”Wanda moviesI think the movie's box office is expected to exceed 20 billion dollars in the second half of the year.”
On July 20, the resumption of work on the movie theater line was long overdue. The entire industry was affected by the epidemic and went through a bleak first half year. According to industry practice, the Spring Festival festival is the peak season for people to stock up ammunition for the whole year. Unfortunately, the outbreak of the epidemic has disrupted the positions of workers. The impact on Wanda Movie (002739.SZ), which is a movie star in theaters, was also not too small.
In the first half of the year, Wanda Film's revenue and profit both declined sharply. Among them, revenue of 1,972 million dollars fell 74%, and net profit was lost by nearly 1.6 billion yuan. The famous IP “Chinatown Detective 3,” which was originally intended to be a major part of the Spring Festival festival, had already been promoted in various promotions before the Spring Festival festival, and received a reputation index far higher than the rest of the series, yet it had a strong reputation index that was far ahead of the rest of the series, yet it had a lot of trouble to do. Also affected was the much-anticipated sequel to the domestic anime “Nana”, “Jiang Ziya.”
Now, with the resumption of work in theaters, the capital market is also looking forward to the recovery of the film and television industry. Currently, “Babai” is a hit, with a box office of 2.1 billion in 14 days of release, which has further ignited the enthusiasm of the industry. So what are the prospects for cinema recovery?
According to the company intelligence expert “Financial Graffiti”, the hit screening of “Babai” has greatly boosted the confidence of all producers. “Mulan” and “Creed,” which will be screened in September, and “Jiang Ziya,” “My Hometown and Me,” and “Winning the Championship” will all accelerate the recovery of the film industry. Wanda Film's management believes even moreThis year's movie box office is expected to exceed 20 billion in the second half of the year.
The 50% attendance rate stipulated in the current policy seems to have affected the box office, but in reality, the impact is not expectedAs big as the one in the picture。 Judging from the national box office attendance rate, the normal situation is only 10%. For hit movies like “Babai,” the attendance rate is only 33%. Therefore, the 50% attendance rate rule affects at most the prime time from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m., and the rest of the time there is little impact. With the gradual opening up of policies,It is expected that before the eleventh level, the operation of food and other products sold in theaters will also be liberalized.
The recovery of the cinema line is just right, but after experiencing a disastrous business period in the first half of the year, some changes are also taking place within the industry. Small and medium-sized cinema owners are under financial pressure and are withdrawing from this market, while powerful leading enterprises are still expanding. We will see a further increase in industry concentration.
According to “Financial Graffiti,” by the end of August, only about 80% of the country's theaters had resumed work, and some theaters have resumed work one after another, but the industry believes they have experienced this round of the epidemic.About 10%-15% of the small and medium theaters will fall before dawn, while the exit box office market will be about 5% of the national box office market.
There are those who retreat bravely from the rapids, while others go against the tide. There are still a few leaders with financial support that can buck the trend and expand. One of them is the cinema Gowanda movie, which has a market share of 14.7%.The company will continue to add 70-80 cinemas this year, including 50WandaCinemas in the plaza, and more than 20 theaters other than Wanda Plaza。 The bottom of the industry is suffering from blood transfusions. What is behind this is the belief that the Chinese film market still has room to double. Compared with the number of movies watched more than 3.5 times per capita in developed countries, this figure in China was only 1.24 last year. Well, market share that bucked the trend and expanded meant greater revenue elasticity after the industry recovered.
The industry is recovering, and we can see the elasticity of Wanda Film on the revenue side, so can the profit side stop losing money? The few things Wanda Film did during the pandemic can give investors confidence to stop losing money. First, through negotiations on the rent side, fixed rent will be reduced by 40% year on year, and after the pandemic, some companies have a three-month recovery period to enjoy rent reduction in half. In the long run, rent negotiations have also made favorable progress, and rent cuts have been obtained for some properties. Looking at the advertising side, the company has made some innovations this year. Nearly 80% of theaters have changed their previous procurement method of fixed bidding to pay based on the number of movie viewers, further sharing costs and benefits upstream.
“Babai” kicked off the first round of recovery in the film and television industry in the post-pandemic era. Then, there are 11 gold slots. Workers in the film and television industry are all rubbing their hands. Under the visible recovery, Wanda Film will also climb out of the valley. At least in the first half of next year, if there is no recurrence of the epidemic, such a thriving recovery scene can continue. According to “Financial Graffiti,”The company's famous IP “Chinatown Detective 3” may be screened during the Spring Festival next year. At that time, the box office will be compounded by the recovery of the cinema, and the flexibility of performance may be unleashed even more.