S&P: Confirming the “A-” long-term issuer credit ratings of China Travel Group and Hong Kong China Travel Group, and the outlook is raised to “stable”

久期财经 · Sep 15, 2020 11:31

久期财经讯，9月15日，标普将中国旅游集团有限公司(China Tourism Group Corp. Ltd.，简称“中国旅游集团”)和香港中旅(集团)有限公司(China Travel Service (Holdings) Hong Kong Ltd.，简称“香港中旅集团”)的评级展望从“负面”调整至“稳定”。标普同时确认两家公司的长期发行人信用评级为“A-”，以及香港中旅集团的有担保高级无抵押票据长期发行评级为“A-”。

由于中国旅游集团的复苏速度快于标普预期，标普将该公司的展望调整为“稳定”。标普现在预测，该集团2020年的EBITDA将下降33%-38%，而标普之前的预测是下降40%-50%。中国旅游集团能够迅速将重点转移到针对旅客的在线销售上。海南免税销售额的大幅跃升也是一个重要原因。在成本方面，该公司获得了一些免租期，并正在将所有机场特许经营费按销售额的百分比进行调整。这两项举措将在过渡期内支持该公司的EBITDA利润率。因此，标普现在预测，到2020年底，中国旅游集团的债务/EBITDA之比将降至3倍以下，比标普最初预计的2021年要快。

标普确认了中国旅游集团的“A-”发行人评级，这是因为标普认为，中国旅游集团将保持其作为中国最大免税店运营商的主导地位，并且拥有90%的市场份额。

中国旅游集团的免税业务将比其他业务部门表现更好。免税销售额占该公司总销售额的60%左右，占EBITDA的70%。在2020年初疫情爆发后，中国旅游集团迅速采取行动，在供应商的支持下扩大了在线销售。该公司针对的是以前从中国旅游集团购买过商品的旅客。同时，其海南门店的销售额增长非常强劲，2020年上半年达到85亿元人民币，而2019年全年为130亿元人民币。国内旅游的恢复和优惠政策的变化(包括增加免税购物配额)是重要的驱动因素。因此，尽管没有国际旅客，但标普预计其免税业务的收入同比仅会下降0%至5%。

中国旅游集团的旅行社、主题公园和酒店业务将出现严重恶化。标普预计，2020年非免税业务收入将下降50%至60%。早在COVID-19疫情发生之前，旅行社业务就面临着巨大的竞争压力。标普认为，非免税业务的收入在2021年后才会恢复到疫情前的水平。

中国旅游集团2020年的盈利能力将略有下降。该公司能够调整成本结构，并将部分固定租金转换为可变成本。特许经营费用约占该公司免税业务收入的30%。该公司正在与主要机场协商减少固定特许经营费用。标普认为，鉴于其庞大的规模、雄厚的财务实力和国有企业背景，中国旅游集团将达成协议。在这种情况下，中国旅游集团2020年可节省高达40-50亿元人民币的运营费用。标普计算了其中的一部分，并预测该公司2020年的EBITDA利润率将在9.5%-10.5%之间，而2019年为12.4%。

标普认为，尽管最近出现了一些新的竞争对手，但中国旅游集团仍将保持其在免税购物市场的领先地位。该行业受到高度监管，在中国政府今年颁发三张新牌照之前，该行业只有七家公司。随着时间的推移，政府有可能发放更多的牌照以促进竞争。

然而，目前新的竞争对手难以克服中国旅游集团的规模、运营经验和成本优势。过去几年，该公司在上海和北京的门店保持了两位数的增长。该集团还利用其在主要机场的主导地位，与全球和国内供应商进行谈判。因此，与国内零售商相比，中国旅游集团具有价格优势。另一方面，标普认为中国旅游集团的毛利率在几年后可能会面临一些压力，原因是竞争对手纷纷增加门店数量。

标普预测，中国旅游集团2020年的债务/EBITDA比率将保持在2.4-2.9倍之间，2021年将降至2.0-2.4倍。标普预计，2020年该公司将产生35-40亿元人民币的营运现金流和20-25亿元人民币的自由营运现金流。2020年上半年免税业务产生了43亿元人民币的营运现金流，高于去年同期的27亿元人民币，原因是租金较低。标普预计，中国旅游集团今年将大幅减少资本支出，只关注海南业务的建设。

标普继续将香港中旅集团视为中国旅游集团的核心子公司，因其发挥着中国旅游集团签证办理方面的独家政策职能。香港中旅集团也由中国旅游集团全资拥有。尽管标普预计，随着中国旅游集团的扩张，香港中旅集团将为集团带来较低的收入和毛利润，但标普预计，香港中旅集团将占集团资产的约70%，并与中国旅游集团完全整合。

标普预计，如果中国旅游集团出现财务困难，中国政府将出手支持。标普对政府支持的评估是基于中国政府向中国旅游集团提供紧急流动资金和将旅游相关资产转移给该公司的记录。

与评级和展望行动相关的环境、社会和治理(ESG)因素：

健康与安全

中国旅游集团的“稳定”展望反映了标普的预期，即集团的旅游相关活动将更快地从COVID-19的影响中恢复。因此，香港中旅集团的评级和展望将与中国旅游集团保持一致。

中国旅游集团的“稳定”展望同时反映了标普的预期，即中国国内旅游的恢复将有助于加速该公司的业务复苏，海南和在线销售的增长就表明了这一点。租金优惠和向纯佣金租金的转变(短期或更长时间)将减轻EBITDA的压力。标普预测，到2020年，该集团的债务/EBITDA比率将改善到3倍以下，而标普之前的预期是4.0-4.5倍。

如果中国旅游集团大幅增加资本支出或进行大规模收购，使其债务/EBITDA之比超过3.0倍，标普可能会下调其评级。该公司一直在海南投资城镇购物和其他零售店。根据佣金租金支付结构的不同，这有可能降低中国旅游集团的长期盈利能力。

在不太可能的情况下，如果标普对以下任何一项的评估减弱，则该公司的评级可能会被下调：(1)香港中旅集团对中国旅游集团的地位和重要性；或(2)政府对中国旅游集团给予特别支持的可能性。如果香港中旅集团作为中国香港和中国澳门地区居民的唯一签证办理和管理实体的政策角色发生变化，或者如果该业务与中国旅游集团分离，就可能发生这种情况。

如果中国旅游集团能够加强和改善其市场地位、规模和地域多样性，同时维持利润率扩张和低杠杆率，标普可能会上调其评级。如果中国旅游集团能够加强其市区和海外零售业务，同时保持其在中国机场免税业务中的主导地位，评级可能上调。如果中国旅游集团能够将其债务/EBITDA之比持续降至2.0倍以下，标普也可能上调其评级。如果改公司以更保守的方式进行投资或收购，就可能发生这种情况。

Jiuzhong Financial News, September 15, S & P will China Travel Group Co., Ltd. (China Tourism Group Corp. Ltd., referred to as "China Tourism Group") andHong Kong China Travel ServiceThe rating outlook of (Group) Limited (China Travel Service (Holdings) Hong Kong Ltd.,) has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable". S & P also confirmed the credit rating of the two companies as "A -" for long-term issuers and "A -" for the long-term issuance of secured senior unsecured notes by the China Travel Service Group of Hong Kong.

S & P adjusted its outlook to "stable" as China Tourism Group recovered faster than S & P expected. S & P now forecasts that the group's EBITDA will fall by 33 per cent in 2020, compared with S & P's previous forecast of a decline of 40 per cent, 50 per cent. China Travel Group can quickly shift its focus to online sales aimed at tourists. The sharp jump in duty-free sales in Hainan is also an important reason. In terms of cost, the company has been granted some rent-free periods and is adjusting all airport franchise fees as a percentage of sales. The two measures will support the company's EBITDA margin during the transition period. As a result, S & P now forecasts that the debt-to-EBITDA ratio of Chinese tourism groups will fall below three times by the end of 2020, faster than S & P's original estimate of 2021.

S & P confirmed China Travel Group's "A -" issuer rating because it believes it will maintain its dominant position as the country's largest duty-free store operator and has a 90 per cent market share.

The duty-free business of China Tourism Group will perform better than other business units. Tax-free sales account for about 60 per cent of the company's total sales and 70 per cent of EBITDA. After the outbreak in early 2020, China Tourism Group moved quickly to expand online sales with the support of suppliers. The company is aimed at tourists who have previously bought goods from China Tourism Group. At the same time, sales at its Hainan stores grew very strongly, reaching 8.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2020, compared with 13 billion yuan for the whole of 2019. The recovery of domestic tourism and changes in preferential policies, including an increase in duty-free shopping quotas, are important drivers. As a result, although there are no international tourists, s & p expects revenue from its tax-free business to fall only 0% to 5% year-on-year.

The travel agency, theme park and hotel business of China Tourism Group will deteriorate seriously. S & p expects revenue from non-tax-exempt businesses to fall by 50% to 60% in 2020. As early as before the outbreak of COVID-19, the travel agency business was facing tremendous competitive pressure. S & P believes that revenue from non-tax-exempt businesses will not return to pre-epidemic levels until 2021.

The profitability of China Tourism Group will decline slightly in 2020. The company can adjust the cost structure and convert part of the fixed rent into variable costs. Franchise fees account for about 30% of the company's tax-free business income. The company is negotiating with major airports to reduce fixed franchise fees. S & P believes that given its large size, strong financial strength and state-owned enterprise background, China Tourism Group will reach an agreement. Under such circumstances, China Tourism Group can save as much as 40-5 billion yuan in operating expenses in 2020. S & p calculates some of this and forecasts that its EBITDA margin will be between 9.5% and 10.5% in 2020, compared with 12.4% in 2019.

S & P believes that despite the recent emergence of some new competitors, Chinese tourism groups will maintain their leading position in the duty-free shopping market. The industry is highly regulated and there were only seven companies before the Chinese government issued three new licences this year. Over time, it is possible for the government to issue more licences to promote competition.

However, at present, it is difficult for new competitors to overcome the size, operational experience and cost advantages of China Tourism Group. Over the past few years, the company has maintained double-digit growth in its stores in Shanghai and Beijing. The group also uses its dominant position in major airports to negotiate with global and domestic suppliers. Therefore, compared with domestic retailers, China Tourism Group has a price advantage. On the other hand, S & P believes that China tourism groups' gross margins may face some pressure in a few years' time as competitors increase the number of stores.

S & P forecasts that the debt-to-EBITDA ratio of China tourism groups will remain at 2.42.9 times in 2020 and will fall to 2.02.4 times in 2021. S & P expects the company to generate 35-4 billion yuan in operating cash flow and 20-2.5 billion yuan in free-operating cash flow in 2020. The tax-free business generated 4.3 billion yuan in operating cash flow in the first half of 2020, up from 2.7 billion yuan in the same period last year, due to lower rents. S & P expects China Tourism groups to significantly reduce capital expenditure this year, focusing only on the construction of their Hainan operations.

S & P continues to regard CITS Hong Kong as a core subsidiary of China Tourism Group because of its exclusive policy function in visa processing for China Tourism Group. China Travel Service Hong Kong Group is also wholly owned by China Tourism Group. While s & p expects that CTS Hong Kong will bring lower revenues and gross profits to the group as the china tourism group expands, s & p expects it to account for about 70 per cent of its assets and is fully integrated with the china tourism group.

S & P expects the Chinese government to step in to support Chinese tourism groups if they run into financial difficulties. S & P's assessment of government support is based on the record of the Chinese government providing emergency liquidity to China Tourism Group and transferring tourism-related assets to the company.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors related to rating and foresight actions:

Health and safety

The "stable" outlook of the China Tourism Group reflects S & P's expectation that its tourism-related activities will recover more quickly from the impact of COVID-19. Therefore, the rating and outlook of the Hong Kong China Travel Service Group will be in line with that of the China Tourism Group.

The "stable" outlook of China Tourism Group also reflects S & P's expectation that the recovery of domestic tourism in China will help accelerate the company's business recovery, as demonstrated by the growth in Hainan and online sales. Rent concessions and the shift to pure commission rent (short-term or longer) will reduce the pressure on EBITDA. S & P forecasts that the group's debt-to-EBITDA ratio will improve to less than three times by 2020, compared with S & P's previous forecast of 4.0-4.5 times.

S & P could downgrade China Travel Group if it sharply increases capital spending or makes large acquisitions to increase its debt-to-EBITDA ratio to more than 3.0 times. The company has been investing in urban shopping and other retail stores in Hainan. Depending on the structure of commission and rent payment, this may reduce the long-term profitability of China Tourism groups.

In unlikely circumstances, if S & P weakens its assessment of any of the following, the company's rating may be downgraded: (1) the status and importance of CITS Hong Kong to China Tourism Group; or (2) the possibility of special support from the government to China Tourism Group. This may happen if the policy role of CTS as the only visa processing and management entity for residents of Hong Kong and Macau in China changes, or if the business is separated from the China Tourism Group.

S & P may upgrade its rating if China Tourism Group can strengthen and improve its market position, size and geographical diversity, while maintaining profit margins expansion and low leverage. If China Tourism Group can strengthen its urban and overseas retail operations while maintaining its dominant position in China's airport duty-free business, the rating may be upgraded. S & P could also upgrade its rating if China Travel Group can continue to reduce its debt-to-EBITDA ratio to less than 2.0 times. This can happen if the company is changed to invest or acquire in a more conservative way.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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标普：确认中国旅游集团和香港中旅集团“A-”长期发行人信用评级，展望上调至“稳定”

S&P: Confirming the “A-” long-term issuer credit ratings of China Travel Group and Hong Kong China Travel Group, and the outlook is raised to “stable”

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