Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the commercialization of advanced intelligent driving may be approaching a turning point, while humanoid robots are still awaiting catalytic developments.
According to the Zhitong Finance app, Everbright Securities released a research report stating that advanced intelligent driving may be approaching a commercial turning point, while humanoid robots are still awaiting event-driven catalysts. The recent pressure on passenger vehicles is mainly due to the sales decline in January and February caused by the Spring Festival and policy rollbacks, as well as margin pressures stemming from rising costs of raw materials such as memory chips, batteries, aluminum, and copper since the beginning of the year. The AI-driven synergy between computing and electricity has significantly increased power generation demand. Given mismatches between supply and demand, infrastructure iteration lags, coupled with the retirement of traditional power sources and unstable output from new energy sources like wind power, it is expected that there will be corresponding growth opportunities for gas turbines/internal combustion engines and SOFC fuel cells. Among these, internal combustion engines offer advantages such as sufficient production capacity and fast delivery, making the internal combustion engine industry chain promising amid AI-related power shortages.
The main viewpoints of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Weak performance in the auto market during January and February
In January, domestic passenger vehicle retail sales decreased by 13.9% year-over-year and 31.7% month-over-month to 1.544 million units, while wholesale sales declined by 6.2% year-over-year and 29.3% month-over-month to 1.973 million units. New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales fell by 20.0% year-over-year and 55.4% month-over-month to 596,000 units (with NEV penetration at 38.6%), and wholesale sales dropped by 3.3% year-over-year and 44.7% month-over-month to 864,000 units (with NEV penetration at 43.8%). In February, various automakers gradually disclosed their sales data; among them, Li Auto’s sales increased by 0.6% year-over-year but decreased by 4.5% month-over-month to 26,000 units, while XPeng's sales plummeted by 49.9% year-over-year and 23.8% month-over-month to 15,000 units.
Boosting consumption and industrial upgrading remain core directives for the automotive industry
The 2026 Government Work Report continues to emphasize boosting consumption and industrial upgrading as core guidelines. The bank predicts that 1) total automobile volume in 2026 may still rely on policy support, and 2) intelligentization of the automotive industry (intelligent driving, humanoid robots) fully aligns with national goals for developing new forms of productive forces.
Pressure across the entire industry chain Beta
The bank believes that the recent pressure on passenger vehicles is primarily due to the sales decline in January and February caused by the Spring Festival and policy rollbacks, as well as margin pressures driven by rising costs of raw materials such as memory chips, batteries, aluminum, and copper since the beginning of the year. The bank expects that trading volume for price may still be possible this year. In the short term, key focuses include pricing strategies of various automakers, order updates in March, the auto show in April, and the realization of financial reports.
Advanced intelligent driving may be approaching a commercial turning point, while humanoid robots are still awaiting event-driven catalysts
Intelligent driving: 1) It is expected that intelligent driving has become one of the competitive methods for passenger vehicle configurations. We continue to see opportunities in the increase of L2+ penetration rates driving related component shipments.
2) The commercial implementation of L3 and above autonomous driving may accelerate in 2026. We are optimistic about the growth opportunities for components such as hands-off/eyes-off detection and alerts, and combined driving assistance data recording systems (DSSCDA). Relevant testing institutions are also expected to benefit.
3) Focus on the application of L4 autonomous mining trucks and unmanned logistics vehicles in commercial scenarios. Humanoid robots: Companies like Unitree made a stunning debut during the Spring Festival Gala, while Tesla and XPeng have announced plans to achieve mass production by 2026. The bank expects humanoid robots to remain a key investment theme in 2026, with short-term catalysts awaiting the release of Tesla V3. Attention should be given to the domestic supply chain, domestic AI chips and algorithm iteration, as well as breakthroughs in new technologies.
AI power shortages may drive investment opportunities in the internal combustion engine industry chain.
The integration of AI computing and power drives a significant increase in electricity demand. Given the mismatch between supply and demand, infrastructure upgrades, the retirement of traditional power sources, and unstable output from renewable energy sources like wind power, it is expected that gas turbines/internal combustion engines and SOFC fuel cells will see corresponding growth opportunities. Among these, internal combustion engines are characterized by sufficient production capacity and fast delivery times, making them promising in the context of AI-related power shortages.
Risk warnings: Policy fluctuations; Supply chain underperformance; Industry demand below expectations; Production ramp-up slower than anticipated.
