In 2020, when the "black swan" is widespread, financial markets are very volatile; now the military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region has once again attracted global attention, and the current situation is grim. will this become another black swan affecting global financial markets?
Vladimir Putin once again mediates the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Caucasus
On 27 September, the most serious conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region since 2016 broke out in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno Karabakh) region. Since then, the two countries accused each other of violating the cease-fire agreement and took the lead in launching a military offensive. Since then, the situation between the two sides has escalated continuously.
According to a report in Guangming Daily on the 30th, observers pointed out that Armenia announced the implementation of general military mobilization, while Azerbaijan entered a state of war, which clearly shows that this conflict is obviously different from the frictions over the years. If the two sides do not exercise restraint and the mediation efforts of the international community are not enough, the conflict may turn into an all-out war between Asia and Afghanistan.
As to which side fired the "first shot", the two sides held different opinions. According to the Russian satellite news agency, the Albanian Defense Ministry said on September 27 that Asian armed forces fired at settlements near the Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact, and the sub-Defense Ministry issued a message saying that the Nagorno-Karabakh area had been "shelled and attacked by missiles." The non-internationally recognized "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh" said that its "capital" Stepanakert and other settlements were shelled first.
The Russian satellite news agency quoted a spokesman for the Asian Defense Ministry as saying on the 28th that the army of the "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh" successfully stopped the offensive of Azerbaijan near the line of contact. He said that the National Defense Forces of the "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh" have caused a lot of losses to the enemy's fresh troops and equipment, and have destroyed 22 tanks and 10 armored vehicles, killing more than 370 enemy soldiers. The Afghan Defense Ministry announced that on the 27th and 28th, the Albanian army destroyed a large number of effective forces, military facilities and equipment of the Armenian army in battles in different directions at the front.
The ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus is a powder keg left over from the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After the outbreak of large-scale conflicts, it immediately became the focus of world public opinion. Russia, the United States and France, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is responsible for mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, expressed the hope that both sides of the conflict would exercise restraint.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone with Armenian Prime Minister Pachinyan again on the 29th to discuss the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region.
According to a statement issued on the Kremlin's website on the 29th, the two sides continued to discuss the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Putin expressed grave concern about the ongoing conflicts in the region. The call referred to the need to promote a ceasefire between the parties to the conflict and to take measures to downgrade the situation.
In addition, Armenia claims that Turkish FMY 16 warplanes shot down the Asian military plane, which both Azerbaijan and Turkey deny.
According to Xinhua News Agency reported on the 29th, the Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Stepaniyan said on the 29th that a Turkish Air Force Fmur16 fighter plane shot down an Asian Air Force Su-25 fighter plane in Armenian airspace on the same day. However, both Azerbaijan and Turkey denied this.
On the same day, the Armenian news agency quoted Stepanian as saying on his official social media account that Turkey's Fmur16 fleet took off from the airport of Azerbaijan on the same day to provide cover for Azerbaijani military aircraft. One of the FMY 16 fighters shot down an Asian Air Force Su-25 fighter plane that was on a mission in Armenian airspace. Stepanian said the pilot of the Su-25 fighter plane has been confirmed dead.
Terenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote on social media a few days ago that the danger of war was imminent and that "it is time for Russia, France and the United States, individually or jointly, to stop the situation from simmering."
Us stocks closed lower across the board, and the Chinese stocks of new energy vehicles lit up.
The three major U. S. stock indexes closed slightly lower on Tuesday.DowIt closed down more than 130 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, and the S & P 500 fell 0.48%. By the close, the Dow was down 0.48 per cent at 27452.66, the S & P was down 0.48 per cent at 3335.47 and the Nasdaq was down 0.29 per cent at 11085.25.
The rise and fall of large American technology stocks is mixed.Apple跌0.76%，Amazon跌0.92%，Netflix Inc涨0.58%，Alphabet Inc-CL C涨0.5%，Facebook Inc涨1.94%，Microsoft Corp跌1.04%。
American AirlinesStocks also fell across the board.Boeing CoDown 1.52%, American Airlines down 4%Delta Airlines跌2.3%，Southwest AirlinesDown 1.67%, United Airlines fell 3.98%.
However, the trend of the new energy vehicle plate is divided.TeslaDown 0.51%, China-listed stocksNIO Inc.The car rose nearly 11%, and its share price hit an all-time high of $21.12Li Auto Inc.Up nearly 6%.
In additionSogouThe signing of the final privatization agreement will becomeTencentThe transaction is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2020.SohuThe share price rose 11.42% and Sogou rose 2.31%.
With regard to company news, Alphabet Inc-CL C said that the company will implement app store rules from next year. Alphabet Inc-CL C has set aside one year for app developers to adjust, with a deadline of September 30, 2021, when app developers will have to use Alphabet Inc-CL C's payment system and will no longer be able to use its independent payment system. Alphabet Inc-CL C will take 30% of the purchase income in the app.
In addition, the US SEC accused Laksha Bohra, a former financial manager of Amazon.Com Inc, and her two family members of using insider information to trade the company's shares before the company released its results from 2016 to 2018, illegally making more than $1.4 million. They agreed to return all the ill-gotten gains, pay $118406 in pre-judgment interest and pay a fine of $1.106,399.
On the macro news, the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the United States continues to grow. Dr Anthony Fauci warned on Monday that the US was "in a bad position" as the cold weather approached. Investors are worried about the renewed outbreak in New York. New York City officials said on Monday that the city's one-day coronavirus test positive rate rebounded to more than 3 percent for the first time in months.
In addition, the first round of televised debates on the presidential election will be held in the United States. U.S. president Donald Trump will hold his first televised debate with Democratic nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday night Eastern time.
Goldman Sachs GroupA resounding Democratic victory could have a moderately positive impact on the S & P 500 earnings curve, he said.
Crude oil, natural gas plunge gold and silver continue to rebound
International oil prices fell across the board on Tuesday, with NYMEX crude oil futures down 3.67% at $39.11 per barrel and cloth oil down 3.5 per cent at $41.37 per barrel. Natural gas in the United States tumbled nearly 10% in a day, and is now trading at $2.522 per million British heat.
Us crude oil stocks fell by 831000 b / d to 494.4 million b / d last week, while US crude oil imports fell by 79000 b / d last week, according to the API report. U.S. API crude oil stocks for the week to September 25-831000 barrels, expected + 1.4 million barrels, previous value + 691000 barrels.
In terms of precious metals, COMEX gold futures closed 1.1% higher at $1903 an ounce on Tuesday, up for two days, while COMEX silver futures closed up 3.14% at $24.345 an ounce.
The world's largest silver ETF--iShares Silver Trust position is down 5.79t from the previous day, and the current position is 17125.74 tonnes.