy has not been driven, and there are even voices that the central bank printing money is not very effective, we do not agree with this view.

The logic is: if all central banks print money and inflation still does not rise, then the only option for the central bank is to continue to print money, which will surely lead to inflation.

Judging from the situation this year, it has been very extreme.

The total balance sheets of the world's four major central banks expanded by $600 billion a year from 2000 to 2007 and $1.3 trillion a year from 2008 to 2019.

The balance sheets of the world's four largest central banks expanded by $5 trillion in the first half of this year. In this process, the people's Bank of China is more convergent, briefly expanding and shrinking the table. On the contrary, the other three major central banks-the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan-have expanded significantly.

Most of the $5 trillion is sent directly to the common people, so who will the American people buy when they buy things? It depends on who can produce it. The experience of the past decade has proved that China.

Therefore, we judged in April this year that although the global epidemic will affect exports, China's exports will only weaken slightly and will not be as miserable as people think, and commodities will benefit in the process.

We are apt to overestimate the capabilities of developed countries.

Takahashi:After the central bank prints money, the money must eventually go somewhere. In the past, it mainly went to the US stock market, leading to the current valuation bubble of US stock valuations and "false" levels of wealth. In the future, the money will certainly go to places where there is growth. Around the world, although China is growing more slowly than before, it is still faster than Europe and the United States.

What we cannot ignore is that there is also growth in other emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, India, Africa and other "Belt and Road Initiative" regions.

Usually because developed countries have been good for too long, we tend to overestimate the capabilities of developed countries. If you look carefully, developed countries now account for less than 50 per cent of the global economy, while emerging markets account for more than 50 per cent. In 2000, the proportion was 70% in developed countries and only 30% in emerging markets. There is a big difference between them.

Moreover, after 2008, the contribution of developed countries to global economic growth in terms of increment is less than 1%. Emerging markets contribute more than 2amp 3, of which China probably contributes 1amp 3, while other countries contribute a little more. Looking to the future, this trend will be more obvious.

Q: why do you attach so much importance to emerging markets?

Takahashi:We can imagine what these countries will buy in the first place if emerging markets are growing well. It's definitely not software, it's infrastructure.

Therefore, if emerging markets are growing well, they will invest in infrastructure, and consumers need to buy refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines and cars. After buying these things, these countries need infrastructure again. This is where the growth model of emerging markets is very different from that of developed countries. All this translates into huge demand for commodities.

So for the commodity bull market, to sum up, there are three points, one is the new monetary environment, that is, the central bank printed too much money, the money will eventually be implemented, commodities are more real assets.

Second, emerging markets, specifically, commodities have financial properties, including gold, silver, non-ferrous, they are not high storage costs, nor perishable. At the same time, goods also have industrial properties. Emerging markets need iron ore, steel, cement, copper and so on.

Finally, there is new energy. Generators, batteries and charging functions of new energy vehicles also need a lot of copper; in order to reduce the weight of the car body, the role of aluminum alloy has also been brought into play. The demand for these goods is obvious.

The increase in agricultural products may continue.

Q: is the commodity bull market geographically global or for emerging markets?

Takahashi:The commodity itself is global, certainly regardless of emerging markets and other markets.

However, in terms of commodity pricing, it can be denominated in US dollars or in local currency. We see that the dollar is depreciating and commodity prices will rise better against the dollar and worse relative to emerging market prices such as the RMB. Because the RMB is supposed to be an important currency in emerging markets, it is likely to appreciate next year.

In fact, gold, silver and copper have all risen very well since April this year.

I have always emphasized the financial and industrial attributes of commodities. After March, this round of gold rose first, because after more money was printed, people bought gold first. When gold first started to rise, silver lagged far behind.

Why did silver rise less at that time? Is there any silver whose financial attribute is not as good as gold, and at that time many people thought that because the film was replaced by digital, the industrial attribute of silver was weakened. Silver metal is not as good as gold, it rusts and does not look good.

However, the recent rise in silver is particularly strong. So many analysts went to look for explanations and found that photovoltaic needed silver. Then once you accept a story, there will be a so-called Davis double click. Silver itself has been supported by financial attributes, but only financial attributes can not make it rise greatly. Once supported by industrial attributes, such as non-ferrous and silver, speculative demand will be further boosted in addition to the actual financial and industrial demand.

Whether precious metals or non-ferrous metals, not only can be kept in the warehouse, but also can be mortgaged financing. As a result, their potential space will be greater.

In addition, agricultural products have experienced a bear market for many years. But in the past year or two, China's agricultural stocks have almost gone. Recently, the weather is not as good as in previous years, and the acreage will be slightly worse, so agricultural products have risen very well recently, and the increase may continue for some time.

If agricultural products rise, it will pose a greater threat to global inflation. Because the rise in non-ferrous and iron and steel will be reflected in PPI, but the rise in agricultural products will be reflected in CPI. If inflation rises, people will go after commodities.

Q: if Biden is elected, what impact will it have on the gap between the rich and the poor and the economic structure of the United States?

Takahashi:If Biden is elected, he will subsidize the taxes of the rich to the non-rich in tax policy, but how? He may not spend money as simply as Trump does. It may be done in several ways:

The first is to subsidize state governments with poor finances. For example, to ease the financial pressure on the states that have been hit hard by the epidemic. When the state government gets the money, it may spend more on education and so on. From the perspective of taxation, it is such a process of distribution.

Second, after the Democratic Party takes office, its overall fiscal stimulus should be greater than that of the Republican Party. The Democratic Party will implement it to the lower classes through investment channels. Compared with the Republican Party, this method is actually not good for the stock market, but good for infrastructure.

Raising taxes on the rich is negative for stocks, but when government money seeps through infrastructure, it will help employment.