Historical data shows that after a short-term surge in crude oil prices, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$it typically increases by an average of 20% within four weeks.
Article by Cointelegraph
Compiled by AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Key Insights:
Following a spike in oil prices, Bitcoin tends to surge by 20%, although the initial market reaction is often chaotic and difficult to predict.Bitcoin’s current price movement closely resembles that of technology stocks, with an 81% correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index, meaning fluctuations in oil prices have minimal impact on it.
On Sunday, oil prices $Crude Oil Futures (APR6) (CLmain.US)$ soared to $101 per barrel, marking a 55% surge in 10 days and setting a historical record. This event caused $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Bitcoin to fall to its lowest level in 10 weeks last Friday. Bitcoin initially saw a rise, gaining 16% from February 28 to this Wednesday, but by Sunday it had completely reversed those gains.
Traders are now speculating on how the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran will impact $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ . Persistently high oil prices could drive up inflation, reducing consumer spending, especially given the already weak state of the U.S. job market. In the past, when oil prices surged suddenly, Bitcoin did follow with gains, but typically it took four weeks.
In the week starting June 11, 2025, WTI crude oil prices surged by 15% after international agencies confirmed that Iran had refined uranium for nuclear warheads, followed two days later by an Israeli airstrike in the region. Bitcoin initially dropped by 8%, falling from $110,300 to $101,000, but rebounded thereafter, gaining 10% over four weeks.
On March 27, 2023, a legal dispute caused Kurdistan’s daily crude oil exports to drop by 450,000 barrels, compounded by OPEC’s unexpected production cuts, leading WTI oil prices to rise by 16% over eight days. Bitcoin gained 12% within two weeks but lacked momentum, dropping back to $28,000 within a month.
On February 28, 2022, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global sanctions were imposed on Russian oil exports, causing WTI oil prices to soar 29% that week. Bitcoin initially rose by 17% in the first two days, but the gains were erased by the weekend. However, over the next three weeks, it surged another 25%, reaching $48,000.
Over a nine-day period starting on November 2, 2020, WTI oil prices surged by 23% due to anticipation of a COVID-19 vaccine and an unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. Bitcoin also rose, gaining 16% over the same period, and within less than a month, skyrocketed by 45% from $13,500.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach $79,200 by the end of March.
In the four instances where WTI oil prices surged over 15% within a 10-day period, Bitcoin averaged a 20% increase in the following four weeks. These occurrences took place between November 2020 and June 2025, spanning most of the bear markets in 2022 and 2023. However, with only four data points, the sample size is too small to establish a strong correlation.
Recently, Bitcoin has been closely tracking technology stocks, showing an 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index. Therefore, if either Iran or the U.S. softens its stance and tensions ease, the stock market may rebound, potentially driving Bitcoin higher as well.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin can reach $79,200 by the end of March will depend on how long the conflict with Iran lasts. This price target is calculated based on a 20% increase from Bitcoin’s price of $66,000 on February 28 when petrochemical prices began rising.
Editor/Rocky
