Jim Bianco, a senior macro strategist on Wall Street, speculated that the U.S. side assessed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz through conventional military means could take weeks or even months, during which oil prices might soar to $200, causing devastating damage to the global economy. Therefore, it would rather allow oil prices to spike earlier, leaving a six-month window for a pullback before the midterm elections.
In the view of Jim Bianco, a veteran macro strategist on Wall Street, the U.S. military's strike on Iran's Kharg Island military facilities was not reckless but rather a 'no other choice' strategic gamble driven by time and economic pressures.
According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump posted on social media late on the 13th, stating that the U.S. military had launched a 'fierce airstrike' on military targets at Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub.
According to Bianco’s analysis, U.S. government and military planners assessed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz through conventional military means could take weeks or even months, during which time an unchecked surge in oil prices would be enough to choke the global economy. This assessment prompted Washington to signal a strong message to Iran by directly striking Kharg Island’s military facilities.
Bianco characterized this operation as a 'Hail Mary pass' – borrowing a football term referring to a high-risk long throw made in the final moments of a game. The core logic lies in the fact that the global oil market and the world economy simply cannot withstand weeks to months of uncertainty; thus, a high-intensity immediate action was necessary to force Iran into rapid compliance.
Under Bianco’s framework, the political considerations behind the timing of the operation are also significant. He suggested that political advisors might have conducted such reasoning – if oil prices were destined to soar to $200 a barrel without any action, it would be preferable for them to reach that level next week, allowing about six months for a pullback before the U.S. midterm elections.
Bianco explicitly opposed the 'TACO' (declare victory and withdraw) approach, considering it a worse option than maintaining the current operation. His reasoning pointed directly to structural risks: should the U.S. choose to withdraw without resolving the Strait of Hormuz issue, Iran would effectively gain lasting control over the global energy lifeline, thereby possessing the ability to punish the global economy with $200-per-barrel oil prices over the long term.
Notably, according to reports, this strike deliberately avoided the island’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, Trump explicitly warned that if Iran does not open the strait for passage, its oil facilities would become the next target. The news was announced late Friday evening local time. Bianco noted that the timing of this announcement was deliberately chosen to provide the market with approximately 48 hours of buffer to digest the information, thereby avoiding immediate panic-driven volatility in the oil market.
Editor/Lee
