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富途早报 | 刺激法案无果而终,高盛:救助计划难产是下行风险!

Futu Morning Post | The stimulus bill came to nothing, Goldman Sachs: Difficulty in producing a bailout plan is a downside risk!

富途资讯 ·  Aug 11, 2020 08:38  · Exclusive

Lei Jun will hold XIAOMI's 10th anniversary public speech at 07:30 this evening; Tencent's game "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game has announced the postponement of its launch; Wedbush expects Apple Inc's share price to reach US $600 in a bull market; and NIO Inc. will announce its financial results before the US stock market today.

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Hot news

  • Shooting outside the White House during Trump's press conference

On Tuesday, shortly after the start of the White House news conference, Trump abruptly left the scene escorted by security personnel. Trump then returned to the press conference and said there was a shooting outside the White House, but the situation was under control. Trump said there was no reason why the economy could not grow by less than 20% in the third quarter. It is considering reducing the capital gains tax and lowering the payroll tax for middle-income families.

  • Trump's unilateral actions did not resolve the impasse, and there may be no real progress in the stimulus bill negotiations within weeks.

Two days after Mr Trump bypassed Congress to implement a small bailout, there has been no sign that the strategy will push Republicans and Democrats back to the negotiating table. It is reported that the stimulus bills proposed by Republicans and Democrats differ by more than $2,000bn, and the two sides disagree on a series of key issues, including state and local government assistance and whether to allow companies to exempt COVID-19 from litigation. and how to extend supplementary unemployment insurance.

  • Goldman Sachs Group: at least one vaccine will be approved by the end of the year. Dystocia in the new rescue plan is a downside risk.

Goldman Sachs Group expects "at least one" vaccine to be approved by the end of 2020 and put on the market in the second quarter of 2021 for wide distribution. This development will boost US consumer spending and next year's GDP and employment data. In addition, the recent downside risks are related to the failure of the US Congress to approve the "fourth phase" anti-epidemic financial relief plan. "We still expect a package worth at least $1.5 trillion to become law by the end of August, but the risk of no further legislative action increases and could pose a threat to the initial economic recovery," the report said. "

  • Erian: the biggest threat to a rebound in US stocks is the wave of corporate bankruptcy

Mohamed Erian, Allianz's chief economic adviser, believes that the wave of corporate bankruptcies is the biggest risk of a rebound in U. S. stocks. "it is not international political differences that have damaged the market rally, but a massive wave of corporate bankruptcies," Mr Erian said. The rise in the stock market in recent weeks is related to technical indicators, and the stock market continues to rise even under the influence of the new crown pandemic and other adverse factors. The technical support market does have limitations, but this can continue for some time. Mr Erian is cautious about the recovery and is concerned that large-scale corporate bankruptcies could cause structural economic losses.

  • Fed study says average inflation target may be a more effective policy tool

Economists at the San Francisco Fed believe that in the current environment, low inflation has forced the central bank to keep interest rates low, limiting policy options in times of crisis, so targeting average inflation may be an effective tool.

  • Nuchin: it is possible to reach an agreement on the rescue package

According to CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin says there is room for compromise in negotiations on aid for the epidemic. He thinks it is possible that Democrats want to make concessions and reach an agreement on the next epidemic relief plan. It is "absurd" to ask for $1 trillion in aid to state and local governments, but Congress should pass legislation to provide relief in areas where agreement has been reached.

  • JD.com, BABA and Tencent ranked 102nd, 132nd and 197th respectively.

In 2019, the revenue of the Fortune 500 reached 33.3 trillion US dollars, an all-time high. Walmart Inc became the world's largest company for the seventh year in a row. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp still ranked second, State Grid rose to third, Petrochina Company Limited ranked fourth, and Shell fell to fifth. Chinese mainland surpassed 121 in the United States for the first time with 124. However, there is a huge gap in profitability between the Chinese mainland companies on the list and the United States. The average profit of the Chinese mainland companies on the list is about half of that of American companies, and the average return on equity is 9.8%, lower than the 17% of American companies.

  • Bancassurance Regulatory Commission: net profit of commercial banks dropped 9.4% in the first half compared with the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1 trillion yuan, down 9.4% from the same period last year, with an average capital profit margin of 10.35%. The loan loss reserve balance of commercial banks was 5 trillion yuan, an increase of 206 billion yuan over the end of the previous quarter, the provision coverage rate was 182.4%, down 0.80% from the end of the previous quarter, and the loan reserve ratio was 3.54%, an increase of 0.04% over the end of the previous quarter.

Review of US stocks

  • Us stocks vary, with Boeing Co leading the rise in the Dow

The market keeps a close eye on the results and the executive order signed by Trump. Negotiations on US fiscal stimulus went nowhere, with Mr Trump bypassing Congress over the weekend to sign an executive order aimed at expanding anti-epidemic relief measures. The Dow is up 1.30%, the Nasdaq is down 0.39%, and the S & P 500 is up 0.27%. Dow constituent stocks$Boeing Co (BA.US) $The company closed up 5.5%; most US tech stocks fell$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $It rose more than 1%, making it the only stock in FAANMG that rose.

  • Facebook Inc sets up a financial department to take charge of all payment items, highlighting business ambitions

$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $Announced the establishment of a new department "Facebook Inc Financial" (Facebook Inc Finance), which is responsible for all payment projects of the company. Analysts said the move highlighted Facebook Inc's business ambitions. Facebook Inc Financial will be in charge of all the company's payment items, including Facebook Inc Pay, the general payment function that Facebook Inc plans to build into all its applications. The department will be led by David Marcus, co-founder of Facebook Inc's digital cryptocurrency project "Libra".

  • McDonald's Corp sued the former CEO for improper relationship with a number of employees and demanded severance payment.

Steve Easterbrook, the ousted chief executive, decided to sue him for tens of millions of dollars after having sex with several employees, trying to cover it up and arranging for one employee to receive a generous stock award.$McDonald's Corp (MCD.US) $He said that after receiving an anonymous tip last month, he found explicit photos in Easterbrook's corporate email account, as well as evidence of improper relationships with other employees.

  • Wedbush raised Apple Inc's target price to $515, which is expected to reach $600in a bull market.

Investment bank Wedbush maintained on Monday.$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The company's stock outperformed the broader market, raising its target price to $515 from $475, the highest among Wall Street banks, and is expected to reach $600 in a bull market. Analyst Daniel Ives is optimistic about the upcoming iPhone 12, saying there will be a "significant increase" in sales of the upcoming iPhone model and that Apple Inc will have a "once-in-a-decade" opportunity in the next 12-18 months. On Monday, Apple Inc closed at $450.91.

  • Tesla, Inc. spent nearly $100m to buy land for his Texas super factory.

News on August 10th$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $It spent nearly $100 million to buy a piece of land in Austin to build its Texas super factory. Last month, Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk said Tesla, Inc. 's next super factory would be built in Austin, Texas. The factory will be Tesla, Inc. 's fifth factory after the Nevada Super Factory, the New York Super Factory, the Shanghai Super Factory and the Berlin Super Factory. It will also be the fourth car assembly plant after Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin.

  • Tencent Music's Q2 financial results exceeded expectations, and 47.1 million of music paying users reached a new high.

Second quarter of 2020$Tencent Music (TME.US) $The overall performance continues to be healthy and robust, which is better than market expectations. Total revenue rose 17.5 per cent year-on-year to 6.93 billion yuan ($981 million), of which online music subscription revenue rose 64.7 per cent to 1.31 billion yuan ($186 million). The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company is 939 million yuan (US $133 million), and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company under non-international financial reporting standards (Non-IFRS) is 1.15 billion yuan (US $163 million).

  • Sogou Wang Xiaochuan: a special committee has been set up to evaluate Tencent's acquisition proposal.

August tenth$Sogou (SOGO.US) $Following the release of the unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2020, the management of its CEO Wang Xiaochuan and CFO Zhou Yi attended the subsequent conference call. CEO Wang Xiaochuan revealed the latest progress of the deal: "not long ago, Sogou received a preliminary non-binding acquisition proposal from Tencent. Tencent will buy all Sogou's issued common shares with US $9 per common share or ADS (American depositary shares). Thank Tencent for his recognition of our technology and innovation capabilities. We have set up a special committee to evaluate Tencent's proposal. "

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • There was a net inflow of 4.054 billion southward funds on Monday.

  • Lei Jun will hold XIAOMI's 10th anniversary public speech at 07:30 this evening.

In order to prepare for this speech (and press conference)$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $Chairman Lei Jun has made a lot of moves in Weibo Corp recently and has released several short interview films in succession to respond to netizens' questions and warm up for the upcoming speech.

  • JD.com Gome launches 30 billion Joint Purchasing Plan

36Kr Holdings learned that$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $$Gome Retail (00493.HK) $Announce the 30 billion joint procurement plan. According to reports, this joint purchase involves traditional large household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, kitchen and sanitary appliances, as well as small household appliances, 3C and other emerging goods.

  • Tencent's game "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game has been postponed.

August tenth$Tencent (00700.HK) $According to the official WeChat account of its game "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game operation team, due to the need to upgrade the game's internal anti-addiction system, the "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game originally scheduled to be launched on the whole platform will be postponed, and the specific launch time will be notified in the follow-up.

  • XIAOMI invests in Canxin Semiconductor Co., Ltd., whose largest shareholder is Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation Holdings Co., Ltd.

Recently, a number of industrial and commercial changes have taken place in Canxin Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., and new investors have been added.$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $Hubei XIAOMI Yangtze River Industrial Fund Partnership (limited partnership) and other companies; at the same time, the company's registered capital increased from about 5.364 million US dollars to about 7.573 million US dollars, an increase of 41.18%. Canxin Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was established in July 2008. The largest shareholder of the company is$Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) $Holding limited company, with a shareholding ratio of 24.61%.

  • Contract sales of Longguang Group rose 20.15% to 11.08 billion yuan in July compared with the same period last year.

Longguang Group (03380.HK) $The contract sales that belong to the company's shareholders' equity in July 2020 is about 11.08 billion yuan, an increase of 20.15% over the same period last year. The contract sales area belonging to the company's shareholders' equity is about 690000 square meters, and the contract sales unit price is about 15680 yuan.

  • Medium-term net profit of Broad Pharmaceutical rose 31.4% to HK $719 million.

$Broad Pharmaceutical (00512.HK) $It was announced that for the six months ended June 30, 2020, the company's income reached 3.256 billion yuan, during which the profit attributable to the company's owners was 719 million Hong Kong dollars, a substantial increase of about 31.4 percent over the same period last year. Compared with the same period last year, the total profit attributable to company owners increased by about 38.3 percent year-on-year; earnings per share increased by 21.27 Hong Kong cents per share.

Focus today

Key words: XIAOMI's 10th anniversary speech, NIO Inc. 's financial report

Advance financial report for August

09.pngNiuniu morning reading:

In terms of your ability circle, the most important thing is not the size of the ability circle, but how you can determine the boundary of the ability circle. If you know where the boundary of the circle of ability is, you will be much richer than those who are five times larger than you but do not know where the boundary is. -- Buffett

Edit / Jeffy Lydiali

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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