August 12 morning trading, A-share concussion callback, as of noon, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 3300 points, gem refers to the loss of 2600 points. As of press time, more than 3210 shares fell.

The military industrial stocks and gold stocks that were popular in the early days have fallen back one after another. A few days ago, the flavor of the "bull market" is still very strong, and today's trend has bewildered many investors.

If you have to describe it, it is that the market gives investors "a candy" and then a "slap".

The question is, why does the market suddenly change its face at 360 degrees?

In this regard, we are connected for the first time.Lin Yuan, Chief Economist of British University Securities, Li Daxiao, who is known as the folk "god of stock",Zou Xi, Director of Equity Investment of the financing Fund,Hou Yanjun, founder and investment director of Hou Shi Tiancheng, Li Haoting, general manager of Qianming assets, Xiao Mo, general manager of Xuanduo Capital Management, and other "bosses" of buyers and sellers, asked them to express their latest views on the market.

More consistently, they all said that the bull market is still there!

What else did they say? Come and have a look!

There are three main reasons for the decline.

For today's sharp fall in the marketLi Haoting, General Manager of Qianming assetsAccording to the analysis, there are mainly the following reasons:

First, the social finance figures released yesterday were much lower than expected, partly confirming investors' concerns about subsequent sustained inflows.

Second, inflation is on the rise. Although the global economy has fallen into a substantial recession, in order to maintain the stable operation of the economy and society in the epidemic, major central banks around the world have adopted unlimited quantitative easing, resulting in an increasing bubble in asset prices. Under inflation, the central bank's freedom of monetary easing will be limited, which will be reflected in advance by market sentiment.

Third, the market inherent demand for the adjustment of pre-profit digestion.

It is worth mentioning that, after many inquiries, investors in the industry are more inclined to the third reason.That is, the market itself has the demand for adjustment.

In additionXiao Mo, General Manager of Xuanduo Capital ManagementThe analysis said that strictly speaking, the decline of the stock index began on the day when new shares began to be registered on the gem, that is, on August 4, the gem formed a double head, that is, the technical M head. The Shanghai Composite Index is lower on the right than on the left because most financial stocks have fallen ahead of time. In addition to the gem events and the repeated operation of the subject stock has formed "aesthetic fatigue" in the market. There has been no new hot spot for a long time, and the old hot spot has repeatedly hyped that some funds have chosen to leave the market and wait and see so that there is a gap in the short-term funds in the market. It is believed that the funds will continue to flow back after there is support around 3200 points.

In addition,Jiang Xiaofei, founding partner of Dayan Capital"personally, I think it's a normal adjustment, not the wind, not waking up, but the heart of the investors," he said. The fluctuation of the stock price just brings the opportunity to increase the stock that you want to buy most, and maintain the high position and the original plate configuration. "

Public offering, private placement, securities firms declare their position: the bull market is still there!

For today's sharp fall in the market, many people are worried, is the bull market still there? In this regard, securities firms, private equity have expressed their position one after another.

The founder of Shenzhen Linyuan Investment, known as the folk "stock god".Lin Yuan said, "the bull market is still there, and once this trend is formed, it is very difficult to change." When it goes up, it goes down, and when it goes down too much, it goes up, that's all. For the recentProtect the diskFinancial sector, do not need to consider the allocation for the time being. Investors who do not participate in the market should participate as soon as possible. "

Li Daxiao, Chief Economist of British University SecuritiesSaid, "the bull market is still there!" Today's decline is normal profit-taking in the market, and it also shows the sector risk of high valuations, but undervalued stocks are beginning to show up. So where market risks and opportunities coexist, falling is just a process of style change or adjustment.

Don't be intimidated by the decline. We should analyze and judge the market calmly and objectively. We should not get excited as soon as we soar and despair as soon as we plummet. If the stock is good, it will always save the investor from the predicament. "

Meanwhile,Hou Yanjun, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Hou Shi TianchengSaid, "in fact, small and medium-sized innovation has fallen for several days, these days it is obvious that the market plan adjustment, but always deep V rebound, a closer look is the brokerage finance in the protection of the market." The market is trading horizontally at the early high but unable to reach a new high, so it can only find support by falling.

From a technical point of view, the bull market is still there, but everyone knows that this bull market is a liquidity bull market. So violent shocks are inevitable.」

In additionHuang Anlin, Senior researcher of Banyan InvestmentSaid that this round of market rally, mainly driven by liquidity, short-term or to pay attention to changes in liquidity. In the long run, the two logics of the tilt of asset allocation to equity market and the rise of equity market allocation value caused by the decline of interest rate remain unchanged, and they are still optimistic about the market.

Zou Xi, Deputy General Manager and Equity Investment Director of Rentong FundIt is believed that the current A-share market does not have the conditions for fast cattle, and it is expected that the market will maintain a slow bull state driven by profit growth. He pointed out that the surge in the financial and real estate sector in early July was not sustainable. Apart from positive structural factors in securities, banks, insurance and real estate were all suppressed by negative structural factors, making it difficult for them to have a sustained performance. As a result, the short-term surge in financial real estate may herald the end of the liquidity-driven market.

Which indicators should be paid attention to in the future?

From the point of view of all parties, the initial shock of the bull market is inevitable, so which indicators should be paid attention to in the follow-up to the trend of the market?

In this regard, Li Haoting said: looking back, investors should pay close attention to the following information:

First, the leaders of China and the United StatesThe outcome of the talks on August 15 of the phase trade agreement is expected to be optimistic.

Second, the result of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's cut-off of Huawei on September 14. If we really get to that point, it will lead to a comprehensive deepening of the trade dispute between China and the United States, and the market index will probably fluctuate downwards.

Third, we remain cautiously optimistic about the direction of the monetary policy of the people's Bank of China.

Investment direction, Li Haoting said, will be reasonable valuation, with a certain degree of growth and has not been greatly hyped domestic demand target as the main choice direction.Optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine plate, high-speed rail and other logistics plates, rare earths, gold and so on.

Meanwhile,He Shangyuan, general manager of Nongyu InvestmentSaid that the short-term market plunge is mainly due to the recent strong speculative atmosphere in the market, especially some small and medium-sized start-ups, and the direct reason may be an announcement from the Ningde era yesterday. Overall, the liquidity of the market in the second half of the year will not be as abundant as in the first half of the year, and investors should carefully control the risk of some stocks with higher valuations. We are mainly optimistic about some cyclical industries, such as banks, ports, hydropower and other companies, in the medium to long term, some consumer leaders are still worth configuring.

Investment promotion fundIt is believed that the market will still be in the pattern of interval shocks in the short term, and some sectors with higher early gains still have a certain profit-taking pressure, but at the same time domestic liquidity has not been significantly tightened, valuations of financial and real estate and other weighted stocks are still low, and the room for substantial adjustment of the overall index is also relatively limited. In the next stage, we will continue to pay attention to the progress of the game between China and the United States.

In terms of plates, the current market has begun to switch between high and low positions between plates.Continue to focus on post-cyclical real estate consumption and low-valued financial and construction sectors in pro-cyclical industries with a relatively high margin of safety, while the consumer, pharmaceutical and technology sectors continue to be good and bad.

Jinxin FundSaid that at present, there are no obvious signs of liquidity tightening, financial and real estate and other weighted stock valuations are still low, the space for index adjustment is relatively limited, overall, A-share valuations are reasonable, long-term allocation value is more prominent, we continue to maintain the upward trend judgment of medium-term market shocks, and recommend that investors pay attention to the high-profile industry and high performance growth targets.

Huang Anlin said, "I think we should still focus on consumption, new energy, panels and Apple Inc industrial chain, the buying indicators based on performance certainty." Taken together, the overall certainty of consumption may be stronger and more resilient. "