As the first debate is about to take place and the US presidential election is becoming more and more intense, every investor has to consider who will win the final victory for Trump or Biden.

Data from pollster RealClearPolitics show that Democratic candidate Joe Biden has always outperformed incumbent President and Republican candidate Donald Trump. If this continues into November, Biden will win the White House.

But Biden's advantage is reminiscent of the 2016 US election, and Hillary Clinton also had a big lead over Trump in the polls, even more so than Biden's current situation. at that time, the prevailing view in all kinds of mainstream media was that Trump was elected president, which was a joke. The New York Times even predicted that Mrs Clinton had an 86% chance of winning.

However, the businessmen who received a large amount of US campaign materials in Yiwu, as well as the Yiwu Index, which reflects the market situation in Yiwu, predicted Trump's victory early on.

Yiwu Index-Why can God predict it?

The Yiwu Index is the Yiwu China Commodity Index. Strictly speaking, this index selects a series of indicators that reflect the operation of the Yiwu small Commodity Wholesale Market for comprehensive treatment, which is used to fully reflect the price of Yiwu small commodities and the degree of market activity.

But there is no category specific to the US election in the official index. The real meaning of the "God Forecast" Yiwu Index, which is hotly discussed in media reports, is closer to the investigation of Yiwu orders. In Yiwu, a small commodity distribution center in China, known as the "World supermarket", alternative data can be obtained to spy on the dynamics of all kinds of major events around the world.

In 2016, Yao Dandan, owner of Yiwu Flag Factory, said in a video: "Trump's approval rating is quite high. 9 out of 10 people are supporting him." Dare to do it without a deposit, and what supports his view is the number of orders he has received.

Yao Dandan received his first orders for the US election in June 2016: 2000 Trump flags, the Beijing Youth Daily reported. Since then, there have been more and more material orders in support of Trump, and when Yao Dandan communicated with his local counterparts, he also found that most of the orders received were Trump's banner.

Similar to Yao Dandan, the owner of an arts and crafts factory received orders for masks from Trump and Hillary Clinton at the same time, but Trump ordered more than 500000 masks, far more than Hillary Clinton.

Wang Xianjun, secretary-general of the Yiwu Arts and Crafts Association, once said, "We have said for a long time that Trump has a better chance of winning. "

In fact, in addition to successfully predicting Trump's surprise victory in the last US election, the Yiwu Index has also scored quite a lot in the prediction of various major international conferences and competitions.

For example, this year, violent police law enforcement in the United States led to the death of black Freud, and the "Black Life Matters" affirmative movement broke out throughout the United States. At that time, Yiwu merchants received a large number of orders for materials with relevant propaganda words, and they accurately judged that the affirmative movement would not end in a short time.

Similar incidents include the "yellow vest" demonstration in France in 2019, when almost all of the supply of "yellow vest" came from Yiwu or its surrounding areas. The prediction of popular sports events such as the World Cup is also an area where Yiwu Index often shows its skills.

This time it's Trump.

So how are the orders in Yiwu this year?

According to an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Li Qingxiang (a pseudonym), a small business in Yiwu, has already asserted the result of this year's election, "of course Trump wins." "

It is reported that:

She is so sure because she has mastered a group of mysterious "Yiwu indexes".

Li Qingxiang pulled out a 5-foot-long and 3-foot-wide blue aid flag from a sack under the shelf, emblazoned with the words "Trump 2020" (Trump 2020) and a line of incumbent US President Donald Trump's re-election slogan "keep America Great" (Keep America Great).

Since the end of last year, her factory in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province has "produced" more than 100,000 such flags, each with a wholesale price of 4.80 yuan, while the flag of Democratic Party candidate Biden of the same size has only "produced" a few thousand.

As a result, she is confident that Trump has a better chance of winning than challenger Joe Biden, and that "orders will not be falsified."

A salesman surnamed Zhou from another Yiwu tourism supplies company also said that at the end of last year, the factory began to receive orders for the flag of aid for the US election. At first, it was Trump's flag of aid, and there were more than 10 designs in the factory. In the past two months, some orders from Biden have come in one after another, but there is only one pattern, and the number is less than 1/5 of Trump's flag.

At the same time, Hong Kong media also recently investigated and interviewed Boss Cheng, who is engaged in the clothing trade in Yiwu. He said that Trump has sold a lot of baseball caps this year, with the largest order of 5,000 units. A textile mill boss said that the orders received so far are still dominated by promotional materials around the Trump campaign, while there are few other candidates, and he believes that Trump is more likely to win this year.

In the face of the one-sided "Yiwu Index" indicating that Trump will win the election, some analysts pointed out that a large part of the people who support Trump prefer the traditional campaign model and are keen to see colorful campaign promotional materials. this feature is much more pronounced than Democratic supporters, so the number of orders for campaign materials has nothing to do with the election results.

# who do you think will win the election? welcome to give your prediction in the comments section.