A-share consumer plate, recently with a Galaxy Securities "short" research report, has been pushed to the forefront of the wind and waves.

When everyone is immersed in the thought of "whether the Haitian flavor industry is expensive in 500 billion", the market value of the Haitian flavor industry once exceeded 650 billion in intraday trading today, although it has experienced a midday plunge, its market value is also 599.5 billion yuan. In addition, by the close, the A-share liquor plate almost all went against the trend, Jinhui Liquor rose by the limit, and Yanghe shares rose more than 5%.

Standing at the moment, how to treat the valuation of A-share consumer stocks? Can you still get in the car? what's the risk? How does the "boss" of investment view the fact that consumption is shorted by sellers?

In response to the above problems, we contacted Lin Yuan, known as the "god of private stock", and asked him to express his latest views on the consumer sector.

Data show that in 1989, Lin Yuan entered the stock market with 8000 yuan. in his early years, he fought in spirits, but now he is firmly optimistic about medicine. With the outbreak of its heavy pharmaceutical stocks this year, the private equity investment in Lin Yuan, which is at the helm of Lin Yuan, has also entered.Tens of billions of private placementOn the list.

Since its establishment in February 2007, the rate of return of Lin Yuan Investment has been 1019.26%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has increased by 89.27% over the same period.

Lin Yuan's wonderful ideas:

I think there is a high probability that the recent "shorting" consumption paper is wrong. If you don't believe it, you see, that is what the layman said, it is very fast for stocks to rise all at once, and to play with stocks is to make money in the trend.

The consumer sector is indeed in a bull market. People who say that consumption is not good, he does not know how to speculate in the stock market, and the probability of nonsense is very high. You see, the more shorting consumption is now, the higher it will be, isn't it?

From the point of view of the trend, consumption is not a matter of one or two days. Ten or eight years is entirely possible. The big consumer sector will be bullish for a long time. Anyway, there is nothing to lose by buying consumer stocks now.

At present, my attitude towards consumer stocks is to hold firmly. In addition to liquor, I hold all the mainstream consumer sectors.

There are many investment opportunities for optional consumption, and the target of choice varies according to different market conditions. For example, medicine, medical services.

Cheap and expensive (valuation) is of course very important for stocks. But you must know that the tendency of mainstream funds and their stock selection criteria are more important than the question of whether they are cheap or expensive.

To make investment, the way of thinking must be in line with international standards. China's structure dominated by retail investment for decades cannot be changed, but the pricing power must be clearly seen, so there is no need to have a problem with money.

I expect that the A-share market will grow as mature as the US market in 2-3 years, and it will take 8 months. Now this trend has been formed, and it will accelerate. Otherwise, no one would say that the consumer sector is highly valued. This matter is completely in line with the international market.

People who say that consumption valuations are high are just words on paper, and he doesn't understand it at all.

A-shares are not risky now. People who can't make money are going in the wrong direction. In the early days of the bull market, consumption by large market capitalization was a top priority.

The following is the full text of the dialogue:

People who say that consumption is not good.，他I don't know how to speculate in stocks.

问：In the near futureAn analyst of a securities firmWhat do you think of bluntly saying that the valuation of the consumer sector has reached a record high, which means a decline in the rate of return on investment?

Lin Yuan:He doesn't have the final say. The market has the final say. Such research papers are all wild guesses. What he said could also happen unless he guessed right.

The consumer sector is now a bull market, which can be seen from the trend. What is a bull market? Is to keep making new highs.

This is true not only in the consumer sector, but also in companies with large market capitalization. Judging from the situation of global capital markets in recent decades, few small stocks and small market capitalization companies will be paid attention to at this time. There are mainly changes in market capitalization and certainty.

People who say that consumption is not good, he does not know how to speculate in the stock market, and the probability of nonsense is very high. You see, the more you sing, the more you spend, the more it goes up, right?

I'm not sure about this kind of thing, and I dare not say it nonsense. But what we see is that this sector is indeed in a bull market.

问：What do you thinkConsumption of bulls.Trend，How long will it last?

Lin Yuan:It's hard to say. I don't know how long it will last.

But from the point of view of the trend, this is not a matter of a day or two.

Q: how long was that?

Lin Yuan:Ten or eight years is entirely possible. The big consumer sector will have a long-term bull market.

International consumer stocks have been in a bull market for decades, and this is the law of the global capital market. Anyway, you can't lose money by buying consumer stocks.

I'm not going to guess this, but past history has given the answer.

To buy consumer stocks, choose those with rigid demand.

Q: consumption is now stronger.Is it consistent with the domestic macro environment?，Like liquidity.Is it relevant? It's everyone's.The money has no place to go.买Consumption吗？

Lin Yuan:No. Consumption is supposed to be a top priority in global capital markets. This is the characteristic of the early days of the bull market.

Because the weight of consumption is relatively large, in the early days of the bull market can drive everyone to participate in investment, everyone can make money, the stock market can go bull.

Therefore, the recent strengthening of consumption is not the performance of a specific period, its strength is the characteristic of the early days of the bull market.

Q: can it be understood asYour opinion.And a brokerage.Research and newspaperThe point is thatOn the contrary？BecauseThey stress that it is a bull market. "The second half」Oh, but you've beenThink of it as "The first half」？

Lin Yuan:I'm not the opposite of him either. Anyway, I think there's a good chance that what he said is wrong.

If you don't believe it, you see, that is what the layman said, it is very fast for stocks to rise all at once, and to play with stocks is to make money in the trend.

问：Consumption is a very large sector, you meanIsThe whole big consumptionOr is it justYou mean spirits?

Lin Yuan:It refers to big consumption. What we mean by consumption is consumption with rigid demand. Food, beverage, medicine and so on have shelf life and are easy to judge.

But cars also belong to consumption, so why not vote for it? Because whether the customer buys a car or not, there is a lot of randomness. What we mean by rigid consumption is that you can know his location.

Of course, we know the level of valuation, but sometimes it deviates from the trend.

At present, consumer stocks, especially the leading consumer stocks, are in a bull market. Are you convinced or not? If you can reach a new high, isn't that called a bull market? Otherwise, we won't be able to reach a new high.

问：What do you thinkFollow-up of the consumer sectorThere will beFundamentalsDo you support it?

Lin Yuan:The fundamentals will be normal, and the fundamentals of the consumer sector in all industry sectors are the best.

Some people say that consumption PE is high, but other sectors PE is higher.

Q: you watch this.ConsumptionWhich ones are inside?Subdivide the field？

Lin Yuan:I'm not optimistic. Now that people say it's expensive, I won't buy it, so I keep it. At present, my attitude towards consumer stocks is to hold firmly. In addition to liquor, I hold all the mainstream consumer sectors.

问：If it takes five years、From a ten-year perspective, do you think the investment value of liquorWhat?？

Lin Yuan:My judgment is that it will take ten years to buy a lot of money and pay back in fifteen years. (not specifically referring to spirits)

Be on guard against the risk of excessive short-term cumulative increase

问：In addition to the leading liquor, non-leading liquor你Can you read it?

Lin Yuan:No, I haven't seen spirits for 15 years.

There are many investment opportunities for optional consumption, and the target of choice varies according to different market conditions. For example, medicine, medical services.

Q: at presentShockUnder the market price，What should I buy?Optional consumption？

Lin Yuan:I know you asked me about this, and I don't want to talk about it. I told you everything. What else am I going to eat?

In addition, I dare not talk nonsense, I am not a researcher, I am a stock speculator.

问：Where is the next risk point in the consumer sector?

Lin Yuan:The short-term cumulative increase is too big for us to see other risks.

If consumption is affected when macro factors change, other sectors are more affected.

It is expected that A shares can "catch up" with US stocks in 8 months at the earliest.

问：Where is there in consumption?些You won't touch the ticket.？

Lin Yuan:I don't touch any small companies with a market capitalization of less than 7 billion yuan (in billions of US dollars).

1 billion US dollars is a target. Many institutional investors around the world stipulate that companies under 1 billion US dollars are not allowed to invest. This is a common international standard, so we also regard it as a basic common sense.

Cheap and expensive (valuation) is of course very important for stocks. But you must know that the tendency of mainstream funds and their stock selection criteria are more important than the question of whether they are cheap or expensive.

From the perspective of overseas markets, you will lose money if you buy a cheap company.

Do not buy companies that are not recommended by global investment rules, or there is a high probability of bad luck.

Q: you're talking aboutInternationalInvestmentStandard, butCan it play a role in the investment in A-share market?？

Lin Yuan:To make investment, the way of thinking must be in line with international standards.

China's structure dominated by retail investment for decades cannot be changed, but the pricing power must be clearly seen, so there is no need to have a problem with money.

Q: youAnticipationA-share marketHow long will it take to be as mature as the United States?

Lin Yuan:I judge that it is 2-3 years, and now this trend has been formed and will accelerate.

Otherwise, no one would say that the consumer sector is overvalued. This matter is completely in line with the international market.

People who say that consumption valuations are high are just words on paper, and he doesn't understand it at all.

问：Will two or three years be too short?？

Lin Yuan:I don't rule out eight months.

Now the signs have become more and more obvious, this is not what I said, the market has told you.

If you look at the leaders of various industries, which one does not rise? Which stock is not hitting a new high? Do I have to say that? I don't say he's true. People should learn to observe.

问：但AThe maturity of the stock market still needs a system.And other aspects in common.Push forwardHow can it be so fast?？

Lin Yuan:The actual situation may be different. For example, if public or private funds invest, the market will also "educate" institutions, and you will not be able to make money without being in line with international standards. These things complement each other.

Q: us stocksThe top five tech stock markets are worthThe S & P 500 index accounts for more than 2%.0%How can there be so many large market capitalization companies in A shares?

Lin Yuan:That can only push up the stock price. When share prices are high, these leading companies account for a large proportion of the index.

Only one or two stocks in mature stock markets will continue to strengthen.

When A shares can reach the maturity of the American market, there will be the characteristics of "constant strength", and the differentiation will become more and more serious.

We are also speaking purely from experience through decades of experience.

Q: when A股If you can be as mature as the US stock market, thenHow much is the stock index?

Lin Yuan:It's hard to say. Anyway, we think it's more or less possible. In fact, the A-share market is almost the same as the US market, and the consistency has exceeded 80%.

Consumption with large market capitalization is the top priority at the beginning of the bull market.

问：In the case of such a loud call for "internal circulation", if you do not buy consumption, what do you think you can buy?

Lin Yuan:Don't buy anything except consumer companies with rigid demand.

As for cyclical stocks such as infrastructure, others should buy them. I don't care about these things.

问：The fourth quarter is coming soon, for the A-share market, what risks do you think need to be vigilant?

Lin Yuan:A-shares are not risky now.

People who can't make money are going in the wrong direction. In the early days of the bull market, consumption by large market capitalization was a top priority.

Q: youWhat do you think of the opportunities for Hong Kong stocks? such asSome catering faucets?

Lin Yuan:I think the valuation is too high.

Q: did you buy US stocks?

Lin Yuan:I have held US stocks for decades and began to invest in US stocks in 1994. It is mainly a leading company that holds large consumption of US stocks, pharmaceutical biology and so on.

The rate of return is about the same as that earned in A-shares, but the specific rate of return is not calculated, mainly personal money, not company products.

问：Fund managers love to expand their ability circle. How do you expand your ability circle?

Lin Yuan:I don't have the ability to circle, and I don't like to deal with others. I just mind my own business.

问：It's right.你Books that have a lot of influence?

Lin Yuan:No, just basic financial knowledge.

Q: recently, "Civilization, Modernization, value Investment and China", "Schwarzman: my experiences and lessons" and other books are very popular in the circle. Have you read them?

Lin Yuan:I don't look. I don't see what's going on.

Q: you investCan you read the cycle?

Lin Yuan:I can read this. Industry, macro, will go to see.

问：Some people say that investment is the realization of cognition.你What do you think?？

Lin Yuan:I can't even understand what this sentence means. I'm not a scholar, and I don't know about these things.

But in my opinion, investment is timing. Investment is the realization of cognition, there is a certain truth, in fact, we should have an accurate grasp of the future. Cognition should be supported by theory.