A week later, Fortune cordially invited Li Shuai, senior investment strategist of Castrol International, Bo Yang, Managing Director of Dacheng International, and Song Qichao, Director of Taikang Hong Kong fixed income Investment Department, to launch a live broadcast of "Niutu Road | Top Ten Fund managers feel the pulse" in the bullpen to discuss topics related to the "bull market".

The broadcast room is full of practical information. The core ideas of the rich way information arrangement are as follows. A link is attached at the end of the article:

A shares have undergone normal adjustment, pan-science and technology will be the main line of the bull market.

1. The normal adjustment of A-shares in the case of rapid market growth.

Li Shuai of Castrol International: after the domestic epidemic situation has been under control, the market has been repairing continuously since April. In the case of excessive and rapid growth in a stage, according to the operation law of the market, there should be a normal adjustment.

In addition to market adjustmentThe rapid rise of the market has caused some concern.One is that regulators may cool down, as they learn from the lessons of 14-15 years and are constantly learning to protect more investors. The second is to worry about the shock of Sino-US relations: not only the previous trade war, but also the expected orientation of the financial war in the near future.

2. Be optimistic about the development of this round of market.

FundamentalsChina's GDP growth in the second quarter was much higher than expected by 3.2%, and the economy is rapidly repairing.On liquidityUnder the background that the global interest rate environment remains loose, domestic liquidity can not shrink rapidly. Due to the housing policy, negative returns from bank financial management, pension market entry and other factors, A-share cash is very abundant.Policy aspectIn recent years, regulators have begun to guide the securities market healthily, and the policy on the positioning and care of the capital market is very clear, A-share slow cattle is expected to be realized.

3. In the cycle from the second half of the year to 2021, the main line is still the pan-technology plate.

Looking back on each bull market, there is a strong logic of economic fundamentals behind it.That is, there is a main line of investment: financial sector as the main line in 2007, infrastructure investment plate in 2008-09 and Internet + in 14-15. Since 2017, enterprises with core assets as the main line, and companies with abundant cash flow and high returns represented by high-quality sectors such as high-quality spirits, have been in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors since 19 years.

Pan-technology will most likely be the main line of this A-share bull market.The pan-technology sector refers to any high-quality industries and assets that can improve social efficiency.Even include electric vehicles, innovative drugs, military industry, not only the traditional electronics, communications, TMT plate.

But because of the factThe valuation of different sectors is seriously divided, and it has even reached the historical extreme value. I think there will be valuation convergence in the second half of the year.Therefore, investors are advised to look at the equity market from a long-term perspective and not to pay too much attention to phased short-term opportunities。In the medium and long term, there is a cycle of at least half a year to more than one year.

1. The high yield index of Chinese dollar debt is basically better than stocks, which is very juicy.

Dacheng International Bo Yang: as can be seen from the historical data, compared with the equity index of the same country, the long-term performance of Chinese dollar high-yield bonds is dominant, the short-term and medium-term fluctuations are small, and the risk-adjusted yield is higher.

It is also the reason why Chinese dollar bonds have high yields:

First, the capital can not flow fully.Due to the existing restrictions, the capital in the world market can not flow fully, and the domestic debt is only the same as the overseas bond issuer, but it is traded in two separate markets.

Second, there is a lot of information asymmetry.For example, the debt of a western economic development area is regarded as AAA qualification in China, but overseas does not understand China's national conditions, bonds may not be given such a high rating by credit rating agencies: distance can not only produce beauty, but also arbitrage opportunities.

two。 Chinese dollar bonds are "hybrids", and their returns are mainly affected by the Fed's risk-free interest rate, the operation of Chinese companies, and China's fundamentals.

Chinese dollar bonds are US dollar-denominated bonds issued by Chinese-funded institutions in the offshore market. The yields on all bonds are made up of two parts-the risk-free interest rate and the credit spread.

在Risk-free interest rateOn the other hand, since it is a dollar-denominated asset, its benchmark interest rate is not determined by the central government, but by the Federal Reserve.

在Credit spreadOn the other hand, the main body of its issuer is the main body of Chinese capital, which reflects the fundamentals of Chinese companies, including China's macroeconomic situation. On the other hand, the company's own operating conditions will also affect credit spreads.

3.Judging from the above two pricing factors, Chinese dollar debt still has a chance to get on the bus.

In terms of benchmark interest ratesFrom the vast majority of the voting committee of the Fed's interest rate meeting, it is believed that the Fed should maintain zero interest rates for at least three years, which will lead to better liquidity in the dollar market. On the other hand, the benchmark interest rate of Chinese bonds depends on the central mother, which is relatively cautious in terms of interest rate policy. At the same time, the A-share market is very hot, the total liquidity has not increased much, a lot of liquidity has the opportunity to go to the stock market. In terms of benchmark interest rates, it is a positive for Chinese dollar bonds.

In terms of credit spreadAt present, the yield and credit spread of Chinese high-yield dollar bonds are both about 8%, which is at a historical 97% quantile level, that is, it is cheaper than the historical 97% since 2010, so we think there is still room.

In a volatile market, short-term dollar debt is highly stable, and it is the most cost-effective investment tool at the present stage.

1. There was a "dollar shortage" at the beginning of the year, and then the Federal Reserve released a huge amount of liquidity, causing Chinese dollar bonds to rebound in a "V" shape. We thinkThe United States has no need to tighten its currency.The low interest rate environment will be maintained for two to three years, which is good for US dollar debt.

Song Qichao of Taikang Capital Management Hong Kong: the liquidity crisis triggered by the epidemic has caused sharp fluctuations in global assets, including Asian US dollar bonds, and the market has rebounded and has recovered lost territory and become positive, resulting in a "golden pit", as shown in the following picture.

An important reason for the gold pit is the continued easing of dollar liquidity. After the outbreak, central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, launched a huge amount of stimulus, and continued loose money led to capital inflows, supporting the narrowing of credit spreads in various markets.

And we thinkDollar liquidity will continue to be loose.The Fed has created a number of monetary policy instruments since March, and there is still a large number of unused quotas, and if market liquidity becomes tight again, the Fed has plenty of room to respond quickly.

At the same time, it is difficult for inflation to pick up quickly before the end of the epidemic, and there is still room for monetary policy.We expect the epidemic in the United States to be nearly over by the end of this year at the latest, and the peak of new diagnosis will be around the end of August.. As a result, US inflation will remain low or moderate until the end of the year, probably less than 1.5 per cent. The Fed is under no pressure to tighten policy because the long-term monetary policy target has been 2% for several years.

two。 In a low interest rate environment, short-term bonds are highly stable and less likely to have a significant pullback, so they are the most cost-effective and sound investment tool.

Everyone's here.Look for a cost-effective return on investment so that the risk is less and the return is higher.

In terms of earnings, Asian dollar bonds are a sector with a high performance-to-price ratio.Investment-grade Asian dollar corporate bonds have not yielded positive returns in only two of the past decade, even in the face of wild swings in the market at the start of the year.

In terms of credit, the credit of Asian investment grade bonds is very sound, and the overall risk of high-yield bonds can be controlled.Asia has a characteristic: investment-grade bonds are mostly state-owned enterprises, with credit support provided by the state, and credit is linked to sovereignty.

In terms of funding, Asian dollar debt has maintained a strong net inflow recently.The bond market is very hot now, because money is the smartest, everyone finds that money is very cheap now, the United States is constantly printing money, and people want to make a profit, so they will naturally choose the Asian dollar bond sector.

Compared with long-term bonds, short-term bonds are more stable and less likely to have a significant short-term pullback.

The white line below shows the 0-1-year index of emerging market companies, with a very short duration, a solid trend over the past five years and strong downside protection. The orange line, an index of emerging market companies, is still not back to its high at the start of the year. At that time, the long-term fall was so severe that if an investor used leverage, unless he could make up the margin in time, he would be forced to close his position, and he would be out before he rebounded.

Now look at the cost-effective ratio.Rate of return / durationCan reflect a similar toPerformance to price ratioThe concept of. The results are straightforward: the ratio of the shortest term is up to 2.55%, while the ratio of the long end is less than 1%. So the short-end return on investment is good, and the risk is very low.

If people think that the global yield is very low and do not want to take too much risk to gain returns, and there is little room for the long-end yield to go down further, then putting the money on the short end is a rational and we think it is a better choice.

Niu Tu said that the top ten trump card fund managers look at the future.

[Niu Tu Lun Dao]是Rich way elephant wealthIn a live interview held by a number of fund companies, we invited ace fund managers to bring the hottest market interpretation to Niuniu and reveal the latest investment trend! Activity review & advance notice sent ~