share_log

“双节”后A股怎么走?53家私募:大概率宽幅修整

How did A-shares move after the “double festival”? 53 private placements: likely to be broadly retouched

富途研选 ·  Sep 30, 2020 15:17  · Exclusive

Author: Zhang Yuna

Looking forward to, there is another day, the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is coming!

This means that A shares (Hong Kong stocks) will be closed tomorrow. It is worth noting that as the US election approaches, there will be more and more uncertainties, and the news will change rapidly during the long holiday.

How can I get to A-share after the festival? What is the current position level of investment institutions? What do they think of the post-holiday market and specific opportunities?

In response to the above questions, a third-party agency rated by private equity funds recently launched a questionnaire survey on 100 private equity companies. According to the results of 53 private equity responses received,66.04% of private equity companies believe that A-shares will most likely maintain a wide trimming trend after the holiday, while technology, medicine and consumer stocks are still favored by 60.38% of private equity companies.

It is worth noting that although the attitude of a number of private equity is relatively neutral, but a number of private equity revealed that they will maintain a high position over the "double section".

logo

Private placement:Index recuperation or incomplete end

How can I get to A-share after the festival?

On this issue, in the view of Zhou Ming, co-founder and CEO of Lenze Investment,A shares will continue to rest and recuperate after the festival.

His logic is that 2019 and 2020 are the big years of A-shares, and it is relatively easy to make money. However, this is definitely not the norm in the market. The stock prices of many high-quality listed companies have experienced two waves of relatively obvious gains and will enter a period of shock and consolidation to digest valuations, while listed companies with relatively low stock prices can hardly continue to rise without macro-stimulus, performance improvement and other factors. Therefore, the combination of these two factorsThe recuperation of the index may not be completely over.

However, according to Li Shixian, director of banyan investment research,The A-share market continued to shrink before the National Day holiday, and the market investment enthusiasm gradually cooled, but it was still optimistic about the market performance after the holiday.

For the post-holiday and even the fourth quarter of the market, Li Shixian is still optimistic about investment opportunities in consumer, pharmaceutical and new technology industries. These are high-quality industries with excellent business models and represent future development. Judging from the evolution trend of the US stock market in the past 20 years, a number of great companies have been born in these areas. At the same time, we also try to avoid traditional industries with low valuations, which will be "value traps" in investment.

A number of private equity companies maintain high positions to celebrate the holidays.

It is worth noting that despite the recent market volatility, a number of private equity companies said that they are still operating in high positions.

Li Shixian said that the post-holiday market will return to the upward trend after the pessimism dissipates. In the choice of positionsBanyan investment still maintains a high position operation, which is mainly based on our optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market.Before the festival, the market has fallen to a certain extent, and the short-term decline of most stocks has fully reflected pessimistic expectations, equivalent to releasing certain risks. It is not wise to reduce positions at this time.

"although the performance of the current market is mediocre, we do not see much systemic risk for the time being. therefore,We will still maintain a heavy position.In the long run, though, we believe more in companies with good growth. Zhou Ming, co-founder and chief executive of Linze Investment, said.

In addition, Zeng Yu, director of investment research at Wing Tiger Investment, said,Market uncertainty is gradually eliminated, there are obvious signs of improving liquidity, long-term bullish on A-share capital market, will maintain high positions. Pro-cyclical low expectations undervalued, clear industrial trends, better competition pattern of leading enterprises will be a more suitable choice, while high expectations of high-rise sectors and stocks need to continue to guard against the risk of tail acceleration."

Interestingly, through the combing of the market performance in the past 10 years, Wind found that the number of A-share adjustments in the week before the festival was mostly, while the probability of rising after the festival was as high as 80%. The characteristics of large funds to reduce positions before the festival and increase positions after the festival are very obvious.

big

Edit: sabrina

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment