Textile and garment industry weekly report: Nike's profit increased 11% in 21Q1, the highest growth rate in China

海通证券股份有限公司 · Sep 27, 2020 18:51

原标题：纺织与服装行业周报：耐克21Q1利润同增11% 中华区增速第一来源：海通证券股份有限公司

耐克公布21Q1 业绩，净利润同比增长11%。耐克公布21Q1 业绩，在全球疫情波动下整体业绩稳定，净利润仍增长11%。在2020 年6-8 月的季度，公司实现收入106 亿美元，同比下降1%，净利润15 亿美元，同比增长11% ，净利率14.33%，同比增1.5pct，毛利润47 亿美元，毛利率44.8%，同比降 0.9pct ，毛利率已恢复至疫情前水平，2020Q4（2020 年3-5 月）毛利率37.3%，2020Q3（2019.12-2020.02）毛利率44.3%。疫情期间供应链成本上升，以及部分折扣促销措施导致毛利率下降，而整体库存保持健康，期末库存较上季度末下降9%，另一方面，超预期的消费者需求抵消了该不利影响，最终毛利水平回归疫情前水平。销售及管理费用同比下降11% ，主要因有23%来自直播体育营销，这部分费用因体育赛事推迟而减少，同比下降33% 。

Q1 大中华区收入同增6%，列各区域第一。①分区域来看，大中华区增长最快，显示出最强的复苏迹象，21Q1 实现收入17.80 亿美元，同比增6%，北美地区实现收入42.25 亿美元，同比下降2%，EMEA 和APLA 地区收入规模分别为29.10 亿美元、10.99 亿美元，分别同比5%、-18%。②从区域收入占比来看，中国区占比略有提升，从去年同期16%提升至今的17%，北美、EMEA 和APLA的占比分别为40%、27%、10%。③从区域盈利能力看，大中华区盈利能力最强，EBIT/收入为39%，北美、EMEA 和APLA 的息税前利润率分别为31%、24%、25%，四个地区该比例分别同比-1.2 pct 、5.2 pct 、1.8 pct 、0.1 pct。

④从业务结构看，Nike 品牌、匡威收入分别为100 亿美元、5.63 亿美元，同比-1%、1%。

受益于电商及工厂店，大中华区率先修复。大中华地区收入17.80 亿美元，同比增6%，率先于全球实现恢复性增长，领跑全球，主要受益于电商及工厂店业务发力。从细分品类看，鞋类收入12.51 亿美元，同比增长7%，服饰收入4.78亿美元，同比增3 %，配饰收入0.51 亿美元，同比增2 %。

DTC 占比再提升，高转化确保线下店恢复。21Q1 公司的DTC 业务实现收入37 亿美元，同比增12%，占比达35%，较20Q1 的31%提升4pct。 Nike 品牌电商增速达82%，高速发展的电商渠道已经成为Nike 直营增长的重要驱动力。本季度北美、大中华区及EMEA 的线下门店已全部开业，90%的APLA 线下门店也已重开业，但客流量仍有所下滑，然而在耐克品牌较高消费者认可度的影响下，仍实现较高门店转化率，弥补客流补足的不利影响。

投资建议。我们认为运动服需求或加速回升，主要因：1）国际运动赛事举办在即，奥委会发布东京第32 届奥运会不迟于2021 年夏天，第19 届亚运会将于杭州举办，一系列国际赛事的开展将带动运动需求上涨；2）疫情在客观上提升了公众对健康的重视度，人们将更加积极参与运动活动；3）8 月，教育部回应了政协十三届全国委员会第三次会议中关于出台刚性措施强化青少年体育教育的提案，明确表示“保证青少年每日锻炼时间”、“加强青少年体育锻炼保障措施”，政策红利持续加码，将推动体育服饰、器材等产品需求持续增加。建议关注具备运动属性的服饰公司，包括安踏体育、宝胜国际、滔搏、比音勒芬。

风险提示。消费者喜好改变，行业竞争加剧，经济下行零售环境疲软。

Original title: textile and clothing Industry Weekly report: Nike Inc's 21Q1 profit increased by 11% the first source of growth in China:Haitonglimited company

Nike Inc announced 21Q1 results, net profit increased 11% compared with the same period last year. Nike Inc announced 21Q1 results, in the global epidemic fluctuations under the overall performance is stable, net profit is still up 11%. In the June-August quarter of 2020, the company achieved revenue of US $10.6 billion, down 1% from a year earlier, net profit of US $1.5 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year, a net profit rate of 14.33%, a year-on-year increase of 1.5pct, a gross profit of US $4.7 billion, a gross profit margin of 44.8%, a year-on-year decline of 0.9pct, and a gross profit margin of 44.3% for 2020Q4 (March-May 2020), which was 37.3% for 20Q3 (2019.12-2020.02). The increase in supply chain costs during the epidemic and some discounted promotional measures led to a decline in gross profit margin, while overall inventory remained healthy, with ending inventory down 9% from the end of the previous quarter. On the other hand, higher-than-expected consumer demand offset the adverse impact, and eventually gross margin levels returned to pre-epidemic levels. Sales and administrative expenses fell 11% year-on-year, mainly because 23% came from live sports marketing, which was reduced by 33% due to the postponement of sporting events.

Q1 Greater China revenue increased by 6%, ranking first in all regions. From the perspective of ① sub-region, Greater China is the fastest growing region, showing the strongest signs of recovery. 21Q1 realized revenue of US $1.78 billion, up 6% from the same period last year, while revenue from North America reached US $4.225 billion, down 2% year-on-year. The revenue of EMEA and APLA was US $2.91 billion and US $1.099 billion, respectively, 5% and-18% respectively. In terms of regional income share, China's share rose slightly, from 16 per cent in the same period last year to 17 per cent today, compared with 40 per cent in North America, 27 per cent in EMEA and 10 per cent in APLA. From the perspective of regional profitability, Greater China is the most profitable, with 39% of EBIT/ revenue, 31%, 24% and 25% of EBIT margins in North America, EMEA and APLA, respectively, compared with-1.2 pct, 5.2 pct, 1.8 pct and 0.1 pct in the four regions.

④ from the business structure, Nike brand, Converse revenue of $10 billion, $563 million, respectively, 1% year-on-year.

Benefiting from e-commerce and factory stores, Greater China took the lead in repairing. The Greater China region has a revenue of US $1.78 billion, up 6% from the same period last year, taking the lead in achieving restorative growth in the world, mainly benefiting from the strength of e-commerce and factory store business. In terms of sub-categories, footwear revenue was $1.251 billion, up 7% year-on-year, clothing revenue was $478 million, up 3% year-on-year, and accessories revenue was $51 million, up 2%.

The proportion of DTC increases again, and the high conversion ensures the recovery of offline stores. 21Q1's DTC business achieved revenue of US $3.7 billion, an increase of 12% over the same period last year, accounting for 35%, and an increase in 4pct over 20Q1's 31%. Nike brand e-commerce growth rate of 82%, the rapid development of e-commerce channel has become an important driver of Nike direct growth. This quarter, offline stores in North America, Greater China and EMEA have all opened, and 90% of APLA offline stores have also reopened, but passenger volume has still declined. However, under the influence of the high consumer recognition of the Nike Inc brand, it has still achieved a high store conversion rate to make up for the adverse impact of complementary passenger flow.

Investment advice. We believe that the rebound in demand for sportswear may be mainly due to: 1) the international sports events will be held soon, the Olympic Committee will release the 32nd Olympic Games in Tokyo no later than the summer of 2021, and the 19th Asian Games will be held in Hangzhou. A series of international events will lead to an increase in sports demand. 2) the epidemic has objectively increased public attention to health, and people will participate more actively in sports activities. 3) in August, the Ministry of Education responded to the proposal made at the third session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee to introduce rigid measures to strengthen youth physical education, making it clear that "ensuring the daily exercise time of young people" and "strengthening the safeguard measures for young people's physical exercise" and that the policy dividend will continue to increase the demand for sports clothing, equipment and other products. It is recommended to pay attention to apparel companies with sports attributes, including ANTA Sports Products, Baosheng International, Topsports International Holdings Limited,Biyin Lefen.

Risk hint. Consumer preferences change, industry competition intensifies, and the economic downturn in the retail environment is weak.

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纺织与服装行业周报：耐克21Q1利润同增11% 中华区增速第一

Textile and garment industry weekly report: Nike's profit increased 11% in 21Q1, the highest growth rate in China

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