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华尔街:巴菲特持仓涨幅最快的5只股中,这只股每年还能涨35%

Wall Street: Of the 5 fastest rising stocks in Buffett's holdings, this stock can still rise 35% a year

富途资讯 ·  Sep 29, 2020 22:40  · Discovery

Behind every enterprise, there is a soul.

In Tesla, Inc., it's Musk.

At Berkshire Hathaway, it is Buffett, the "pops" and "stock god".

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Under Buffett, Berkshire has returned an average of 20.3% a year since 1965, more than double the 10% compound annual return of the s & p 500 over the same period. There is no denying that Buffett's ability to identify value stocks and hold these brands for a long time is crucial to the success of himself and Berkshire shareholders.

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In recent years, however, we have felt a shift in Buffett's investment style by studying Berkshire's positions.

It is worth noting that Buffett's fondness for bank stocks and slow-growing essential consumer goods has not disappeared, but unlike in previous years, Buffett and his investment team are gradually inclined to invest in growth stocks.

In Berkshire's portfolio, the growth rate of fast-growing companies has improved significantly. According to Wall Street forecasts, based on the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three to five years, the following five stocks will rise the fastest in Buffett's portfolio.

Snowflake Inc: + 70.3% CAGR (5 years)

There is no doubt that the fastest growing company in Buffett's portfolio is Cloud Computing Unicorn.$Snowflake Inc (SNOW.US) $Wall Street expects the company to have a CAGR of 70.3% over the next five years.

Snowflake Inc listed on the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 16, EST, and its share price doubled on its first day, surging more than 110%, making it the largest software company in history, IPO. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought Snowflake Inc's shares through a $250 million private placement and agreed to buy more than 4 million shares from the company's predecessor, CEO.

Participating in the IPO is a rare investment for Buffett. "Berkshire has never participated in an IPO in the past 54 years," Buffett himself said in an interview in May last year.

Although the investment was made entirely by Buffett's deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Snowflake Inc's potential should not be underestimated because he spent 570 million US dollars on his first visit.

It is understood that Snowflake Inc's "track"--Cloud computing is the fastest growing, largest and most dynamic market in the computer industry, and the field of SaaS (Software as a Service) is considered to have great development prospects.IDC expects the potential market to reach $56 billion by 2020 and expand to $84 billion by 2023.

In terms of the company's own fundamentals, Snowflake Inc is one of the fastest growing companies in the SaaS field, with an astonishing growth rate. The company, which had revenue of less than 100m in the fiscal year to the end of January last year, broke through the round mark in July last year and more than doubled to $242 million in the first half of this year.

According to IPO disclosure data, Snowflake Inc's revenue was $265 million in fiscal year 2020 (as of January 31, 2020), an increase of 174 per cent compared with fiscal year 2019.The company expects sales to grow to $3.8 billion by fiscal year 2025.

From a business point of view, what excites investors is the many changes Snowflake Inc offers from traditional cloud service providers. For example, Snowflake Inc is a pay-as-you-go service that charges according to the amount of data the company stores and the points it uses (credit). This transparent cost model should allow customers to reduce their data warehouse costs.

In addition, Snowflake Inc's solution is built on the main infrastructure, that is, the IaaS provider. Compared with a single IaaS service, Snowflake Inc allows its users to easily share cloud-based data across platforms, regardless of who the IaaS provider is.

StoneCo: + 34.7% CAGR (5 years)

If Snowflake Inc hadn't stepped in, the fastest-growing stock in Buffett's portfolio would have been Financial Technology Solutions.$StoneCo Ltd. (STNE.US) $

According to Wall Street forecasts, StoneCo will be able to grow at an average annual rate of 35% over the next five years.

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In terms of business, the key to StoneCo's success lies in its focus on providing traditional and digital solutions to online and physical retailers in Brazil and other parts of South America. You know, many local small businesses in Brazil have a lot of financial management needs.

The intervention of StoneCo not only effectively helps these small enterprises simplify transactions, but also improves the efficiency of traditional banking business. Even during the worst blockade of the epidemic, StoneCo's total payments (TPV) increased by nearly 28% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year.

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Photo Source: StoneCo Q2 Financial report

In addition, the wide range of products and services offered by StoneCo is another factor that attracts its attention.It is reported that less than a year after the launch of the above-mentioned banking services, it had 285000 accounts as of July, of which monthly income from digital banks more than tripled from June.

In the long run, the Brazilian market is a growth opportunity for StoneCo that cannot be ignored.

Amazon.Com Inc: + 18.4% CAGR (5 years)

$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $It is not surprising that it appears on the list of the fastest-growing stocks. Just look at his stock price performance.

Wall Street predicts that Amazon.Com Inc will be able to grow at an average annual rate of 18% in the next five years.

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But it should be mentioned here that Amazon.Com Inc is not the direct target of Buffett himself, but was acquired by deputy Combs or Weschler in the first quarter of 2019.

Investors who have known about the company should know that Amazon.Com Inc's biggest source of income depends on its huge market size.Amazon.Com Inc controls 44 per cent of online sales in the US, according to BofA Merrill Lynch estimates. Although this is a generally low-margin market, Amazon.Com Inc has succeeded in maintaining consumer loyalty to his brand through the Prime membership model and a coveted logistics system.

However, Amazon.Com Inc's astonishing growth rate did not depend on his retail business.The company's real growth driver is Amazon Cloud Services (AWS), the cloud infrastructure division.

Here, the data is the most intuitive:

Even in the second quarter affected by the epidemic, AWS's revenue grew 29% year-on-year, and based on that growth, the company now has annual sales of more than $43 billion.

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Photo Source: Amazon.Com Inc Q2 Financial report

As the profit margin of cloud computing far exceeds that of retail, Amazon.Com Inc's explosive cash flow will depend entirely on the continued success of AWS.

MasterCard Inc: + 11.1% CAGR (4 years)

Payment service provider-$MasterCard Inc (MA.US) $It is the fourth fastest growing stock in Buffett's portfolio.According to Wall Street forecasts, MasterCard Inc will be able to achieve an average annual income growth of about 11% by 2024.

What investors need to know is that MasterCard Inc is a facilitator focused purely on providing payment services, not a lender. Of course, some of the company's competitors, such as banks, have lending because lending increases revenue through interest income during economic expansion, but it also puts them at risk of defaulting on loans during a recession.

For MasterCard Inc, because it does not provide lending services, it will not be directly affected during the continued decline in the US economic cycle. And because of that,The company's profit margin has remained at 40% or more over the past 12 months.

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Photo Source: MasterCard Inc FY19 Annual report

In developed countries or regions, MasterCard Inc may already have a relatively stable permeability, does this mean that its growth has reached a bottleneck? No.

MasterCard Inc still has a huge growth opportunity in emerging markets for decades. While the US will remain the company's core source of profits, deals in many parts of the world are still dominated by cash.

It is speculated that this will enable MasterCard Inc to expand into Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East to maintain its double-digit growth rate.

Visa:+8.5% CAGR (3 years)

MasterCard Inc's biggest competitor$Visa Inc (V.US) $Successfully reached the fifth fastest growing portfolio of Buffett.According to Wall Street estimates, Visa Inc will grow at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent by 2023 alone.

The logic of investing in Visa Inc is basically the same as that of investing in MasterCard Inc. Visa Inc also does not have a loan business, so the company is largely unaffected by rising credit defaults in times of economic turmoil.

However, unlike MasterCard Inc, Visa Inc has a much larger market share in the United States. In 2018, Visa Inc's total online transactions accounted for 53%, more than double MasterCard Inc's nearly 23% share. In 2019, comparable indicators are significantly ahead of their competitors.

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Photo Source: Visa Inc FY19 Annual report

This is very important because the United States is the world leader in GDP, and the growth of GDP in the United States is heavily dependent on the growth of consumption.

In addition, Visa Inc still has good opportunities for development in areas other than the United States. Visa Inc bought Visa Inc Europe in 2016, making it easier for the company to enter the eurozone market. In emerging markets, such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, Visa Inc also provides long-term growth opportunities.

Edit / isaac

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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