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美股前瞻 | 分歧严重!小摩称调整将结束,富国银行却称要远离美股

US Stock Outlook | The differences are serious! Xiao Mo says the adjustment will end, but Wells Fargo says it will stay away from US stocks

富途资讯 ·  Sep 28, 2020 20:30

Uncertainty has soared, while US equity funds have suffered the third-largest outflow in history, while hedge funds have All In! Piedmont Lithium soared more than 220% before trading, signing a lithium ore contract with Tesla, Inc.; Inovio plummeted more than 30% before trading, and the company suspended phase II to III COVID-19 vaccine trials; Model Y was localized in the first quarter of next year.

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Global macro

  • Xiao Mo: the adjustment of US stocks is basically over.

John Normand, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, said it may take another two months to resolve the uncertainty about the extent of the economic slowdown and the direction of US policy, but that does not mean the market is bound to fall further in October and November. Assuming that global economic growth does not develop below trend in the fourth quarter, the market adjustment may have gone through 3/4.

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  • Wells Fargo & Co: it's a bit too risky to put money into US stocks at present.

Christopher Harvey, head of securities strategy at Wells Fargo & Co, said that given that the US stock market is too vulnerable to another correction and a 50 per cent surge in volatility, it is not time to put new money into stocks. He lists two key factors for this view: a potentially controversial US election and the resurgence of the recent US epidemic, which is likely to have a longer impact on US stocks.

  • Morgan Stanley: waiting is the hardest, and the trading environment will deteriorate in the next 5 weeks.

Michael Wilson, head of U. S. equity strategist Morgan Stanley, believes that uncertainty in financial markets has almost never been so high. Futures markets are pricing higher risk for the US election, which is not common in previous years. As a result, Michael Wilson believes that in the next 4-5 weeks, the market will become more volatile and the trading environment will be more difficult.

  • The futures of the three major stock indexes of US stocks rose before the market.

The futures of the three major US stock indexes rose before trading, including Dow futures up 1.37%, Nasdaq futures up 1.95%, and S & P 500 index futures up 1.40%.

  • 10 years without paying taxes? Trump flatly denied: spreading rumors!

According to media reports, US President Trump paid only $750 in federal income tax in 2016 and 2017. What is even more exaggerated is that he did not pay taxes for 10 of the 15 years before he was elected president. However, Trump later flatly denied the report and reiterated that he only shared tax returns after the audit.

  • The U.S. Department of Commerce says it will abide by the federal judge's decision on TikTok

The Federal District Court of the United States District of Columbia ruled on the 27th to suspend the implementation of the US government's executive order to remove TikTok from the US mobile app store. The U.S. Department of Commerce said in a statement on its website that it would comply with the court's injunction and had taken immediate measures. In addition, Vanessa Papas, general manager of TikTok USA, tweeted that she was pleased with the US court's decision to suspend the executive order to remove TikTok from the shelves.

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  • Us equity funds encounter the third largest outflow in history! Is there a complete change in the popularity of US stocks?

Last week, ETF, a US equity fund, saw outflows of $26.87 billion, the third-largest weekly outflow ever, according to EPFR. Just a week ago, US equity funds brought in $22.67 billion, the biggest weekly inflow since March 2019. The record mood reversal was driven by despair caused by high beta and momentum changes, with ETF, which invests mainly in the technology sector, suffering outflows worth $1.23 billion, the largest amount since global stock markets fell in December 2018.

  • Two months before the election, hedge fund all in

With less than two months to go before the US election, any move in the US election will have an impact on the market, with volatility soaring, which is exactly what hedge funds are good at. According to Goldman Sachs Group, the net position of hedge fund market participation (net exposure) reached 95 per cent, a five-year high.

  • European stock markets generally rose.

European stock markets generally rose, with Germany's DAX30 index up more than 3%, Britain's FTSE 100 index up 1.67% and France's CAC40 index up more than 2%.

Market source: Yingwei financial situation

Hot news

  • XPeng Inc. has received 4 billion yuan in financing to build the factory, which is now up more than 8%.

$XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US) $The local government agreed to provide the company with 4 billion yuan in financing to help the electric car maker set up a production base in Guangzhou and help the company expand, it said. The new plant, which will start production in December 2022, will provide facilities for research and development, manufacturing, vehicle testing, sales and other smart travel. XPeng Inc. is now up more than 8 per cent.

  • It is reported that the Baidu meter has been divided and broken down to Science and Technology Innovation Board's listing.

One who approaches$Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US) $According to people, Baidu, Inc. plans to spin off Xiaodu (including intelligent hardware and AI voice interaction system two parts) independent financing, and is likely to choose to Science and Technology Innovation Board listing, has made some adjustments in the organizational structure. Baidu, Inc. 's public relations department said it would not comment.

  • NIO Inc. signed an agreement of US $600 million to subscribe for the new registered capital of NIO Inc. (Anhui) Holdings Co., Ltd.

$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $An agreement worth US $600m will be signed to subscribe for the new registered capital of NIO Inc. (Anhui) Holdings Co., Ltd. NIO Inc. will hold a total of 86.5 per cent of NIO Inc. 's controlling stake after completing the subscription and redemption.

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  • BABA Global investors Conference: 70% of the new users come from the sinking market

$BABA (BABA.US) $The 2020 Global Investor Conference will be held online. Jiang Fan, president of Tmall, Taobao, revealed that BABA's annual active consumers in China's retail market reached 742 million, and the number of mobile monthly active users increased by 119 million, of which 70% of the new users came from the sinking market. It is expected that there is still a lot of room for growth in the next two to three years.

  • Sina agreed to privatize New Wave at $43.30 per share, up nearly 6 per cent.

$Sina (SINA.US) $Agreed to be privatised by New Wave, Chao's fund, at $43.30 a share, at a 7.7 per cent premium to the closing price on Sept. 25. Sina is up nearly 6%.

  • Weibo Corp's Q2 revenue decreased by 10% year-on-year, and the number of daily active users increased by about 18 million.

$Weibo Corp (WB.US) $Second-quarter revenue was $387 million, down 10 per cent from a year earlier. The net profit of homing was $198 million, up 92.6 per cent from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $0.86, compared with $0.46 in the same period last year. As of June 2020, the number of monthly active users (MAU) of Weibo Corp was 523 million, a net increase of about 37 million over the same period last year. Mobile MAU accounts for about 94% of MAUs. The average number of daily active users (DAU) was 229 million, a net increase of about 18 million over the same period last year. The company's share price is up nearly 8%.

  • Bilibili Inc. CEO Chen Rui: with the advent of the 5G era, every Internet user is a video user.

At the 2020 China Internet Media Forum Industry Forum$Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) $Chen Rui, chairman and CEO, said that with the advent of the 5G era, every Internet user is a user of video, because video is the most natural means of communication, and it is also the most user-friendly expression.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's 3nm process plans to be put into large-scale production in 2022, leaving most of the first wave of production capacity to Apple Inc.

It is reported that after the large-scale production of the 5nm process,$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $The next major chip process that will be put into production will be 3nm, which is currently moving forward as planned, with risky trial production planned for 2021 and large-scale production in the second half of 2022. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd 3nm process has prepared 4 waves of production capacity, most of which will be left to their big customers.$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $

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  • Tesla, Inc. recruited a large number of local R & D personnel in China, and Model Y was localized in the first quarter of next year.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Tao Lin, vice president, said at the Shanghai Pudong Auto Show that the company is speeding up localization. "We are also recruiting a large number of R & D designers, software and hardware personnel in China," she said. As to whether Tesla, Inc. will continue to optimize costs and reduce prices, Tao Lin said that Tesla, Inc. 's Model 3 is already produced in China, and the localization of Model Y will take place in the first quarter of next year.

  • Tesla, Inc. signed a lithium ore contract with an Australian company with an annual supply of more than 50, 000 tons, which soared 280% at one point.

Australian lithium mining co.$Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL.US) $It was announced on Monday$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Signed a cooperation agreement, the company will supply Tesla, Inc. with high-purity lithium ore. Tesla, Inc. will purchase 1/3 of its planned annual output of spodumene concentrate (160000 tons) at a fixed price during the first five years of cooperation, that is, annual supply will exceed 50, 000 tons. After the contract expires, the parties may choose whether to renew the agreement for another five years, with the scheduled delivery time from July 2022 to July 2023. Piedmont Lithium, which soared 280% at one time, is now up nearly 200%.

  • Boeing Co announced that he would make further layoffs to cope with the predicament.

According to reports,$Boeing Co (BA.US) $It is grappling with a sharp drop in aircraft sales and the rising cost of grounded Boeing 737 Max aircraft. About 170 middle managers, including 70 from Boeing Co's commercial aircraft division, accepted a buyout offer, including an one-year salary, according to people familiar with the matter. The first vice presidents and senior managers to accept the terms will leave on October 2, and the company will usher in a second wave of departures later this year.

  • Inovio plummeted more than 30% before trading, and the company suspended COVID-19 vaccine trials in the second to third stages.

American Biopharmaceutical Company$Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO.US) $It plummeted more than 30% before trading, and the company reported suspending some of COVID-19 's vaccine trials, which are in stages II to III.

Edit / Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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