The military industry, for the past three yearsThe market performance is relatively poor.，但This year和There will be a bigger one the year after next.Opportunity.

As the impact of the epidemic on economic activities is gradually eliminated, the production of Apple Inc Industrial chain Company returns to normal, and the certainty of their high performance growth next year will be relatively high. At the same time, Apple Inc Industrial chain CompanyDue toBe affected by trade frictionsCurrent valuationAt a reasonable level in history. Therefore, the valuation bubble of such assets is not big, and the probability of obtaining deterministic returns in the future is very high.

It is undeniable that there are indeed some technology assets whose valuations are too high, especially those with import substitution and self-control. However, in the long run, as the domestic share of such assets is still very low, there will be obvious room for share increase in the future. In the process, the revenues and profits of these companies shouldCan be realizedA substantial increase. From the perspective of the next one or two years, the high probability can digest the current高Valuation.

althoughValuation of the technology and pharmaceutical industriesRelative to其HistoryValuation、MarketThe level of valuation andOther industriesValuation ofHorizontally speaking，There's a premium, buttheyIndeed能Digest with higher income and profit growthValuationFoam。

In the past, the technological characteristics of the Hong Kong market were very weak, and the market was mainly dominated by companies like Tencent. However, at present, the scientific and technological characteristics of Hong Kong stocks have been significantly strengthened. With the return of Chinese stocks and the choice of high-quality Internet companies to list in Hong Kong, it can provide the market with strong Internet targets, which is the most important reason why the Hong Kong market is worth long-term allocation.

In the long term, companies that can innovate in technology and transform traditional industries will have continuous opportunities in the next 5-10 years, which is determined by the large industrial environment.

The above is Zheng Xi, deputy general manager of Yi Fangda's equity investment management department and deputy general manager of the research department, who recently expressed his latest investment views in a small-scale roadshow.

According to the data, Zheng Xi has joined the Yi Fonda Fund for 14 years.The total assets of the current fund are 11.466 billion yuan.，The annualized return of past products is 22.55%.。He has complete experience in TMT research, has a global perspective, and is good at grasping the direction of industrial development.

Among them, the rate of return of Yi Fangda Information Industry, which he has managed since June 2016, is 148.7% (as of August 9). The rate of return of this product in the past year is 99.6%, ranking in the top 7% among 3099 similar products.

What is worth paying attention to is that in this roadshow, Zheng Xi also answered the hottest topic in detail-what is the investment value of Hong Kong stocks with the return of US-listed stocks? What are the next opportunities for the technology industry? How to see the investment value of military industry? . It's all below.

The following is the full text of the roadshow (abridged, in first person)

There is still room for improvement in the valuation of A shares.

From the point of view of the market, A shares have risen for a year and a half from the end of 2018 to the middle of this year, especially the partial growth of the technology sector has indeed accumulated a relatively large increase, so volatility amplification is a high probability event.

However, from a relatively long period, I think there is room for the valuation center of growth stocks to move up step by step.. There are mainly the following reasons:

First, in terms of absolute valuation, the valuation of the A-share market is now about 65% of the all-time high, and after deducting the relatively low-valued bank stocks, the valuation level of the whole market is about 80% of the market's all-time high. Although this valuation is relatively high, as interest rates in China and overseas markets are significantly lower than the historical average, lower interest rates can theoretically support relatively high valuations, which is the most basic background.

Second, the macro-economy is relatively difficult this year, both globally and domestically. The epidemic situation in China was affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, and the epidemic situation overseas was also gradually increasing after the second and third quarters. In such a relatively harsh macro environment, China's monetary policy and fiscal policy are still relatively restrained, which means that China has more policy leeway in the future. Therefore, even if there are new uncertainties in the future, the government still has more policies to hedge. This favorable policy environment provides a good support for valuation.

Third, and most important, the A-share market has changed a lot compared with five years ago. Five years ago, the liquidity of the A-share market came from the liquidity release of the central bank, and the valuation of A-shares would be obviously affected by the central bank.

But，NowAThe liquidity environment of stocks, exceptByCentral bankThe influence of，Also affected byoverseas investmentThe influence of.

For foreign investors, China's interest rate level has obvious advantages over overseas markets, and the interest rate gap between China and overseas markets will continue in the future. For foreign investors, it is faced with a capital market with relatively reasonable valuation, loose exchange rate environment and attractive interest rates. Therefore, I think it is very certain that foreign capital continues to flow into the Chinese market on a large scale.

In the process of market fluctuations, due to the inflow of foreign capital, to a large extent「Ironing」The range of fluctuations, thisIt's forMarketValuationNew support for the system.

Fourth, under the policy guidance of the past three years, the growth of individual stocks represented by growth has indeed obviously exceeded the average economic growth rate.

therefore,Against this background, althoughValuation of the technology and pharmaceutical industriesRelative to其HistoryValuation、MarketThe level of valuation andOther industriesValuation ofHorizontally speaking，There is a certain premium。But,theyIndeed能Digest with higher income and profit growthValuationFoam。

I think the valuation of the entire A-share market is at a historically high level, but there is still some room for improvement in the future.

Apple Inc's industrial chain has high certainty in the future.

In terms of investment opportunities for technology stocks, there are a variety of sub-industries in the technology sector, and the valuation environment of each sub-industry is different.

For example, companies like Apple Inc's industrial chain are obviously affected by the epidemic because their means of production are distributed globally from demand to supply. Some demand side is affected, some supply side, logistics side are affected.

Therefore, the performance of the relevant Apple Inc industrial chain company will be greatly negatively affected this year.

But,Looking forward to next yearWith the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic on economic activities，Apple Inc Industrial chain CompanyProductionWill return to normal.，theyHigh performance growth next year的The certainty is high。At the same time, because Apple Inc Industrial chain Company suffered trade frictionThe influence ofValuation officeHistorical reasonable level。So this kind of assetsValuationThe bubble is not big, and the probability of obtaining deterministic returns in the future is very high.。

It is undeniable that there are indeed some technology assets whose valuations are too high, especially those with import substitution and self-control. However, in the long run, as the domestic share of such assets is still very low, there will be obvious room for share increase in the future. In the process, the revenues and profits of these companies shouldCan be realizedA substantial increase. From the perspective of the next one or two years, the high probability can digest the current高Valuation.

Overall, although the valuations of technology stocks have improved compared with history, the fundamentals of related companies are also accelerating. From the perspective of longer-dimensional investment opportunities, the relevant technology stocks are still in a relatively reasonable space at present.

Hong Kong stock allocation value ratioA shares are better

I have the following views on Hong Kong technology stocks:

first、Relative A shares，Hong Kong stocksAllocation valueHigher。

Hong Kong stocks are mainly institutional investors, and the valuation has a certain discount relative to similar assets. for institutions like us with long-term allocation, the valuation discount helps to improve the long-term yield of the entire portfolio. At the same time, it also helps to reduce the volatility of the combination. This is the basis on which the Hong Kong market is worth allocating.

For technology stocks, the target of the Hong Kong market is worth focusing on.

In the pastHong Kong marketThe characteristics of science and technologyVery weakMarketMainly based on TencentSuch a companyDominate。But，At presentTechnology of Hong Kong stocksThe characteristics have been significantly strengthened.。这Main source于Two aspects：

On the one hand，Return of China-listed stocks。Excellent companies like BABA have been listed in Hong Kong for the second time in the past two years, and more excellent companies may choose to achieve dual listing in Hong Kong in the future. On the other hand, many outstanding Internet companies, such as Meituan, even "unicorns", choose to list for the first time in Hong Kong.

These rich Internet targets can provide a very good foundation for the market, which is the most important reason why the Hong Kong market is worthy of long-term allocation.

Military industryThere will be a greater opportunity.

From a long-term point of view, science and technology, consumption, medicine and military industry will all have relatively good development.

Because from the history of the development of the capital market, the sectors that bring the greatest benefits to public funds and individual investors are mainly concentrated in the technology industry, consumer industry and pharmaceutical industry.

The military industry has had a relatively poor market performance in the past three years, but it will usher in greater opportunities this year and the year after next.

In fact, some companies in the military industry are between the military industry and the science and technology industry, and many military companies actually produce hardware that belongs to the category of technology. From the perspective of fundamental prosperity, such companies will continue to make progress in the next two or three years from the second quarter of this year.

Therefore, I have also set the configuration range of the military industry in the related products.

How to invest in technology next?

In the long term, companies that can innovate in science and technology and transform traditional industries will have continuous opportunities in the next 5-10 years, which is determined by the large industrial environment.

In addition, from the perspective of the domestic industrial cycle, made in China has entered the process of forming a global manufacturing base, and in this process, there is little probability that we will continue to gain market share in the existing space. Therefore, increasing the upstream share is the main line of domestic technology companies in the next 5-10 years. This is also the main line of import substitution.

Therefore, along the above two main lines, we can continue to find relevant investment targets, which are long-term investment opportunities that can last up to five to ten years.

Generally speakingAlthough many technology stocks have risen a lot at present.But I believe，In the next two to three years，There are still many companies that can use their own income and profits的Growth, to achieve market capitalizationExpand.