"I didn't expect that it was so difficult to book hotels in Hangzhou on weekends. I felt that it was not so popular in previous years. Mr. Huang, who lives in Hangzhou, told the media.

"I originally wanted to book a room for a friend who came to Hangzhou on the weekend, but I asked around. No matter it was two or three thousand or five or six hundred and sixty-one nights, the rooms were basically full. "

Like Hangzhou, "one room is hard to find", and Sanya. Peak summer holidays, low-priced air tickets and tax-free catalysis make Sanya the most popular tourist attraction this summer. It is understood that at present, it is very difficult to book a room for that week in Hotel Theme, which focuses on parent-child trips.

Behind the gathering of tourists from Hangzhou and Sanya is the "demand substitution" for a large number of outbound tours to be converted into domestic tours.

Summer holiday peak season, Sanya tax-free, travel around, fly as you like, in this "different" tourism season, what are the different characteristics of the long-dry tourism industry?

Guotai Junan social service team released the latest report a few days ago, sharing their latest observations with us.

The tax exemption policy on outlying islands adds to it.Sanya is hot

Judging from the data of previous years, summer vacation and National Day holiday are both the peak season for outbound tourism.

The overseas epidemic is serious this year, resulting in the restriction and stagnation of outbound travel, and some domestic high-end tourism products are expected to undertake this part of the demand replacement.

▼ is currently traveling to Japan.Be in a state of complete stagnation

▼ travels abroad to South KoreaBe at a complete standstill

On July 1, the adjustment of Sanya's tax exemption policy greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of tourists to go shopping in Sanya.

It should be said that the tax exemption policy is only a catalyst, and people's pent-up demand for tourism is the reason for the hot market. In addition, graduation trips and parent-child tours during the summer vacation have added fuel to the recovery of the market.

As the core destination of domestic high-end holiday tourism, passenger flow in Sanya returned to 83% in June.

As of June 2020, the number of overnight tourists received by Sanya in a single month was 1.225 million, 83% of that in the same period in 2019, while the number of overnight tourists in Hainan province was 3.5548 million, returning to 79% in the same period in 2019. High-end holiday products have become an important substitute for outbound demand.

▼ Hainan and SanyaAs the core destination of domestic high-end holiday tourism.Passenger flow is recovering rapidly.

Travel around--A dark horse killed during the epidemic

At the same time, it is difficult to find a room in a nearby tourist resort like Hangzhou.

From a policy point of view, most education bureaus have adopted policies that do not prohibit and encourage cross-provincial long-distance trips of primary and secondary school students.

In principle, the core provinces and cities do not restrict inter-provincial travel, but the Bureau of Education does not encourage primary and secondary school students to travel across provinces out of cautious consideration. After experiencing repeated outbreaks, Beijing clearly requires students not to leave Beijing unless necessary; Shanghai is not allowed to leave the country, and cross-provincial reporting, and personal protection, teachers are required to return to Shanghai 14 days before the start of school; Jiangsu and Hunan provinces have made it clear that long-distance cross-provincial travel is not recommended.

▼ core provincial and municipal education bureaus in principleThere are no restrictions on cross-provincial travel, and it is not encouraged

As a result, many families put their travel destinations in or around the province.

Zhang Yang, brand director of Hangzhou Kaiyuan Sampo Resort, said, "it is the summer peak season, and the very popular treehouse type of the hotel is basically fully booked every day." Although the price of treehouses is as high as 3790 yuan on weekends, some of them are in short supply. From the point of view of the customer group, mainly around Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the rooms this weekend ushered in another full room. "

The major aviation divisions. "Fly as you please」，Help improve passenger flow

Since May, tourism enterprises and airlines have made great efforts to promote tourism consumption, including hotel group purchase discounts, air tickets and many other preferential means to promote tourism consumption. The free-flying products launched by the mainstream Aviation Department since the beginning of this year have become an important driving force for the release of demand for domestic travel during the summer vacation.

According to the observation of aviation high-frequency data, at the level of 80% of the input capacity in the same period, the occupancy rate of the Aviation Department has returned to the level of 90% in the same period. Although there is still a large discount in ticket prices, it also reflects a steady increase in travel activity.

The occupancy rate of the main aviation division of ▼ is steadily picking up.But ticket prices are still low.

▼ Aviation Division launches Free Flying packageStimulate the demand for domestic travel

Business travelers within 3 days are the main force at this stage.

In addition to the summer travel market, the prosperity of business travel activities continues to increase steadily, driving the rigid demand for accommodation demand for business travel continues to pick up.

Hotel demand is highly related to the prosperity of business activities, which is shown by the high correlation between hotel night demand and PMI.

▼ PMI continues to improve the prosperity of business activities and restore the rigid demand of business travel.

At present, the demand for hotel accommodation is mainly supported by business accommodation, which previously accounted for 60-70%, of which business travelers within 3 days are the main demand at this stage.

Business travelers within 3 days of ▼Is the main force of demand at this stage.

▼ post-80s-90s workers, business travelersAccount for a high proportion

The pace of recovery of travel demand is not a blowoutFull recovery is expected in 2021

The recovery of tourism confidence is a slow process.

After SARS quieted down in 2003, passenger flow rebounded but did not blow out that year.

▼ 2003 SARS has the greatest impact from March to June.The late influence is gradually eliminated.

On July 9, 2003, the National Tourism Administration issued a notice on the resumption of inter-provincial, regional and municipal tourism and outbound tourism business activities, formally lifting the restrictions on cross-regional tourism and outbound tourism, and the society expects a blowout growth in tourism. But people are still afraid of traveling.

The National Day holiday in 2003 was less than 3 months from the peak of SARS impact, and the impact has not yet been completely eliminated. although the tourism industry has rebounded, there has been retaliatory growth-during the National Day holiday in 2003, the growth rate of passenger flow and total tourism revenue was 11.5% and 13.07%, lower than the previous average growth rate.

Year-on-year analogy, we believe that the recovery of tourism after this epidemic also requires more patience.

From the current policy level of various provinces and cities, the relevant immigration isolation measures of various provinces have entered the normalization, and there are no actual travel obstacles.

Regularization of entry quarantine measures in ▼ provincesThere is no travel barrier.

Judging from the data, population mobility is recovering and inter-provincial long-term mobility is improving month-on-month, supporting demand.

Referring to the data of the Ministry of Transport as of the end of June, passenger traffic by road, rail and air has returned to about 60% in the same period in 2019.

▼ Railway transmits passenger flow in JuneReturn to 54% level for the same period

▼ air passenger volume in MayReturn to 53% level in the same period

Highway passenger volume of ▼ in JuneReturn to 57% level

▼ waterway passenger flow in JuneRevert to 54% for the same period

We believe that the recovery of the tourism industry in the coming period will mainly come from the recovery of consumer confidence, which is expected to fully recover in 2021.