Recently, legendary investor Jim Rogers said that while he firmly believes that the current frenzied printing and borrowing of money by policy makers around the world will eventually lead to disaster, he will not short US stocks and the dollar in the short term, because US stocks are strongly supported by borrowing and printing money, and the dollar will strengthen in the next wave of turmoil.

Of course, if you take a long-term view, Rogers is more bullish on gold and silver, especially silver, which is at historic lows. In addition, he also talked about the topic that he is currently buying the stocks that have been most damaged by the epidemic.

Do not short the US dollar in the short term

Rogers pointed out that in 2008, the world was in great trouble because of "too much debt, but since then, debt has actually skyrocketed more and more." So the next big trouble will be "the scariest thing in my life", and that day is inevitable because "we encounter this problem every few years".

For now, of course, debt is a positive for the stock market. Rogers pointed out that the fact is that "the United States is issuing trillions of treasury bonds and constantly printing dollars," while Japan is "printing money at full speed." Globally, it can be said that central banks and governments are printing money and borrowing as much as possible. The influx of large amounts of excess capital is the key factor contributing to the rise in the market.

In the long run, however, frenzied money printing and borrowing herald future disasters. Unfortunately, "the general election in the United States is six months away, and of course some people want to win re-election." They will not care about tens of thousands of ordinary people and their future generations. All they can see is November and only re-election. Therefore, all kinds of advantages will "continue to appear, and the stock market will be favorable for a period of time."

However, "the debt is breaking through the sky, the printed money covers every corner, and in the end, all of us will pay the price." From this point of view, it is certainly not advisable to short US stocks now, because "do not fight against the Fed", but at the end of the day, people will find that the Fed's ability is also limited.

Rogers is not "against the Fed", at least for the moment. In fact, "I hold a lot of dollars, because when the situation becomes turbulent again, people will look for safe havens, at least for now, the dollar can still play this role in their minds."

Rogers' plan is to sell it all when the dollar is sufficiently overvalued or even to form a bubble, and then put the money into the right option, "maybe gold." Usually, when the dollar appreciates sharply, the price of gold and silver falls. At present, from a historical point of view, the price of silver is much lower than that of gold, so in 2020, the price of silver is by no means overvalued.

Keep an eye on gold, but more on silver

Rogers said he currently holds a lot of gold and silver, and when the time is right, he will further increase his holdings, especially silver. At present, the price of silver is about 50% below its all-time high, which is worth considering. Overall, he predicts that the prices of both precious metals will rise sharply in the next few years, because "there has never been such a heavy debt burden in history from this year to 2021 and 2022".

Last week, there was a big consolidation of gold and silver prices, and for a while some people declared loudly that gold had collapsed. However, Rogers said: "for a long-term bull market, a consolidation of 10% to 15% is nothing to worry about at all. He said that if he encountered the right opportunity, he would also consider buying on the bargain.

Rogers explained that the scale of printing money by the Bank of Japan alone has stunned the world, but it is not just Japan that prints money. Europeans say they will print as much money as they need. You know, this has already happened in the United States. History has taught us that when everyone is frantically printing money, investors are sure to turn to real assets for protection. This is no longer an opinion, but an out-and-out historical fact. "

At the same time, the dollar is undergoing consolidation. The dollar is a currency with serious flaws. The United States has the worst debt problem in the history of the world, and the situation is getting worse day by day. Policy makers in Washington have gone crazy, but aren't others? Everyone is doing the wrong thing. "

Bottom-buying tourism and hotel stocks

Rogers said the outbreak and the ensuing economic shock reminded him of the outbreak of World War I. In Europe in 1914, almost everyone felt that the years were quiet and had no idea that a war sweeping the world was about to begin, and the market was naturally overvalued. At that time, the U. S. stock market has been rising for more than a decade, a record, at the same time exudes the smell of a bubble.

In essence, the same was true of US stocks at the beginning of 2020. "all prices have skyrocketed, and this has been going on for quite some time because of the continued printing of money, and the market has long been in arrears with consolidation, waiting for some kind of catalyst to be in place, and at this time, there is an outbreak-- but even if there is no epidemic, there will be other catalysts sooner or later. "

At present, the rally in US stocks is largely based on novel coronavirus's increasingly clear prospects for therapy and vaccine development, and even many vaccine-related stocks have become recent stars because of this optimistic expectation. If this expectation is correct, the economy can quickly return to normal, and previously crushed sectors such as tourism, hotels and cruise ships may quickly return to normal, so some investors are now planning to bottom out.

Rogers says he has bought some of these stocks, but not because he is optimistic about the vaccine outlook. He explained that he knew nothing about vaccines and when the latter would actually come to the real world, but he knew that these stocks had fallen hard enough. "I know we may not be able to travel by air this month, but in today's world, we have to find a way to get from Tokyo to New York. It's only a matter of time before a large-scale return flight.

By the same token, people will go back to the hotel and start traveling again. I bought shares in a Russian transportation company because the price was very low. Now the whole traffic plate is full of chicken feathers. Entertainment, travel and tourism are also miserable. Therefore, I have bought in these areas, I am buying now, and I will continue to buy in the future. "

Rogers' way of investing

Many people say that Rogers can succeed because he is a countertrend analyst and operator. However, Rogers himself does not admit such a qualitative. He says this may be due to his habit of observing the world, and he is always looking for cheap goals and possible major changes.

"if the prices of some assets are low enough and most people ignore them, then someone will find out and people will say he is a contrarian. Countertrend analysts can always find things that others ignore. Rogers says this is exactly what he wants to do, but he thinks it should not be called countertrend analysis, but "value discovery".

Rogers says that if you want to find value, it is very important to think independently and always be curious. "I am now trying to teach my daughters to think independently, not to be swayed by other people's opinions, to be curious, and the more everyone agrees, the more they try to look at things from other angles, which is very important. This is true for the media, for the players, and for our whole lives. Only in this way can you ensure that you will not be lost in others and that you will succeed in life. "