Download
Download by
Scanning QR Code

Airline Stocks Are Soaring. Why One Analyst Sees More Gains Ahead. -- Barrons.com

航空公司的股票正在飙升。为什么一位分析师认为未来会有更多收益。--Barrons.com

2020/08/11 23:14  Dow Jones Newswires

DJ Airline Stocks Are Soaring. Why One Analyst Sees More Gains Ahead. -- Barrons.com


By Daren Fonda

Airline stocks continued to climb on Tuesday, tacking on 4% in morning trading. The stocks have now surged more than 16%, on average, in the last few sessions on signs that domestic travel is picking up and that a vaccine for the coronavirus may be arriving by year-end.

Citigroup's Stephen Trent sees more gains ahead, particularly for Spirit Airlines (ticker: SAVE) and Delta Air Lines (DAL).

"An ongoing, choppy traffic recovery, combined with what looks to be continued weak pricing, looks like a good setup for Buy-rated Spirit," Trent wrote in a note published Tuesday.

Among the major carriers, Citi likes Delta, "owing to its balance sheet strength, attractive loyalty/credit card program...and its consistent messaging on middle seats." (Delta has been one of the few carriers to continue blocking middle seats as a health-safety measure.)

Trent has a $21 price target on Spirit's shares, based on a multiple of 8.5 times forward earnings in late 2021 and early 2022. His target on Delta is $38, based on a multiple of eight times forward earnings.

"As the industry's best operator, we think investors will seek refuge in Delta shares once the coronavirus fears abate and sector valuations normalize to long-term trend levels well above current multiples," Trent wrote.

Spirit stock has been one of the strongest performers since March, more than doubling off its lows around $7. The ultralow-cost carrier focuses almost exclusively on the "visiting friends and relatives" market, and it is planning flight capacity in the third quarter to be down 32% from last year, which would be a big improvement over the spring and early summer.

The recovery isn't expected to be linear. Travel demand and flight capacity trends are tough to predict since they have become tethered to coronavirus infection rates and state quarantine rules. Demand seems to have rebounded recently as infection rates receded, but airlines have been cutting their schedules for August and September, anticipating lower leisure travel during the back-to-school season, without business travel picking up the slack.

Nonetheless, at least one investor could theoretically make a profit on Spirit stock now: the U.S. government. Shares of Spirit are trading above the strike price of warrants issued to the U.S. Treasury in exchange for federal aid under the Cares Act. (In theory, the government could redeem the warrants for stock and sell at higher market prices.)

Indeed, shares of almost every carrier that issued warrants are now trading now above their strike prices, according to Trent, including American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Delta. One exception is Southwest Airlines (LUV), whose stock remains slightly below the strike price.

Why does this matter? One reason is that airlines are trying to line up more aid from the government, hoping for a second round of payroll support beyond the $25 billion allocated under the Cares Act. That aid expires on Sept. 30. Airlines have announced plans to cut more than 75,000 jobs, when funding runs out in October, assuming demand trends don't improve sharply.

The warrants issued under the Cares Act could now come into play as a bargaining chip. Congress could set more aggressive strike prices for additional warrants, giving lawmakers political cover as they head into the November elections, Trent notes. Bailing out airlines again could be a tough sell politically, especially if lawmakers can't agree on unemployment benefits and aid to other industries.

"Deeper in-the-money warrants on a potential second round of aid might be one way to show taxpayers that their efforts are not in vain," Trent wrote.

If the stocks continue to rally from here, the Treasury could see a nice return on its warrant investment.

Whether airlines would take more government money under tougher conditions remains unknown. And with negotiations on a stimulus package apparently stalled, it is unclear when more financing could start flowing. For now, the reason to own the stocks would be hopes that the virus infection rates continue to decline and that the economy springs back to life.

Write to Daren Fonda at daren.fonda@barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 11, 2020 11:14 ET (15:14 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ航空公司的股票正在飙升。为什么一位分析师认为未来会有更多收益。--Barrons.com


达伦·方达(Daren Fonda)著

周二,航空股继续攀升,在早盘交易中上涨了4%。过去几个交易日,这些股票的平均涨幅超过16%,原因是有迹象表明,国内旅游正在升温,冠状病毒疫苗可能会在年底前到达。

花旗集团(Citigroup)的斯蒂芬·特伦特(Stephen Trent)认为未来会有更多收益,特别是精神航空公司(股票代码:SAVE)和达美航空公司(DAL)。

特伦特在周二发布的一份报告中写道:“持续的、起伏不定的交通复苏,加上看似持续疲软的定价,看起来是买入评级的SPIRE的一个很好的设置。”

在主要的航空公司中,花旗喜欢达美航空,“因为它的资产负债表实力,有吸引力的忠诚度/信用卡计划……以及它在中间座位上始终如一的信息传递。”(达美航空是为数不多的继续封锁中间座位作为健康安全措施的航空公司之一。)

特伦特对SPIRIT的股价设定了21美元的目标价,这是基于2021年末和2022年初8.5倍的预期市盈率。他对达美航空的目标是38美元,基于8倍的预期市盈率。

Trent写道,“作为行业最佳运营商,我们认为一旦冠状病毒担忧消退,行业估值正常化至远高于当前倍数的长期趋势水平,投资者将在达美航空股票中寻求避险.”

自3月份以来,烈酒类股一直是表现最强劲的股票之一,较7美元左右的低点上涨了一倍多。这家超低成本航空公司几乎只专注于“走亲访友”市场,该公司计划第三季度的航班运力将比去年下降32%,这将是春季和初夏的一大改善。

预计复苏不会是线性的。旅行需求和航班容量趋势很难预测,因为它们已经与冠状病毒感染率和国家检疫规定挂钩。随着感染率的下降,需求最近似乎有所回升,但航空公司一直在削减8月和9月的时刻表,预计开学季节休闲旅行会减少,商务旅行不会填补缺口。

尽管如此,从理论上讲,现在至少有一个投资者可以从精神号股票上获利:美国政府。SPIRIT的股价高于向美国财政部发行的认股权证的执行价,以换取根据凯雷斯法(Cares Act)提供的联邦援助。(理论上,政府可以赎回认股权证以换取股票,并以更高的市场价格出售。)

事实上,根据Trent的数据,几乎每一家发行权证的航空公司的股价现在都高于执行价,包括美国航空集团(AAL)、联合航空控股公司(UAL)和达美航空。西南航空(Southwest Airlines)是一个例外,其股价仍略低于执行价。

这有什么关系呢?其中一个原因是,航空公司正试图从政府那里获得更多援助,希望在根据护理法案分配的250亿美元之外,获得第二轮工资支持。这项援助将于9月1日到期。30.航空公司已经宣布计划在10月份资金耗尽时裁员7.5万多人,前提是需求趋势不会大幅改善。

根据凯雷斯法(Cares Act)发行的逮捕令现在可以作为讨价还价的筹码发挥作用。特伦特指出,国会可以为额外的权证设定更激进的执行价,为立法者在11月选举前提供政治掩护。再次救助航空公司在政治上可能很难说服,特别是如果立法者不能就失业救济金和对其他行业的援助达成一致的话。

特伦特写道:“对潜在的第二轮援助进行更深入的资金担保,可能是向纳税人表明他们的努力没有白费的一种方式。”

如果股市从现在开始继续反弹,财政部的权证投资可能会获得不错的回报。

目前尚不清楚,在更严峻的条件下,航空公司是否会接受更多的政府资金。由于刺激计划的谈判显然陷入停滞,更多的融资何时可以开始流动尚不清楚。就目前而言,持有这些股票的原因是希望病毒感染率继续下降,希望经济恢复活力。

写信给Daren Fonda,电子邮件:daren.fonda@Barrons.com

(完)道琼斯通讯社

2020年8月11日美国东部时间11:14(格林尼治标准时间15:14)

版权所有(C)2020道琼斯公司。

免责声明:中文翻译由腾讯翻译君提供支持,富途对翻译信息的准确性或可靠性所造成的任何损失不承担任何责任。

Copyright©2019 FUTU. All rights reserved. FUTU does not provide any investment advice.

Back to the Top