The friction between the United States and China provoked by the United States is becoming more and more intense.

From the consular dispute, to the ban of Tiktok, to the "net project", the hegemonic hand of the United States has now extended to Wechat.

Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order.Say TikTok and Wechat pose a threat to the national security of the United StatesAfter 45 days, any American company or individual will be prohibited from trading with TikTok parent company byte and Tencent's transactions related to WeChat.

For a moment, the topic of "uninstalling Wechat or changing your mobile phone" became a hot focus in moments.

Affected by this news, Tencent fell on the same day and continued to show decline today, closing down nearly 5%, with a cumulative evaporation of more than 500 billion Hong Kong dollars in two days, and the latest market capitalization of 4.8102 trillion Hong Kong dollars.

Although Wechat accounts for a very small share of revenue in the US, overseas markets account for 20 to 25 per cent of Tencent's gaming business, and the US, as its main market, may have an uncertain impact on its performance.

What I'm thinking about isApple Inc, who has just taken the top spot in global market capitalization, has also been dragged down, ending the rising trend brought about by the higher-than-expected results.The share price fell 2.27% on the 6th, with a latest market capitalization of $1.9003 trillion.

It is clear that the US attack has also hurt the interests of its own enterprises.

After all, once Trump's executive order really hits the ground, it bans all transactions involving Wechat.China, as one of the important strategic markets of Apple Inc, its iPhone mobile phone sales and related supply chain are bound to be negatively affected.。

It can be said that the hegemonism of the United States is incisively and vividly manifested in "killing the enemy for three thousand and losing ten thousand for itself."

Is it difficult for Apple Inc to hold the first place in global market capitalization?

Apple Inc's decline fully filled the expected mood of the market.

althoughAlthough hardware business such as iPhone is no longer the main focus of its development, it is still an important part of Apple Inc's revenue.。

IPhone's revenue for the quarter was $26.418 billion, up 1.66% from a year earlier and higher than market expectations ($22.37 billion).

-- Open data

Apple Inc's income and business composition

Especially during the epidemic period, this business did not "slow down".The low-price strategy with small profits and quick sales as the core makes Apple Inc's mobile phone sales grow against the trend.Effectively offsetting the negative impact of the decline in consumer confidence during the epidemic.

According to data on global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2020, Huawei successfully reached the top with shipments of 55.8 million units, but down 5.1 per cent from a year earlier, followed by Samsung with 54.2 million units, down 28.9 per cent from a year earlier. Apple Inc, on the other hand, bucked the trend and rose 11.2% from the same period last year. This is mainly due to iPhone.Retail sales in the Chinese market reached 13 million, an increase of 62% over the same period last year and 225% month-on-month, far exceeding other brands.

Global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2020

Apple Inc is no longer the company that only sells mobile phones. It has stepped out of its comfort zone.Trying to expand the coverage of the IOS ecosystemThrough the service business with explosive performance growth, to help the company's sustainable profitability.

In order to achieve this goal, it is stillIt is necessary to sell a large number of hardware terminals led by iPhone to strengthen the service revenue and enhance the stickiness of users.Especially at a time when the service business is growing at its slowest pace since 2015.

And under the tide of globalizationThe Chinese market has become the "second cradle" of Apple Inc's performance growth.Whether it is the necessary hardware revenue or the service business, which has become an important support for performance, it can not miss the potential cake of the Chinese market, and needs the "support" of the manufacturing supply chain in this market.

In 2019, China's App Store revenue reached US $246 billion, or about RMB 1.72569 trillion, accounting for 47.4% of the total revenue, making it the market with the highest contribution to global income.。

-- Open data

Revenue share of Apple Inc Company by region

Among them, the sales of iPhone is more dependent on this, you know, the Chinese market accounts for about 20% of iPhone sales.Once Wechat is "banned", the loss to Apple Inc is unimaginable.

Guo Mingyi of Tianfeng International has calculated that if Apple Inc only removes Wechat from the US App Store, thenEstimated iPhone shipments will be reduced by 36%.Annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices such as AirPods, iPad and Mac were reduced by less than 3%.

If Apple Inc removes Wechat from the global App Store, Apple Inc's hardware shipments in the Chinese market will decline significantly.It is expected that iPhone's annual shipments will be reduced by 25%.The annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices, such as AirPods, iPad and Mac, were reduced by 15ml / 25%.

For Chinese people, iPhone without Wechat is equal to "useless things". Is it not fragrant to change Chinese?

Even the launch of a later 5G version of the iPhone may not shake this choice, let alone the product may continue to be "belated".

Apple Inc currently has a weighting of 6.5% in the S & P 500 index.It has become the component that has had the biggest impact on the S & P 500 in 40 years. Once the potential expectations of the Chinese market are lost, and no matter how big a blow it is to Apple Inc, the trend of US stocks and even the US economy may be greatly affected.

Risk volatility of US stocks

Panic from American hegemonism

Obviously, when the United States personally lit this diplomatic fire to crack down on companies such as Tencent, it could not be left alone.

The United States may not fail to understand this truth.

But it is still bent on going its own way, and it is worth studying deeply if it chooses this radical means to make no difference with Chinese science and technology enterprises.

Just for the good name of "preventing hidden dangers of national security"?

Or is it Trump's "whatever it takes" to win the hearts and minds of the people in order to win the general election?

At a deeper level, it's more likelyIt stems from a fear buried in its ethnic genes that the United States is afraid of losing its so-called hegemony, or that it is losing it.

GDP growth rate in the United States in the second quarter

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 caught the United States by surprise, whether ignoring the risk of the virus led to repeated outbreaks, or the Freudian incident intensified ethnic conflicts, or the US economy fell into the recession since World War II. This series of declines show that:The development of the United States has entered a certain period of stagnation and tends to be pessimistic.

World Economic growth Forecast of IMF in 2020

And whenever, science and technology is the primary productive force.Whoever can take the lead in science and technology will have a strong voice.

For a long time, the United States has occupied the commanding heights of the global science and technology field, showing its ambitions under the protection of the technology giant headed by Apple Inc.

However, this time is different from time to time.

Under the tide of globalization, China's economic strength is developing steadily, the level of science and technology is rising day by day, and it has stepped into the forefront of the world. The comprehensive strength of China and the United States has further shrunk, coupled with the effective control of the domestic epidemic situation, and people's lives are on the right track.This bright situation has stimulated the "delusional consciousness of being murdered" in the United States.-- A serious threat to the global hegemony of the United States, which in turn triggered a frequent crackdown on Huawei and other advanced companies in recent years.

The law of American survival is expansion, and even if we want to violate it, it is impossible.

Buchanan, President of the United States

This kind of consciousness has a long history. It was born in the unique cultural soil of the West and grew up in hegemonism and power politics based on the sense of power and expansion. through a series of recent remarks and policy offensives, we can find that the United States is self-centered.Even if they suffer a great loss of strength, they should bully and suppress the rise of a country led by China.

This situation will make people understandAt present, the development of the United States has indeed encountered a bottleneck.You can't stand out without restricting the development of other countries. In this way, in today's increasingly complex international strategic pattern, it has no advantage in this hypothetical competition.

Conclusion

We all talk about a new era and a new atmosphere, and from the recent crackdown on the United States, we can see that it still has not jumped out of its own world of power politics, making use of national power, regardless of its own damage, to launch a "diplomatic war" to "kidnap" other countries.

This not only aggravates the tense relations between China and the United States, bringing them to the brink of decoupling, but also aggravates the instability of the international political environment, which is not conducive to the recovery of the global development process during the epidemic period.

而This dispute provoked by one side can only expose the lack of self-confidence of the United States.At the same time, it reflects that in the new round of scientific and technological revolution, our country holds the correct key to the scientific and technological road to the future, and in the later stage, we will adhere to the attitude of openness and cooperation to deal with and eliminate its negative effects, and the road may be tortuous. but the end of the road is still bright.