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美股前瞻 | 抄底机会来了?新债王冈拉克:美国市场或重现3月低点!

US Stock Outlook | Is there a bottom-hunting opportunity? New debtor Gunlak: The US market may return to March lows!

富途资讯 ·  Aug 12, 2020 20:26

The stock will be split into 5%, Tesla, Inc. rose more than 6% before trading! Wall Street Wholesale purse Market: 1/5 of US stocks IPO is full of bad checks; $400 becomes $300? Trump's promised unemployment allowance may be shrunk; foreign media have revealed White House documents that the ban may "remove" Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C from TikTok.

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Global macro

  • Hedge funds warn that shorting the dollar becomes a crowded trade: a short-term or sharp rebound

Nader Naemi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital in Sydney, said: "shorting the dollar is becoming a very crowded trade. Risks may emerge at any time, and there is room for repositioning of the dollar. And AMP Capital cut its long bets on emerging market currencies.

George Buberas, head of research at K2 assets, said: "excessive volatility could lead to a sharp rebound in the dollar in the short term. This can be painful, especially for some emerging markets, which tend to be hit hard by a stronger dollar, while K2 asset managers are reducing their exposure because of fears that the dollar, the global reserve currency, could suddenly rebound.

Blue Bay Asset Management, which also manages more than $60 billion, recently cashed in its short dollar positions.

  • Dow futures rose about 250 points, and U.S. Treasury yields rose.

On Wednesday, the dollar hit a two-week high, yields on 10-year treasury bonds hit their highest level in more than a month, and gold prices stabilized after tumbling 5 per cent on Tuesday.

  • Wall Street Wholesale purse Market: 1/5 of US stocks IPO are empty cheques

According to Refinitiv, a financial data provider, IPO financing under the global SPAC model has suddenly soared to $23.9 billion so far this year. It has set a record in 2019, but the scale in the first seven months of this year is 70% higher than last year's record. Most of these come from the US market, accounting for 1/5 of the total IPO financing in the United States this year.

SPAC mode is the mode of IPO through the acquisition of companies with special purpose. In essence, this is a curvilinear listing method of issuing bad checks to set up a bag company and then finding the target company to acquire and merge.

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This model used to be the main business of small and medium-sized investment banks, but the equity departments of large investment banks are facing a slowdown in IPO this year, and they are also actively expanding the SPAC business team. For some companies with poor qualifications and insufficient funds, this is also a convenient means of listing financing.

  • 400 dollars to 300 dollars? Trump's promised unemployment benefits may be reduced

Us President Donald Trump has signed a series of executive orders to rescue COVID-19 from the epidemic as an alternative to the breakdown of negotiations with the bipartisan bailout bill in Congress.

However, on the 11th local time, White House economic adviser Kudlow said that the additional unemployment allowance promised by the government of $400 a week could be reduced to $300.

It is reported that of the $400 unemployment benefit, the federal government pays $300, while the other $100 is shared by the state government. Cudlow said on the 11th that as long as the state government has provided at least 100 U.S. dollars in unemployment benefits, the state unemployment benefits will not have to be paid. However, since most states have already met this requirement, they do not have to pay extra, which means that unemployed people may only receive an additional $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits.

  • Is this your chance to get to the bottom? New debt King Ganglak: the US market may return to its March low!

Recently, the new debt king Geoffrey Gunrake said in the media that the US market will once again usher in risks, and investors have a chance to see the market return to the bottom point of March. Ganglak believes that the dollar will not fall further in the short term, but "it will definitely fall in the long term." "

His chronic pessimism about the dollar is due to the government's deficit of more than 50 per cent of GDP. Ganglak commented that so far, the growing government debt is not inflationary, but deflationary.

He believes that if the Fed goes beyond its lending facility and monetizes its debt, inflation will rise. He added that he had never shorted US Treasuries and did not want to short high-yield bonds.

  • Biden chose women of black and Asian descent as running mates

According to relevant media reports, former US Vice President Joe Biden, who has confirmed the Democratic presidential nomination, nominated Senator Kamala Harris as the Democratic vice presidential candidate on the 11th.

This is the first time in American history that a woman of black and Asian descent has been nominated as a vice presidential candidate of a major political party in the United States.

Us experts pointed out that after considering the current political environment and the election situation, Biden chose Harris as his running mate, hoping to use her to inject more vitality into the campaign and attract votes from ethnic minorities and women.

  • The global aviation industry will lose 252 billion US dollars in revenue as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic.

According to the forecast of the International Air Transport Association, about 4.5 million flights have been cancelled due to the COVID-19 epidemic, and the airlines most affected include Air France, Lufthansa, Emirates, Singapore Airlines and so on.

The director-general of the association said the global aviation industry will lose $252 billion in revenue and 25 million aviation-related jobs are at risk of losing their jobs. In addition, as the impact of the epidemic on the aviation industry is more serious than previously expected, the recovery will also be slower than expected.

Hot news

  • KE Holdings Inc is said to plan to set the US IPO price above the guidance range.

According to a person familiar with the matter, he owns Tencent.$Tencent (00700.HK) $China's online real estate platform supported by Softbank Corp. Group$KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE.US) $Looking for a house, tell potential investors that it plans to set the US IPO price at $20 a share, above the guidance range. It had been selling 106 million American depositary shares with a range of $17 to $19 a share.

KE Holdings Inc will raise $2.12 billion at $20 a share, the largest US IPO by a Chinese company since iQIYI, Inc. IPO in March 2018.

A representative of KE Holdings Inc did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

  • Tesla, Inc. rose more than 6% before trading to announce the company's stock split five plans.

It is reported that a few days ago$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Announced the company's stock split five plans, the split will take effect on August 31. The move could mean that more retail investors can afford the stock. The stock split has no effect on the fundamentals of the stock.

Tesla, Inc. said that every one share held by all registered shareholders as of August 21, 2020 will receive an additional four shares after trading closes on August 28, 2020, and stock trading after stock split adjustment will begin on August 31, 2020.

  • Boeing Co delivered only four aircraft in July.

$Boeing Co (BA.US) $The company reported Tuesday that only four new aircraft were delivered throughout July, of which only two were airliners. Previous reports showed that the company delivered only 20 aircraft in the second quarter.

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What is more worrying is that the number of cancelled orders continues to increase. Boeing Co's global customers have cancelled orders for a total of 416 737 MAX aircraft so far this year. The company has received only 59 commercial aircraft orders so far this year.

Boeing Co delivered two 787-9 Dreamliners in July, one for Air France and one for Turkish Airlines. The company also delivered two cargo planes, a 777F for Dunhuang and a 767-300F for FedEx Corp.

  • Kodak spent 870000 dollars lobbying before getting a loan from the US government.

According to a document released by the U.S. Congress on Tuesday,$Kodak (KODK.US) $It sharply increased spending on lobbying the Trump administration before it was awarded a $765 million contract to produce antiviral drugs.

Kodak spent $870000 lobbying members of Congress and federal agencies in the second quarter, according to documents, including three executives, including the chief financial officer, who lobbied the Department of Defense, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the White House and overseas private investment companies in the second quarter.

Before that, the company spent less than $5000 on lobbying in the first quarter of last year and zero in the second quarter since then.

On Aug. 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had launched an investigation into whether Kodak's disclosure was suspected of irregularities, and $765 million in drug loans had been shelved.

  • Microsoft Corp officially announced that the SurfaceDuo dual-screen phone went on sale on September 10th: return to the Android phone market

Evening news on August 12th$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $Microsoft Corp's dual-screen mobile phone Surface Duo will be shipped in the United States on Sept. 10, according to an official blog. Users can start pre-orders through Microsoft Corp's online store, US operator AT&T Inc and Best Buy. Surface Duo is priced at $1399 (9700 yuan). There is no news from the Chinese market.

  • Foreign media revealed White House documents: the ban may cause Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C to "remove" TikTok.

According to the White House document quoted by Reuters on the 12th, the US government is considering cracking down on key aspects of TikTok's operation and funding.

According to the report, according to the document, the US ban on TikTok may make TikTok$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $The app store is' off the shelves' and advertising on the app is prohibited.

  • IQIYI, Inc. listed in Hong Kong? Respond to "No comment", but it may be Gong Yu's best choice.

According to media reports$iQIYI, Inc. (IQ.US) $It is in discussions with Credit Suisse about a possible secondary listing in Hong Kong. The discussions are still at an early stage and there is no timetable or deal size. IQIYI, Inc. responded to the news and declined to comment.

As early as last year, the news that Tencent planned to buy iQIYI, Inc. had gone viral in the industry. Several heads of film and television companies revealed that Gong Yu did not want to, because he had his own plan. The advantage of the merger of the two largest video sites is that they can form a greater say, manipulate the largest project, and keep the cost to a minimum.

  • Lufax Holding applied for a plan to raise 2 billion US dollars at Mijiao IPO last week.

On August 12, the relevant media learned from a number of sources that Lufax Holding submitted an IPO application in Meimi last week. The investment banks chosen by Lufax Holding include UBS, Goldman Sachs Group, HSBC and Merrill Lynch.

Lufax Holding plans to raise $2 billion this time, according to a person close to the listing team. This is much less than the $3 billion previously released, but the exact amount of money raised will not be determined until the final completion of the sale.

Lufax Holding could not be reached for comment as of press time.

Advance financial report for August

Edit / Charlie

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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