According to Futu News on the 11th, the shares of Haidilao International Holding and 99 Mao both hit new highs today. so far, Haidilao International Holding is up 11.1%, and 99 Mao is up 7.06%.

Zheshang Securities recently released a research report saying that Haidilao International Holding and 99 gross profits have been vacated, and there is a performance inflection point and investment opportunities are emerging.

First, the three elements of catering investment: brand + efficiency + expansion, grasp the periodic changes.

Excluding the extension growth, the revenue growth of the catering chain comes from the same store + new stores, and the profit growth of the catering chain comes from fine management, that is, the change of efficiency and brand strength. The best restaurant investment cycle is when the three go up at the same time.

Second, the profit is out: the performance forecast loss + the negative impact of food safety has been reflected in the stock price.

The catering business is relatively bleak, and there is a tide of small business closures.In the first half of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the catering industry suspended business for more than 40 days, which had a great impact on the performance. A large number of small and micro restaurants closed down. Although large enterprises could not make ends meet, they endured a full three-month climb from April to June and returned to near the break-even point.

Food safety problems emerged one after another from May to July, which had a short-term negative impact on stock prices, and the darkest time so far has passed.

Third, the performance inflection point: grasp the epidemic shop clear, high-quality chain leading exhibition store against the trend

Chain catering accelerates the opening of restaurants against the trend and performs well.Listed enterprises such as Haidilao International Holding and Jiumaojiu expanded against the trend during the epidemic, and the number of new stores opened in a single month exceeded the level of the same period last year, and their performance was very excellent.

Haidilao International Holding seized the opportunity of clearing the shops under the epidemic, and the third and fourth lines sank and the exhibition stores exceeded expectations.According to Haidilao International Holding APP data, Haidilao International Holding opened 40 new stores in July, 3 new stores in first-tier cities Beijing, 12 new stores in second-tier cities such as Chongqing, Nanjing and Hangzhou, 23 new stores below third-tier cities such as Dongguan and Dali (after the epidemic, Heze, Binzhou and other third-and fourth-tier cities opened stores for the first time), 2 overseas Kaohsiung, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh and other cities opened a total of 927 by the end of July. 159 more are added this year. (in the past, APP data generally lagged by about 30, that is, 957 by the end of July, with 189 new this year)

Fourth, chip locking: major shareholders hold more than 60% of shares, and there are more long-term investment funds.

The proportion of major shareholders is high and the bargaining chips are locked.Haidilao International Holding 84%, 99% 968%, Yihai International 66%.

Analogy Yihai International, chips locked in the background, once the good news appears, quickly drive the stock price to climb.Yihai International B-end + C-end two-wheel drive, the use of online advantages to accelerate expansion, further increase market share, satisfactory performance during the epidemic. Share prices have risen 128% in the past year (2019.7.29-2020.7.28) and 115% year-to-date (2020.1.1-2020.7.28).

5. Look at the long and make the short

1) the reform of catering and catering supply chain is an opportunity of the times.Catering is a good industry with the largest single volume, fast growth, high dispersion and urgent integration. Large enterprises continue to crush small enterprises in cost and efficiency. With the popularity of mobile payments and tax deductibility of food and beverage materials, speed up the process of catering chain. If we focus on the target of this contemporary opportunity, Haidilao International Holding and Jiumaojiu will be the first choice.

2) after years of accumulation, Haidilao International Holding and Jiumaojiu have the resources and endowments to seize opportunities.Both of them have created a set of more mature and in line with their own model system in the management of food supply chain and operation mechanism, and completed the process from small workshop to industrialization and then to branding.