[Research Report Summary]
TeslaBattery Day was held, and cost reduction was the core goal. According to Tesla Battery Day, Tesla will make improvements in battery design, battery production, cathode materials, anode materials, PACK, etc., to achieve the goal of cost reduction and efficiency. Among them, total mileage increased by up to 54%, cost per kWh reduced by 56%, and production investment per GWh decreased by 69%. Overall, Tesla strives to reduce costs through improvements to the entire battery process.
Technological innovation is not revolutionary, but the ability to integrate industries cannot be ignored. Seen separately, none of Tesla's innovations in every aspect of this time are revolutionary; most of them are also exploring similar industries, for example, increasing the size of batteries, andNingde era (300750)CTP,BYD (002594)Blade batteries have similar ideas; CTB technology is similar to CTC in the Ningde era; the cathode is high in nickel and low in cobalt, and the negative electrode is increased in silicon, all of which are in line with the current material system. However, on the whole, Tesla brought these innovations together, redesigned, improved, and integrated industrial resources, and the ultimate leading edge that was formed cannot be ignored.
Tesla built its own battery factory. The traditional battery giant's position is still stable, and battery materials companies have ushered in new opportunities. Tesla's plan is to reach 100 GWh of battery production in 2022 and 3 TWh in 2030. We believe that although Tesla plans to build its own battery factory, mass production time is expected to be in 2022. At the same time, the technology system is still the current mainstream system, and the impact on traditional battery giants is limited in the short term. More importantly, Tesla's rapid development has a strong leading role in the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles as a whole, which is beneficial to the entire industry in the medium to long term. For battery materials companies, in the context of Tesla building its own battery factory, it is expected that new development opportunities will be ushered in.
Investment advice
New energy vehicles are an investment opportunity that can run throughout the year in 2020. The industrial chain ushered in substantial recovery in the second half of the year, and leading companies are worth sticking to. The basic outlook for photovoltaics is positive. Demand is expected to peak in the fourth quarter, and 2021 will officially enter the price parity stage. At the same time, the “14th Five-Year Plan” non-fossil energy consumption target is expected to exceed expectations, and PV installations may reach another level. Power grid investment is picking up, and UHV and charging piles will continue to gain strength as new infrastructure, with competitive opportunities.
Recommended attention: (1) Electric vehicles: Ningde Era (300750.SZ),Everweft lithium energy (300014)(300014.SZ),Dangsheng Technology (300073)(300073.SZ),Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812)(002812.SZ),Star Source Material (300568)(300568.SZ),Putailai (603659)(603659.SH),Shin Chubon (300037)(300037.SZ), etc.; (2) Photovoltaics:Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438)(600438.SH),Longji Co., Ltd. (601012)(601012.SH),Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. (002129)(002129.SZ),Foster (603806)(603806.SH),Follett (601865)(601865.SH),Jingao Technology (002459)(002459.SZ),Jinlang Technology (300763)(300763.SZ), etc.; (3) Power grid:Teruide (300001)(300001.SZ),Xu Ji Electric (000400)(000400.SZ),Guodian Nanrui (600406)(600406.SH),China West Power (601179)(601179.SH) etc.
Core Combinations
As of September 25, 2020, the cumulative yield of Galaxy Electric's new stock pool reached 70.39%, outperforming the power equipment and new energy industry (CITIC) index by 29.03pct.
October investment portfolio: Ningde Times, Tongwei Co., Ltd., Xu Ji Electric.
Risk warning
There is an obvious risk of a decline in electricity demand, insufficient consumption capacity for new energy power generation; product prices continue to decline due to increased competition; industry growth is slowing down due to falling subsidies; pattern changes brought about by technological innovation, etc.