Source: Securities News Network
Author: Chen Xiachang
On Thursday, local time, the three major US stock indexes plummeted, with the NASDAQ down more than 5% at one point. By the close, the Dow was down 807.77 points, or 2.78%, at 28292.73; the NASDAQ was at 11458.10, down 598.34 points, or 4.96%; and the S & P 500 was at 3455.06, down 125.78 points, or 3.51%.
The move comes just a day after the Dow broke through 29000 for the first time since February, less than its all-time high. Both the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record highs, and the Nasdaq stood above 12000 for the first time in history.
The panic index soared 26%.
In terms of individual stocks, technology stocks, which have been leading the rise in the stock market, suffered a sharp correction. Apple Inc is down 8.01%, Microsoft Corp is down 6.19%, Amazon.Com Inc is down 4.63%, and Tesla, Inc. is down 4.2%. Tesla, Inc. is down 9.02%.
Prior to this, Tesla, Inc. has closed down for three consecutive days, a decline of more than 20%, and a market capitalization loss of nearly US $100 billion. Recently, Scottish investor Baillie Gifford, Tesla, Inc. 's largest institutional shareholder, confirmed that Tesla, Inc. 's stake fell to 4.25 per cent at the end of August, compared with 6.32 per cent in June.
(Tesla, Inc. fell for three days in a row)
(Apple Inc's share price has plummeted)
On the news, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment benefits under state unemployment benefits programs were 881000 in the week ended Aug. 29, the lowest since mid-March and 130000 lower than last week. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the previous week was revised down by 5000 to 1.011 million. Economists had expected the figure to be 940000.
In the past two weeks, the data has rebounded to more than 1 million after falling below 1 million. Starting this week, the Labor Department changed the way it adjusts the number of first-time jobless claims to reflect seasonal fluctuations in employment. As a result, the media had predicted that the number of new jobless claims last week could fall by as much as 200000.
Another data shows that the US trade deficit in July was 63.6 billion US dollars, with an estimated deficit of 58 billion US dollars, compared with a previous deficit of 50.7 billion US dollars. Analysts believe that the US trade deficit widened again in July after falling in June, and the trade deficit surged to its highest level in 12 years in July, which means that the road to economic recovery will be bumpy. The volume of trade is above its low during the May outbreak, but remains depressed after the initial rise in the economic restart.
In other markets, European stocks closed lower, with Germany's DAX index down 1.55% at 13038.61, France's CAC40 index down 0.7% at 4996.74 and the UK's FTSE 100 down 1.61% at 5845.47.
In precious metals, gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $6.90, or nearly 0.4%, to close at $1937.80 an ounce. December silver futures fell 52 cents, or 1.9%, to close at $26.875 an ounce.
In terms of crude oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents, or 0.3%, to close at $41.37 a barrel. The futures fell to $40.22 on Thursday morning.
Trump cast off: false news suppresses opinion polls and causes the market to fall
In response to the stock market slump, US President Donald Trump commented on social media: "have you noticed that the stock market falls whenever opinion polls suppressed by fake news, such as Fox, appear." We're gonna win! "
(Trump social media screenshot)
A Fox News poll showed Biden in the lead, especially in these swing and red states. The poll covers a large number of registered voters who are likely to vote. Biden raised a record $364 million for the August campaign. Once upon a time, campaign fundraising was an important indicator of final victory and election. But the lessons of 2016 are vivid.
There are huge differences in economic policies between Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Trump, especially when it comes to taxing big companies and the rich. If Biden is elected in the November election, the market fears a sharp correction in the stock market.
Technological adjustment or the beginning of the stock market crash? Analysts are divided.
Analysts are divided as to whether Thursday's plunge in U. S. stocks is the beginning of a new round of stock market crash or just a technical adjustment.
"We don't expect US stocks to collapse again now," said Frank Cappelleri, executive director of Instinet. As the S & P 500 has risen for more than 10 days in a row and has just reaped its biggest gain in two months, it must have a period of correction to digest.
"for technology stocks, these stocks have fallen sharply, but this is also after the recent rally," said Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge. For some time, the performance of technology stocks has been out of touch with their fundamentals, and kinetic energy has made it possible for them to rise or fall. "
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said: "there are also technical reasons for Thursday's plunge: investors moved money out of the technology sector because of deteriorating international relations, because technology companies are likely to be hit hardest by potential import tax increases. But with the continued rotation of the sector and the transfer of money to cyclical stocks, large technology stocks will eventually fall victim to the deterioration of international relations, and the Nasdaq will be hit hardest. "
而Ron William, a market strategist at RW, a consulting firm, takes the most pessimistic view. He believes asset prices may be on the brink of a sharp collapse, the so-called "Minsky moment", and US stocks could return to their March lows.
The Minsky moment, named after the economist Hyman Minsky, refers to the sudden collapse of the market after an unsustainable bull market, which may have been driven by the "easy credit" environment created by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.
William believes that US stocks have continued to rise in recent months as investors bet that governments and central banks will continue to introduce stimulus measures and that the outlook for a coronavirus vaccine seems bright.
William lists a number of factors that could lead to a collapse in U. S. stocks, the first of which is that the stock market rally driven by tech giants is unsustainable. Although the United States is suffering from the coronavirus epidemic and ethnic civil strife, the FAANG Big five have been on the rise. FAANG refers to the five giants of technology stocks such as Facebook Inc, Apple Inc, Amazon.Com Inc, Netflix and Alphabet Inc-CL C's parent company, Alphabet. But with the exception of technology stocks, the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which has many "zombie companies", is not good on an average weighted basis.
In addition, the liquidity and volatility of the US stock market are also showing signs of imminent change. "liquidity in exchange traded funds (ETF), which tracks the S & P 500, has hit an all-time low, while the CBOE volatility index (VIX), a measure of market panic, has soared unusually, indicating the potential risk of a collapse," William said. "
William said: "Minsky moment could cause US stocks to plunge 20% to 30%, or more, causing the stock market to retest March lows, thus turning the current V-shaped recovery into a W-shaped recovery. He said that considering the abnormally high valuations of US stocks, the poor historical performance of the stock market from the end of August to early September and the impending US election, US stocks may be looking for a pullback. He added that this could be healthy in the long run and that it would bring "years of repair until the long-term bull market returns".
The Nasdaq has traded above its 50-day moving average for more than 100 days in a row, falling sharply whenever it is above its 50-day moving average for about 100 days in a row, and it fell more than 5% in intraday trading on Thursday, which could be the start of a bigger correction.
Edit / Phoebe