This article is edited by Deutsche Bank "Initiating with Buy & $24 PT: NIO emerging leader of the new Fab Four"》
Summary:Deutsche Bank released a report that NIO Inc. may become the next iconic car brand and maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of 24.dollar.
Deutsche Bank's long-singing logic mainly has three points. first, it believes that NIO Inc. is the leader of China's new forces and can co-exist and develop with Tesla, Inc. in the future. Secondly, by launching new cars and rushing into the luxury car market, 2025Nian Wei is expected to achieve 25 years.Annual sales of 10,000 units, with revenue exceeding 8002020-2025E CAGR 40%), and get 8-10%Margin before interest and tax. Finally, Deutsche Bank said that NIO Inc. 's current valuation is high and may remain volatile in the short term (including affected by Tesla, Inc. 's trend), but as monthly sales and terminal demand continue to grow, investors will accumulate bullish sentiment. NIO Inc. 's share price will rise again eventually.
First, NIO Inc. is the leader of new cars, with higher sales and stronger brand reputation.
Deutsche Bank said that with the support of many technology giants and local governments, a group of emerging Chinese carmakers are seeking to subvert the traditional car industry. They are "the new Fab Four": NIO Inc., XPeng Inc., ideal and Weimar.
Deutsche Bank emphasizes that NIO Inc. is "Fab Four".」的LeaderBecause it has stronger brand awareness, higher sales, and a proven operating record.
About "Fab Four"」The relationship with Tesla, Inc.Deutsche Bank believes that these two forces can coexist, because at present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is very low, only about 5%, and the broad market space can accommodate multiple players to compete with each other.
Deutsche Bank also cited the pattern of China's mobile phone market: several major domestic brands (Huawei, XIAOMI, etc.) + an American superbrand (Apple Inc) have a large market share, so judge that the car market will be a similar pattern.
II. Launch of new cars and rush into the luxury car market, 2025Annual sales will reach 25.Ten thousand sets
Deutsche Bank further analyzed NIO Inc. 's competitiveness and growth potential.。
Usually for a car company, the biggest challenge is how to stimulate consumers' desire to buy, and how to build reputation and loyalty around the brand.Deutsche Bank believes that NIO Inc. has solved the above challenges better at present.。
With ES6/8 's high-end SUV product line, high-quality after-sales service (original power exchange system), and the development of a strong software / AI-centric intelligent driving experience, NIO Inc. 's sales continued to grow, showing early signs of increasing brand reputation and awareness.Deutsche Bank stressed that Gao Da60%The introduction rate of car owners and a large number of media exposure prove that the current product strategy and operation play are effective.The above analysis supports Deutsche Bank's judgment that "NIO Inc. may become the next iconic car brand".
Purely from the product level, Deutsche Bank believes that NIO Inc. ES6 is highly competitive and cost-effective:
The original recharging service system can effectively solve the user's anxiety:
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank pointed out that NIO Inc. will release an intermediate sedan ET7 by the end of 2020 and enter the European market in the second half of 2021.
Thanks to EC6 opening deliveryDeutsche Bank expectsNIO Inc. delivered 11500 units in the third quarter of this year, 14000 in the fourth quarter and 40, 000 in 2020.
look into the future,2025The annual delivery volume is expected to reach 25.Ten thousand setsThis result corresponds to China's electric vehicle market share of 8-9% and luxury car market share of less than 7% respectively in 2025.
The following are the key operating and financial indicators forecast given by Deutsche Bank. NIO Inc. is expected to achieve revenue of 14.8 billion yuan (+ 90%) in 2020 and more than 80 billion yuan in 2025 (equivalent to 40% of 2020-2025E CAGR). 2H20 is also expected to have a gross margin of about 20 per cent (- 15 per cent in 2019), positive EBIT in 2022 and an EBIT margin of 8-10 per cent in 2025.
Valuation analysis: high valuation, but positive factors continue, given a "buy" rating, target price 24dollar
After experiencing a sharp rise in share prices, Deutsche Bank admitted that NIO Inc. 's current valuation is expensive, and behind the high valuation, in addition to the excitement of investors, NIO Inc. 's own record delivery data and profit margins also support the stock price.
Based on the recognition of NIO Inc. 's products and brand strategy, Deutsche Bank gave NIO Inc. a valuation multiple of 7.5 times EV/sales in 2021, with a reasonable valuation of US $30.268 billion and a corresponding target price of US $24 (the EV/sales valuation multiple is in line with that of other car companies such as Tesla, Inc., CATL and Li Auto Inc.).
Edit / gary