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5G的吸引力会有多大?这三只美股蓄势待发

How attractive will 5G be? These three US stocks are ready to go

智通财经 ·  Sep 10, 2020 11:38

Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics

Author: Zeng Yingying

Despite repeated delays in the launch of Apple Inc's iPhone 12, analysts generally expect a surge in interest in 5G technology once the 5G phone is released. Due to the advent of 5G, the data connection speed currently maintained at 12-36Mbps may increase to 300Mbps, which may eventually promote the development of some technologies on smartphones.

As many unknown factors are involved, it is difficult to predict the possible innovative technologies in the future. However, the transition to 5G has spawned the demand for new equipment and the prospect of the upcoming upgrade cycle. Perhaps these three companies will benefit from the global transition to new technologies.

Broadcom Ltd (AVGO): expected profit increases as well as dividend

Broadcom Ltd is a global semiconductor company established through acquisitions. The chip giant, once known as Avago, adopted its current name after acquiring Broadcom Ltd in 2016.

The acquisition project brings the software business to the company. As of the third quarter of 2020, software revenue accounted for 28% of total revenue and was the main source of its performance growth. In addition, its mature chip business also helps to achieve 5G functions in smartphones.

Both businesses underpin the company's strong financial position. Admittedly, the main reason for the decline in net profit in the most recent quarter was the rise in amortization costs. Still, its free cash flow of more than $3 billion far exceeds the level of about $2.3 billion a year earlier.

The stock rose more than 1 per cent in after-hours trading after the company announced its Q3 results for fiscal 2021. The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio is only about 15 times. With earnings growth stagnant this year, analysts expect profit growth to be slightly less than 13 per cent for the next fiscal year.

It is worth noting that Broadcom Ltd pays a dividend of $13 per share and a yield of nearly 3.6%, more than double the S & P 500 average of about 1.75%. This makes Broadcom Ltd one of the more attractive 5G shares.

Ciena Technology (CIEN): will provide "differentiated 5G Services"

Ciena Technology, once the darling of the Internet boom, is using its cable experience to promote the development of 5G services.

After the company reported results for the third quarter of fiscal 2020, its shares fell more than 24% on the day. Management said the slow revenue growth was due to a decline in overall demand caused by a health pandemic, with total revenue up only about 1.7 per cent year-on-year.

Management points out that demand for bandwidth has increased by about 25% to 30%. In addition, the company recently launched new 5G products aimed at providing intelligent automation, cash routing platforms and professional services to promote its "differentiated 5G services". This means that any impact related to health events may be temporary, as companies will have to buy equipment to keep up with increased market demand.

Due to the plunge in the company's share price, its current forward price-to-earnings ratio is just over 14 times, slightly lower than the five-year average forward price-earnings ratio. For investors, this may be a buying opportunity. Analysts expect earnings growth to fall to low single digits next year as Ciena technology grapples with the challenges posed by health events. However, once consumers really accept 5G technology, the company is likely to return to the previous level of performance growth.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM): may profit from the growth of 5G market

At present, it seems that some of the most significant advances in 5G technology are probably due to Qualcomm Inc, because it has a patented chipset, and people who want to use 5G have to buy products that use Qualcomm Inc chips.

Earlier, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sued Qualcomm Inc over monopoly issues. Qualcomm Inc won an antitrust lawsuit on Aug. 11, local time, with the latest ruling overturning a 2019 judge's ruling that Qualcomm Inc must renegotiate hundreds of millions of dollars in patent licensing agreements with smartphone operators.

Until other companies invent comparable competitive products, Qualcomm Inc is likely to still control the chip market. In addition, research and market analysts expect the global 5G chipset market to have an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of close to 88 per cent by 2025.

Last quarter's data showed that there was no sign of a surge in profits for the time being. Under non-GAAP, revenue growth is flat and profit growth is only about 8 per cent.

However, analysts expect profit growth of more than 63 per cent after the popularity of 5G devices next year. Considering the estimated CAGR, Qualcomm Inc seems to be able to maintain this level in the next few years. Its forward price-earnings ratio is 19 times.

Although it is possible for Apple Inc or other companies to invent comparable chipsets, Qualcomm Inc's performance growth is likely to slow by then. However, as Qualcomm Inc still dominates the chip industry, his stock is expected to benefit in the next few years.

Edit / isaac

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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