Li Daxiao is the most controversial financial figure in the A-share market.

As the chief economist of British University Securities, he successively put forward the "school beauty theory", "golden bottom" and "diamond bottom" in 2012, and the "5178 earth top" and "2850 baby bottom" (blue chip bottom) in 2015, which aroused a lot of controversy at that time. and now it seems to be correct.

He has kept a low profile this year.

On the occasion of the A-share adjustment, we connected Li Daxiao and had an in-depth conversation with him. In this conversation, Li Daxiao still used golden sentences frequently. What did he say? It's all below.

Wonderful ideas:

After the A-share broke through 3000 points, those who stepped into the air were desperate to chase it. In the process of rising from 3000 to 3400, those who buy too much are prone to risk.

Why do I slit my throat and shout "bottom, bottom" below 3000? Because many people will not buy stocks at the bottom, he must buy stocks at 3400. Therefore, if you buy stocks at 3400 o'clock, you have to pay tuition fees if you go too high.

At that time, no one agreed with Li Daxiao's point of view. I was ridiculed, ridiculed, reviled, threatened, intimidated and criticized, and up to now, I am still criticized. Because no one will admit his mistake, even though he overtakes him.

Statistics show that most people are wrong and a very small number of people make money. Why? Because most of the ideas are wrong, you have to pick out a very small number of views in the market.

The mainstream view must be wrong, if the mainstream view is right, then most of the market is making money. Whose money is that earned? You need to figure this out.

Hong Kong stocks are now a depression in the global market. At present, the overall collapse of Hong Kong stocks means that it is better to buy stocks in Hong Kong stocks than to start your own company or build your own factory.

Now I can buy mature companies at a low net asset price. If those companies sell them to you at a price below their net worth after 10 or 20 years of struggle, does it mean that they have been working for you for 20 years for nothing?

The market depends on common misunderstandings to make money. Why have consumer stocks fallen recently? That's because in the past investors were taught by the market that only consumption could rise. After being educated by the market, it must be wrong to buy high-consumption stocks now, because it is too expensive, so it is easy to pay tuition fees.

I think cyclical stocks such as bank real estate, non-bank finance, infrastructure and so on will have certain opportunities for defense and performance. Cyclical stocks have relatively low valuations and are attractive to some extent.

Although recently, banks have been guided to make a reasonable profit of 1.5 trillion yuan, which seems to be disadvantageous to banks. But we should also see that bank stocks are now 0.5 times PB, and some consumer stocks are 10 times PB,0.5 times PB can rise to 0.6 times is also a big increase.

The following is the full text of the dialogue:

If you overestimate your consumption now, it's easy to pay your tuition.

Q: what do you think of the recent collapse in food and beverages?

Li Daxiao:I think this is the process of profit-taking, because it rose more in the early stage. Prev has a relative premium. So today, A shares are not called plummeting, but rising and falling.

Q: Haitian has continued to decline since last week. How do you think food and beverage will go in the future?

Li Daxiao:Some food and beverage stocks have risen more than ten times, do not be afraid to fall ten points, which is not a big loss for people in the low position. If you get it in a high position, you must be prepared.

Q: which plates do you think will be better next?

Li Daxiao:Blue chips would be better.

I think cyclical stocks such as bank real estate, non-bank finance and insurance, infrastructure and so on will have certain opportunities for defense and performance. Cyclical stocks have relatively low valuations and are attractive to some extent.

The upward shift of the valuation center of these plates is driven by three points:

First, the interest rate in the whole market is low and the valuation of stocks will go up.

Second, the requirements of long-term capital allocation match the domestic blue chips.

In addition, the transfer of residents' wealth is also a major trend, in which the logic is quite strong.

Can't you buy the "three fools"? This is a misunderstanding.

Q: at presentThe above requiresBankTo benefit the real economy, in fact, it is profitable.In recent yearsIt can't be released.NoPerformance support, stock priceHow to rise？

Li Daxiao:This is a common misunderstanding.

The market depends on common misunderstandings to make money. Why have consumer stocks fallen recently? That's because in the past investors were taught by the market that only consumption could rise. After being educated by the market, it must be wrong to buy and spend now, because it is too expensive, so you will have to pay tuition fees.

Blue chips are obviously undervalued, and this undervaluation creates market opportunities. Because now everyone does not agree with this view, they all think that banks do not have the logic and basis to rise.

Although the financial system has recently been guided to make a reasonable profit of 1.5 trillion yuan, it seems disadvantageous to the banks. But we should also see that bank stocks are now 0.5 times PB, and some consumer stocks are 10 times PB,0.5 times PB can rise to 0.6 times is also a big increase.

问：Where is the logic of insurance stocks?

Li Daxiao:The logic of insurance is the same. Although the performance of insurance stocks declined in the first half of the year, the logic of their rise has not changed.

At present, the depth of insurance in China is still very shallow, the space for insurance in China will be very broad in the future, and the valuation level of insurance is also very low.

People do not call banks, insurance and real estate "three fools". They think that whoever buys them is stupid. This is a market misunderstanding.

问：What do you think「Three fools」When will the opportunity be obvious?地Show it.？

Li Daxiao:The market will always correct it. The opportunities for banking, insurance and real estate are obvious because they are too cheap.

So when will the market revise the views of ordinary people? After it soars, many people will chase it, just like chasing the consumer leader now. After a valuation of 10 or 20 times, someone will naturally chase it.

After the market is educated, it will be found that the "three fools" may not be unable to make money.

On the consumer side, we are only bullish on stocks with reasonable valuations. At present, the consumption leader has risen too much in the short term.

Q: youWhich industries do you think will support the promotion of GDP in China in the next stage?

Li Daxiao:In the future, I think there are two directions.

First, the development of China's stock market depends on the gradual increase of China's contribution to the global economy, which is a major direction in the future.

At present, China's contribution to global economic growth is 33%, and I think this proportion will further increase in the future.

Second, in the process of structural transformation in China, advanced productive forces gradually replace the old ones. Enterprises with rapid productivity gains to adapt to economic transformation will also contribute more profits.

Both directions are parallel.

问：It is said that China's GDP有60%-70%It's all driven by consumption.You're right.Consumption plateSubsequentInvestment opportunityWhat do you think?

Li Daxiao:China has a huge domestic demand market, and I think this market will become bigger and bigger in the global proportion. Coupled with our emphasis on "internal circulation" now, the proportion of internal circulation will become larger and larger in the future.

In this, I think there are certain opportunities for industries related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and their share of leading enterprises will become larger and larger. For example, the share of leading enterprises in banking, insurance, real estate and infrastructure will become larger and larger, and their market capitalization will gradually rise.

In addition, the prosperity of the leaders of the advanced manufacturing industry is gradually increasing, so in the market, I think some leading enterprises will have the opportunity.

3400Point talentBuy stocks，sureYou have to pay tuition.

Q: youI think nowAIs there still a bull market for stocks?

Li Daxiao:I think the A-share bull market still exists.

The bull market of A shares, which started at 2440 on January 4, 2019, is still not over.

It's just that when it reaches 3458, he will have a short-term process of digesting the valuation. Because A shares rose too high and too fast in July, they rose 400 points at once, which is obviously too fast.

It took 13 years for our A-share to break through 3000 points. After July, it took about 10 days to increase by 400 points, which is too fast.

The next step is to slowly consolidate the process after the breakthrough of 3000 points.

问：Why do you think it's rising so fast?

Li Daxiao:At that time, many people did not believe that A shares would break through 3000 points, because 3000 points was an insurmountable peak at that time.

After the A-share broke through 3000 points, those who set foot in the sky were desperate to chase it, which is such a process. The people who bought your stock in the process of chasing 400 points must be wrong.

Why do I slit my throat and shout "bottom, bottom" below 3000? Because many people will not buy stocks at the bottom, he must have bought stocks at 3400. Therefore, it is easy to pay tuition fees to buy expensive stocks only at 3400 o'clock.

At that time, no one agreed with Li Daxiao's point of view. I was ridiculed, ridiculed, reviled, threatened, threatened and criticized. Up to now, I am still criticized because no one will admit his mistake, even though he has overtaken him.

You know, statistics show that most people are wrong and a very small number of people make money. Why? Because the views are all wrong, you have to pick out a very small number of views in this market.

The mainstream view must be wrong, because if the mainstream view is right, most of the market is making money. Then whose money do you earn? you have to figure out this question.

问：The fourth quarter is coming.有Which risks do you need to remind investors?？

Li Daxiao:That is, the risk of the overvalued sector mentioned earlier. Where is this overvalued plate? Everyone should think about this problem carefully.

Buying Hong Kong stocks is more profitable than opening a company or a factory.

Q: youHow to look at the investment value of Hong Kong stocks？

Li Daxiao:Hong Kong stocks are currently the depression of the global market, basically the first depression.

At present, the Hong Kong stock market as a whole is broken, which means that it is better to buy shares in Hong Kong stocks than to start your own company or build a factory, because its PB is less than 1.

Why did I say that? Because now I can buy mature companies with low net worth. After 10 or 20 years of struggle, those companies still sell them to you at a price below their net worth, doesn't it mean that they have worked for nothing for 20 years?

Q: companies in Hong Kong stocks are very divided. what kind of companies do you suggest buying Hong Kong stocks?

Li Daxiao:The "three foolishness" mentioned just now is very good.

Hong Kong stocks "three silly" currently have a PB of 0. 3-0. 5 times. Some of these companies have been listed for 20 years and sold to you at half their net worth, which is equivalent to 40 years of bargain.

Generally speaking, I am optimistic about the "three fools" in the cycle sector, especially the companies listed in Hong Kong stocks, because they are cheap enough.

Q: what do you think of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong or about to "return"?

Li Daxiao:These stocks are good, some of the future development prospects are very good, but we should pay attention to hold from the low level. For example, if you buy BABA and Tencent in a low position, there will be no problem.

If you catch up, you will have to put up with the risk of being trapped in the short term, but it should not be a big problem in the long run. If it doesn't do well in the future, that's another matter.