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Copper is reshaping the global mining profit landscape! Harmony (HMY.US) shifts from gold dominance to betting on a surge in copper demand.

Zhitong Finance ·  Mar 11 17:33

Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY.US), which has long focused on the exploration and extraction of precious metal assets such as gold, disclosed for the first time in its half-year financial report the business expansion driven by copper metal.

According to Zhitong Finance, as global mining companies expand into copper, an industrial metal critical for the energy transition and the AI data center construction boom, Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY.US), which has long focused on the exploration and extraction of precious metals like gold, disclosed in its half-year financial report for the period ending December that copper had contributed to its revenue growth for the first time.

As AI data centers and electrification trends push copper into the category of 'hard demand' metals, Harmony Gold is actively following in the footsteps of mining giants such as BHP Group Ltd and Barrick Gold Corporation, aiming to significantly increase its exposure to the global copper demand cycle.

This Johannesburg-listed largest gold miner in Africa announced that during the six months ending December, its CSA mine in Australia produced 3,913 tons of copper concentrate. This represents the actual production slightly exceeding two months of capacity after officially completing the acquisition of this asset on October 24.

Gold remains Harmony's core business, but copper may become its next super-growth engine.

As South Africa's largest gold producer, Harmony Gold Mining Company is increasing its exposure to copper through two major projects in Australia, capitalizing on the robust growth opportunities brought by rising prices and surging demand for this industrial metal, which is essential for electrification and AI infrastructure booms. In addition to acquiring the CSA mine in New South Wales, the company began construction of the Eva copper mine in Queensland, Australia, at the end of last year.

"Gold remains the core business of Harmony," the company stated in its semi-annual earnings report released on Wednesday. The company emphasized that the shift toward copper would enable this traditional gold miner to "benefit from the long-term demand for metals with future-oriented growth prospects."

Compared to the previous period, Harmony's actual gold production in the last six months of 2025 fell by 9% to 724,000 ounces. This was mainly due to unexpected mechanical failures at the Hidden Valley mine in Papua New Guinea during this period and challenges faced by its South African operations in sourcing cyanide.

Despite the decline in production, Harmony Gold's overall net profit surged by nearly a quarter to 9.7 billion South African rand (approximately $597 million). Amid geopolitical turmoil driving investors toward safe-haven assets, gold has been on a record-breaking rally, with prices nearly doubling since early last year. Meanwhile, copper, driven by the energy transition and AI infrastructure boom, also saw strong price increases, with LME copper futures surging nearly 50% since the second half of 2025.

Harmony expects the CSA mine to produce up to 18,500 tons of copper concentrate within the 12 months ending June this year. The company plans to invest up to $1.75 billion over three years to develop the Eva mega-mine. Once the second Australian asset begins formal operations, Harmony aims to increase its annual copper production to 100,000 tons.

This South African mining giant is also actively investing in extending the life of its two flagship gold mines in South Africa and announced a record interim dividend to shareholders, totaling 3.4 billion rand.

Copper—arguably the most critical asset driving future profit growth for mining giants.

The surging demand for copper, a vital industrial metal, since 2025 can be largely attributed to the frenzied construction and expansion of AI data centers. This trend is not merely about the procurement of GPUs but reflects the tech giants' all-out efforts to build highly powerful and reliable hyperscale AI infrastructure. The higher the power density of computing clusters, the more transformers, switchgear, busbars, cables, and heat dissipation-related power distribution systems are required in data centers. Copper, with its excellent electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and process adaptability, plays a crucial role at every level, from grid connection to campus-level power distribution, server room power supply, and internal server connections.

The global financial market now firmly believes that copper is not only a short-cycle commodity but also an essential underlying production factor for AI data centers, power transmission and distribution, energy storage, and electric vehicles, as well as a strategic resource necessary for economies seeking independent development amid geopolitical instability.

A forecast report from S&P Global indicates that by 2040, new demands such as AI data centers, defense, and robotics are expected to drive global copper demand up by 50% compared to current levels. The latest research from S&P Global shows that the global copper supply deficit is projected to widen to 10 million tons by 2040, with demand rising to 42 million tons—a 50% increase from current levels. More urgently, a forecast from ING Groep predicts a refined copper shortage of 600,000 tons in 2026, continuing the trend of a 200,000-ton supply gap seen in 2025.

Meanwhile, a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that global electricity demand will grow at a significantly higher annual rate between 2025 and 2030 compared to the past decade, with the rapid expansion of AI data centers being one of the key drivers.

More crucially, the core drivers of copper demand have shifted from traditional real estate and manufacturing cycles to a dual structural pull: “AI electrification + energy transition.” The IEA explicitly identifies copper as one of the cornerstones of all electricity-related technologies and notes that under energy transition scenarios, grid line demand for copper will at least double from 2020 levels. Its data also show that annual copper demand in the power grid sector will rise from 5 million tons in 2020 to 7.5 million tons by 2040, or even close to 10 million tons if the energy transition accelerates.

In other words, copper is not only essential for photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles but also indispensable as a “conductive metal” for transmitting, stabilizing, and integrating electricity into AI data centers and end-user loads. This implies that the unprecedented momentum of AI has not replaced the logic of the energy transition; instead, it has further amplified the already tight demand for copper in electrification. This explains why global mining giants like BHP Group Ltd and Harmony Gold are proactively increasing their exposure to copper, underscoring how copper is evolving from an “attractive growth metal” to the most pivotal asset determining future profit growth.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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