This article is edited from Guosheng Securities: "20Q1 Quarterly report Review: excellent performance under the epidemic, positive changes on the supply side", Guoxin Securities "Meituan second Quarterly report Prospect: see the Sun, performance rebounds strongly"
Abstract: Meituan is expected to release Q2 financial results on Friday. Despite the impact of the epidemic, Meituan's overall business still performed well, with an adjusted profit of-220 million yuan and-1.05 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly driven by the excellent performance of takeout and arrival. The Q2 market expects Meituan's business to recover strongly from the shadow of the epidemic, with accelerated growth in income and gross profit, which is expected to exceed market expectations.
20Q1 Review: revenue growth fell 13% year-on-year, but better than market expectations
Let's briefly review 20Q1's performance:20Q1 achieved revenue of 16.75 billion yuan,-12.6% year-on-year; operating profit of-1.72 billion yuan, compared with-1.3 billion yuan in the same period last year; loss of-1.58 billion yuan during the period, and-1.43 billion yuan in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA is 40 million yuan,-91.0% compared with the same period last year.The adjusted loss was-220 million yuan, compared with-1.05 billion yuan in the same period last year.Operating cash flow-5.04 billion yuan, compared with-3.28 billion yuan in the same period last year.
From a business point of view, 20Q1 Meituan performed well, mainly due to the excellent performance of takeout and arrivalBut it is also dragged down by new business and other projects. The operating profit of 20Q1 Meituan takeout / inbound wine tour / new business / unallocated items is-0.7, 6.8, 13.6,-960 million yuan respectively, compared with-1.5, 15.9, 25.8, and 160 million yuan in the same period last year.
The big bright spot of Q1 takeout business is the joining of brand merchants.As a result of the epidemic, the majority of brand merchants began to quickly join the takeout supply side. due to the influence of family ordering and the high quality / high premium of brand merchants, the customer unit price of Q1 increased significantly to 52 yuan, of which 1P model reached 51 yuan, 3P model reached an astonishing 53 yuan (10 yuan higher than 2019Q4). Therefore, with the addition of brand merchants, the company's customer unit price will continue to remain high, which is conducive to the recovery of customer orders, but not very strong, to raise the level of GTV, but also help to enhance the company's customer willingness to spend in the future.
II. 20Q2 outlook: accelerated growth of revenue and gross profit, or exceeding market expectations
According to the data of Meituan Research Institute, in early April, the order volume of takeout and the resumption rate of merchants in the living services industry have returned to 80% before the epidemic, and the company's business has recovered strongly from the shadow of the epidemic.Guoxin Securities expects the company's 2020Q2 revenue and gross profit margin to accelerate upward trend, of which operating income is + 9.4% year-on-year, gross margin level increased 5.4pcts, or exceeded market expectations.
Takeout business: significant increase in orders and continuous improvement in profitability
Based on the national takeout recovery rate announced by Meituan Research Institute, the company's orders recovered to an average of 80 per cent from April to May and 95 per cent in June, with a total of about 22.82 million orders in the second quarter, + 9.4 per cent year-on-year.
On August 8, 2020, Meituan completed more than 40 million orders on takeout day. Affected by the epidemic, Meituan takeout accelerated against the trend, from 30 million to 40 million in only one year.
Takeout GTV year-on-year + 13.8%. Affected by the subsidies of brand merchants and other targeted merchants, the Q2 realization rate is expected to decline slightly, but the advertising boost is good (expected to contribute about 1.5%) to boost corporate confidence.
The decrease in the unit price of takeout customers is limited, about 47.8 yuan in the second quarter, while the number of demand-side users and supply-side merchants increased significantly in the second quarter. The company's takeout business revenue and order efficiency will continue to
Arrival business: consumption warms up, go to the store first, wine travel is slow.
According to the data of Meituan Research Institute, the return rate of meals and comprehensive merchants in early April has reached 80.6%, the index is ahead of the recovery of consumption on the demand side, and the overall meal arrival and integrated business basically returned to more than 90% of the level before the epidemic in the second quarter. better than the market expected. The YOY of the company's arrival business Q2 is expected to be about-13.0%, but there is a significant improvement in month-on-month (VSQ1-31.1%), and with the resumption of CPC advertising, Q2 operating revenue is expected to improve significantly.
New business: revenue returns to high growth, operating profits are still under pressure
In the new business, vegetable shopping and flash shopping are all in the early stage of business development. although the business growth is strong, we still need to invest a lot of resources to open up the market space for the new business, and the short-term loss is still expanding. It is estimated that 2020Q2's new business revenue will reach 6 billion, and its operating profit will decline by about 30% month-on-month.
III. Bloomberg expectations of 20Q2 results
Bloomberg's consensus forecast for Meituan's Q2 performance is 23.582 billion yuan in revenue and 40 million yuan in adjusted net profit.
Edit / jasonzeng
