According to reports, a senior White House official revealed that this "180-degree shift" was entirely due to a change in Trump himself – he was persuaded by his advisors that action must be taken to suppress oil price volatility. U.S. officials disclosed that the core driving force behind this release was the Trump administration's deep concern over the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Within a few hours, the Trump administration completed a stunning policy reversal that left allies astonished. It shifted from opposing to promoting an agreement among the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release an unprecedented emergency oil reserve of 400 million barrels—more than twice the size of the largest previous release.
On March 11, according to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright explicitly stated during the G7 meeting on Tuesday morning that large-scale market intervention was "premature." However, less than two hours later, the U.S. stance abruptly reversed, and it began actively lobbying allies to push forward this unprecedented action.
The report pointed out that a senior White House official revealed that this "180-degree turn" was entirely due to Trump's personal change—he decided under the persuasion of his advisors that action must be taken to suppress oil price volatility. He then instructed Wright to promote market intervention. This abrupt reversal reflects the high level of instability in decision-making by the Trump administration during the Iran war.
However, the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of this "largest-ever" intervention. The release of 400 million barrels is equivalent to only about 20 days of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, yet oil prices still rose by more than 5% on Wednesday.
From "Opposition" to "Promotion": A Policy Reversal Within Hours
According to The Wall Street Journal citing sources familiar with the matter, on Tuesday morning, Chris Wright conveyed the White House’s position at the G7 energy ministers' meeting: given that oil prices had recently fallen below $90 per barrel, large-scale market intervention was deemed "premature." This statement reflected Trump’s thinking at the time.
However, less than two hours later, U.S. officials completely reversed their position and began pressuring allies to push for a large-scale oil release.
European officials were shocked by this sudden change but ultimately chose to follow suit. Subsequently, the 32 member countries of the IEA agreed to this historic largest emergency oil reserve release plan, even breaking the organization’s usual practice of allowing members a 48-hour review period, finalizing the decision rapidly.
According to U.S. officials, the core driving force behind this release was the Trump administration’s deep concern over the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway in the Persian Gulf supplies about one-fifth of the world’s oil, and its prolonged closure would severely impact global energy markets.
Iran had repeatedly threatened before the U.S. launched its bombing campaign on February 28 that it would block the Strait of Hormuz if attacked by the U.S. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials hastily responded to this economic shock without prior diplomatic groundwork or advance notice to key allies.
Arnab Datta, Executive Director of Policy Implementation at Employ America, offered direct criticism:
"What shocks me is the fundamental lack of preparation for the energy market consequences of this war. Nothing has been prepared, absolutely nothing."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the decision by stating:
"President Trump previously stated that he would responsibly tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at an appropriate time, and now is the right moment."
Largest-ever release in history: Can oil prices hold above $100 per barrel?
The total volume coordinated by the IEA this time reaches 400 million barrels, far exceeding the previous record of 182 million barrels set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The United States will shoulder the largest share, exceeding 100 million barrels.
According to reports, insiders revealed that if fully released into the market, U.S. strategic petroleum reserves will drop to less than half, hitting the lowest level since at least 2008—while Trump pledged in his inaugural address to 'fill it to the top,' with current reserves at only 60% capacity.
Regarding allocations among other member countries, a European energy minister disclosed that Japan will release 30.5 million barrels, Canada 23.6 million barrels, and Germany 19.5 million barrels; French officials indicated that France will contribute 14.5 million barrels, while the remaining 32 IEA member countries will provide smaller shares.
Notably, some member countries were not enthusiastic about participating. Major European nations like Germany initially expressed reservations, believing that large-scale intervention would have limited impact on lowering oil prices while the strait remains blockaded.
The remarks by German Energy Minister Katherina Reiche were particularly nuanced—while announcing Germany's participation, she still questioned the effectiveness of the intervention: "We are still far from $110 per barrel, and the market appears to be responding positively."
Moreover, according to the Wall Street Journal, a chief executive of a major US investment bank even warned a European minister that deploying "maximum firepower" so early could backfire, sending a signal to the markets that Trump is losing confidence. However, governments ultimately abandoned their resistance to avoid greater market turmoil caused by public divisions.
Despite the unprecedented scale, the market remains skeptical about whether this intervention can effectively suppress oil prices. On Wednesday, oil prices surged by more than 5%, with most of the increase occurring after the Wall Street Journal disclosed details of the IEA's intervention plan.
Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics in London, noted: "The speed at which IEA member countries are providing emergency barrels cannot simultaneously compensate for the loss of supply from the Middle East, even if hostilities end quickly."
Analysts believe that the release of 400 million barrels is equivalent to only about 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, a figure that has led to widespread doubts about whether it can stabilize oil prices below $100 per barrel.
Editor/Lambor
