Once soaring gold and silver, suddenly appeared a stampede plunge, the speed is too fast to react.

In the overnight market, gold fell 7% overnight, the biggest one-day drop in seven years, and silver tumbled 15%, approaching its highest level since the Lehman crisis. On August 12, the two major precious metals continued to fall from a frightening height.

In early trading, spot gold fell below $1880 an ounce, down more than 2% on the day, down nearly $200 from an all-time high. Spot silver fell as much as 5%. Affected by this, the futures market was green all over the day, and the main forces of Shanghai Silver and Shanghai Gold were sealed off the daily limit.

In the A-share market, investor sentiment remains depressed. Previously, popular topics such as military industry, medicine, and so on have made a sharp pullback, while the highly sought-after high-priced stocks have suffered a collective sell-off, and the scale of capital flight has been expanding. In the morning, the market index fell sharply, with the Prev losing 3300 points and the gem down more than 3 per cent.

On the other hand, the central mother once again stepped in to carry out the 140 billion reverse repurchase operation, releasing water with a scale of more than 200 billion for three consecutive days. At the same time, at a time when the market is weak, the bank cycle "elephant" has quietly started. Many institutions believe that the current fierce market correction is mainly due to the profit pressure in some sectors with excessive gains, and the long-term trend of A-shares has not fundamentally changed.

Gold and silver fell from high altitude, and the futures market plummeted.

Gold has fallen again!

After last night's tragic collapse, gold, which is regarded as a high-quality variety, continues to fall from the sky, making bullish gold buyers feel desperate.

Just yesterday, gold futures and spot both fell nearly 6%, the biggest one-day decline in seven years. Spot silver tumbled 15%, the biggest drop since the Lehman crisis.

On August 12, the two major varieties continued their downward trend. At around 10:00 in morning trading, spot gold fell below $1880 / ounce, down more than 2% on the day, and nearly $200 from its all-time high.

Near 10:20, the decline in spot silver was widening, with the intraday decline widening to 5 per cent.

Affected by the collapse in gold and silver prices, the futures market opened green. On the morning of the same day, the main force of Shanghai Bank of China fell by more than 8%; the main force of Shanghai Gold fell by more than 6%, and the two major futures varieties were sealed off the limit one after another.

On the same day, in the futures market, iron ore, asphalt, agricultural products and other varieties all fell by more than 2%, and the selling power of funds was fierce.

Affected by the huge fluctuations in precious metals, the Shanghai Gold Exchange also issued an emergency notice.

On the morning of August 12, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that there were many uncertain factors affecting the operation of the market in the near future, and gold and silver prices continued to fluctuate sharply in both directions. All member units are requested to continue to do a good job in risk emergency plans, reminding investors to do a good job in risk prevention, reasonable control of positions and rational investment. The exchange will take risk control measures according to the situation to maintain the smooth operation of the market and protect the interests of investors.

The market lost 3300 points, and the gem fell by more than 3%.

Affected by the changes in the peripheral market and the precious metal market, A shares also encountered "Black Wednesday".

In early trading that day, the three major A-share indexes opened low, Prev Index and gem continued to weaken. Among them, the market index was weak in early trading, with the index losing 3300 points at one point. By midday, it was down nearly 2% at 3273 points.

The Shenzhen Composite Index fell more than 2%, down 2.94% to 13070 points by midday.

The gem fell the most ferociously, with the index falling more than 3.5% that morning, losing the 2600-point line of defense.

From the disk point of view, that morning, only Hainan plate, large infrastructure central enterprises, soybean index floating red, including financial technology, intelligent transportation and other subject stocks all floating green.

From the trading situation of the two cities, that morning, the trading volume of the two cities was only 690 billion yuan, and there is still uncertainty as to whether the trillions of daily transaction records can be maintained.

In early trading, more than 3300 stocks fell, only more than 450s were red, and the market sentiment index was only 2.3.

Once-selling northward funds have recently begun to change their faces. Starting from the end of yesterday, northbound funds showed a net inflow, which seems to imply bottoming action. Today, however, the funds are sold again when they go north.

On the morning of August 12, the net sales of northward funds reached 1.1 billion in half a day.

Gold concept stocks plunged violently, gold ETF encountered capital flight

Due to the sharp fall in gold and silver, A-share precious metal plate fell the most ferociously on the day.

Judging from the performance of concept stocks, the gold jewelry index fell more than 5% in the morning, and the precious metals concept index fell more than 8%.

In the plate, concept stocks such as CICC, Zijin Mining Group and Shandong Gold Mining all fell more than 8 per cent.

Among them, Chifeng gold fell by the limit. Chifeng gold has risen nearly three times this year, benefiting from the surge in gold. Now the collapse of gold has also dragged down concept stocks sharply.

At the same time, the once popular gold ETF also suffered a large amount of capital flight.

In the morning, gold ETF fell more than 6 per cent, with a turnover of more than 900 million in just half a day. Several gold-themed ETF funds plummeted, with the sharpest drop of more than 7 per cent.

Affected by the fierce diving of silver, the only silver fund in the field ushered in an one-word limit drop.

In fact, gold-themed ETF funds in the peripheral markets have also suffered fierce withdrawals. This is completely different from the previous frenzied buying of gold concept stocks and ETF funds.

Data show that ETF SPDR Gold Shares, the world's largest gold owned by State Street, suffered an outflow of $382 million on Friday, the largest withdrawal since March, Yahwe.com reported.

Analysts believe that in the short term, it is necessary to guard against the risk that the increase in the proportion of transactional funds will lead to a decline in market stability. After gold ETF experienced large capital inflows in 2020, investors inevitably chose to take profits.

For this correction, China Merchants Bank believes that the recent adjustment of precious metals is mainly due to the higher-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls data for July released by the United States last Friday night, the correction of real interest rates on US debt and a rebound in low levels, while gold prices fell. In addition, gold experienced a sharp rise in the early period, in the technology is seriously overbought, long trading has been relatively crowded, there is a pullback demand.

Both the military industry and medicine were stalled, and the hot plates were collectively called back.

In addition to the concept of precious metals such as gold plunging violently, A-share hot plate collective flameout has also become an important factor in this market slump.

On the one hand, the leading plate military industry and medicine, which had been highly sought after by funds, continued to weaken.

On the morning of August 12, military stocks suffered a heavy setback in intraday trading. The military industrial index fell nearly 6%, and 41 concept stocks in the sector fell, with only one floating red. Among them, Zhenhua Technology, Steel Research Gao Na, Aviation Development Technology and other concept stocks collectively fell to the limit.

At the same time, the correction of pharmaceutical stocks was fierce, and the pharmaceutical biological index fell more than 4%.

From the concept of topics, vaccine index, COVID-19 testing index and other medical topics, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, satellite Internet and other military topics collectively stalled.

On the industry plate, military industry, medicine, non-ferrous metals fell sharply at the same time. This also means that the hot spots of A shares have obviously cooled down.

High-priced stocks plunged violently, hot money huddled together to fight for a new battlefield.

In fact, in the recent market rotation performance, it is not difficult to see that the more crazy skyrocketing plates or individual stocks, the more likely to encounter signs of a sharp correction in stock prices.

Prior to this, large consumption of spirits, medicine, and other sectors, such as military stocks, have repeatedly risen and fallen on the roller coaster. On the one hand, there is a strong willingness to cash in profits, on the other hand, the phenomenon of hot capital institutions huddling is obvious, which has also become the reason for the speculation of these plates.

On August 12, the index of high-priced stocks continued to fall, with the index falling more than 3% in the morning. in the plate, Guizhou Moutai fell by more than 1%, Mindray Medical and Changchun Hi-Tech fell by more than 2%, while hundreds of billions of shares such as Wantai Biological approached the limit.

From the northward movement of funds to adjust positions, these high-priced stocks have also become the focus of "transactional foreign capital" selling.

It is worth noting that the signs of hot capital institutions huddling together have not dissipated, and the legions of funds previously entrenched in high-priced stocks are now moving into the new hunting ground of convertible bonds.

For example, on August 10, 11 convertible bonds in Shanghai and Shenzhen were temporarily suspended because of excessive increases. The large number has become a rare situation in recent years. The convertible bond market is still hot on August 11th.

On August 12, the market for sharp speculation still did not stop. On the morning of the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange temporarily suspended the trading of "Blue Shield convertible bonds", which rose 20% before the suspension. Due to the rapid increase of Wanshun convertible bonds to 30%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the implementation of the second temporary suspension.

On the same day, A shares are green, but the convertible bond market is still hot. Among them, four convertible bonds rose by more than 10%.

Market participants pointed out that compared with the 10% rise and fall limit in the A-share market, the convertible bond trading mechanism is more flexible. Although there is a temporary stop threshold in the session, there is no rise or fall limit as a whole, and it is a Tunable trade, which provides an opportunity for some radical funds. The collective suspension of convertible bonds may be due to the resurgence of hot money.

However, some institutions have suggested that many convertible bonds have been under the key monitoring of the exchange. Behind the speculation of convertible bonds, we should also be careful of investment risks, especially the risks that may be brought about by the compulsory redemption of convertible bonds.

Bank stocks start quietly

Institutions: the coming of "spring" in periodic stocks?

It is worth noting that at a time when the market is weak, a number of cycle "elephant stocks" began to dance quietly, attracting market attention.

On August 12, the banking sector showed an obvious upward trend against the market, rising more than 1% at one point in intraday trading.

On the market, Changshu Bank rose more than 2%, while Changsha Bank, Chengdu Bank and Ping an Bank were red during the day.

At the same time, bank ETF trading was active, with turnover of nearly 400m in the morning.

According to data released by the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission on Aug. 10, the cumulative net profit of commercial banks in the first half of this year was 1 trillion yuan, down 9.4% from the same period last year. Mainstream institutions believe that the current bank share prices have fully reflected expectations and suggest to seize the opportunity of pro-cyclical value stocks.

GF Securities Co., LTD. pointed out that the current valuation of the banking sector is at the bottom of history, and the position of public funds has dropped to a low level, which basically contains the market's expectation of negative growth in bank net profit this year compared with the same period last year.

Guotai Junan strategy said that the banking industry will follow the economic recovery to usher in an inflection point:. Due to the marginal tightening of monetary policy under the economic recovery, the pace of interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction slows down, bank lending rates do not have much room for decline, which helps to ease the pressure on banks to narrow interest rates. At the same time, the economic recovery has improved the margin of credit risk, and the adverse growth rate has slowed down under the sustained economic recovery.

Guotai Junan strategy pointed out that at present, the market has fully responded to the pessimistic expectations of banks. As an important representative of pro-cyclical, but also with undervalued characteristics of the banking sector, is in a good opportunity for layout.

The central mother made a hand for three days in a row, and the scale of water release reached 200 billion.

In addition to cyclical signals such as banks, the actions of the money markets are also noteworthy.

On the morning of August 12, the central bank conducted a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 140 billion yuan in the open market, and no reverse repurchase expired today. The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations for three consecutive days, with a cumulative net investment of 200 billion yuan.

On August 11, the capital interest rate rose, overnight, 7-day interest rates rebounded to a nearly one-month high, 7-day Shibor nearly 2.5% DR007 weighted average interest rates rose to more than 2.4%. Data show that as of the 11th, the weighted average interest rate on interbank certificates of deposit had risen to 2.77% from 2.68% on Friday, with six-month varieties rising by more than 10 basis points.

Prior to this, some market analysts believed that one of the reasons for the sharp fall in the market was the "reduction of the intensity of water discharge". According to the data of the central bank, the growth rates of M1 and M2 are divided. At the end of July, broad money M2 grew 10.7 percent year on year, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month and 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year; narrow money M1 grew 6.9 percent year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of last month and 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

A number of macro analysts said that this essentially reflects that after June, monetary policy has returned to a sound track from an emergency model during the anti-epidemic period, from aggregate easing to structural optimization, and monetary policy regulation and control will be more "precise" in the future. and through structural monetary policy tools to achieve, pay attention to the effectiveness of policy transmission.

Mingming, deputy director of CITIC Research Institute, believes that from the total level, regulation and control should be exercised, no flooding should be carried out, liquidity is expected to shrink, the interest rate of open market operation will remain stable, and "monetary stability" will run through the second half of the year.

Jin Yi team of Guohai Securities believes that it is difficult to effectively alleviate the long-end financial pressure by relying solely on open market operations. Superimposed in the second quarter, the overreserve rate fell sharply compared with the first quarter, the volatility of the capital side increased, and the possibility of a hedging reserve cut in September increased. In its second-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the central bank continued to emphasize the importance of structural instruments, and there is also the possibility of a reduction in re-lending rates.

Profit-taking pressure impacts A-shares, institutions: valuation differentiation will end

For the recent market slump, many institutions have also issued their own views. According to the analysis of brokerage institutions, the recent market adjustment means that the pattern of market interval shocks continues, with some sectors showing selling pressure of profit-taking. However, it does not mean that the overall A-share trend has changed fundamentally.

China Merchants Fund expects that the short-term market will still be in an interval shock pattern, some of the earlier higher growth of the plate there is a certain profit-taking pressure. However, there are no obvious signs of liquidity tightening and valuations of heavyweights such as financial and real estate stocks are still low, so the room for index adjustment is relatively limited.

Yan Xiang, chief strategist at Guoxin Securities, pointed out that behind the market adjustment means that valuation differentiation is converging. At present, the valuation differentiation of A shares has reached the historical extreme level, which is mainly due to the "health and pull valuation" market brought about by monetary easing, and the undervalued plate fundamentals are relatively more affected by the epidemic.

From historical experience, even in the big bull market, there will be obvious phased "valuation convergence" market (2006, 2007, 2014), if the market adjustment valuation convergence probability is greater. "

Yanxiang team said that in the medium to long term, the big logic of "technology + consumption" has not changed, and the core risk point lies in the continuous rise of PPI. However, in the short term, it is considered that we can actively pay attention to the convergence opportunities after the differentiation of extreme valuation, and it is suggested to add undervalued varieties appropriately.

Anxin strategy said that maintain the market short-term "neutral" judgment, that is, the market at this stage is in a volatile pattern, short-term external influence, a new round of overall rising market still need to wait, the structure focuses on the "domestic cycle", the recent focus on military industry, Xinchuang, Apple Inc industrial chain, liquor, building materials and so on.