U.S. president Donald Trump signed two executive orders citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on Aug. 6 local time, banning any person or company under US jurisdiction from conducting any transaction with the byte beat of the TikTok parent company.

At the same time, it is prohibited to contact withTencent, the parent company of Wechat, conducts any transactions related to Wechat.。

As soon as I saw the news, I felt that Tencent's share price was bound to fall. But I didn't expect the reaction to be so intense... .

This is the stock price chart on August 7. The lowest point directly hit the limit. Tencent has never fallen like this in history.

There were still bottom-buying funds to enter the market that day, but after entering the market, it continued to be hammered by 5% at the start of trading on Monday. It's really worse.

Does the ban have an impact on Tencent's basic offer?

The impact must be there, but it is basically negligible.

First of all, the ban is only a drop in the bucket for Wechat's overseas version of WeChat.

You can take a look at the monthly active users of American WeChat compiled by founder Securities, which is less than a fraction of Facebook.

Therefore, banning WeChat in the US market will only affect more than one million, and how many basic disks are the monthly active users of Wechat?

According to a piece of data, Wechat and WeChat merged their MAU to 1.203 billion, 1.2 billion monthly active users in the first quarter of 2020, and Tencent really made a difference of more than 1 million.

Guoxin SecuritiesMeasured and calculated2019In 2008, non-game income in the United States accounted for only 0.4% of Tencent's total income., even if WeChatWithdrawing from the US market has little impact on the ecosystem and the profit side.

Then the United States will not treat this.12Hundreds of millions of users?

Since you don't need more than $1 million from me, why don't I do something about your $1.2 billion?

I saw a vote on the rich road.

Obviously, this will have a great impact on Tencent's basic market, but will this happen?

It's almost impossible. Even if the most injured Apple Inc, not Tencent.

Judging from the voting figures of netizens, they basically support Wechat. For most people, Wechat is not just a social tool, it binds too many things. Due to Wechat's strong moat, do not use Wechat, not only Wechat, including Wechat authorized by a variety of APP, but also WeChat Pay, strong stickiness.

When it comes time to choose one of the two, Wechat won't lose too many customers. After all, the 3Q war at that time is already a good example.

The above is about choosing one of the two possible situations. But will Apple Inc really do so? at least Apple Inc himself is unwilling to do so. As the most friendly company in the United States to China, Apple Inc responded immediately.ExpressIPhone 12Beidou system will be supported.

In addition, Guo Mingyi of Tianfeng Securities predicts that if Apple Inc removes Wechat around the world, it is estimated that iPhone shipments will decline by 25% and 36% respectively in pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. It's all money.

Then take a look at Apple Inc's stock price reaction.

It "fell sharply" on Friday and rose back to one point before trading on Monday. From the perspective of stock prices, at least the views of many investors in the United States have little impact on this matter.

So Tencent is still falling, showing a very strange situation.

The possible reasons for the overreaction of Tencent's share price

In fact, if you look at Tencent's K-line, maybe it's just a big adjustment.

Tencent's share price has risen more than 60% from its lowest point this year. Profit is huge, normal profit escape is a very normal phenomenon, in the combination of such a negative, shipments are very normal. In fact, the decline is only more than ten percent.

Risk aversion to follow-up policy factors.

After all, the current situation is optimistic, and even the Americans themselves think that there will be no further action, but who knows?

As a result, there will be a considerable number of people who are unwilling to take this risk. After all, Tencent's most profitable machine is games. And many games are related to the United States.

But what I want to say is that in fact, according to the forecast results of securities firms, it is not too pessimistic about this factor.

Although according to the forecast of the brokerage: Tencent's sea game is mainly composed of "PUBG Mobile", "CODM", "LOL" mobile games, "Dragon Raja" and other high-quality content, the head effect is extremely strong.

Among them, the release of "CODM" in the United States is completed by Activision Blizzard, the distribution of "LOL" mobile games will be completed by the American company Riot Games, and "Dragon Raja" is mainly aimed at Japan. In extreme cases,The head games that can be affected are"PUBG Mobile》。

Estimated, 2020-2022In # "PUBG Mobile"the income in overseas regions is about 12、13、13 Assuming that the game accounts for 60% of the revenue in the United States.，则2020-2022 The proportion of impact on Tencent's operating income was 1.0%, 0.9%, 0.7%, respectively., to Non GAAPThe proportion of net profit affected is 1.1%, 1.0%, 0.8%, respectively.。

The accuracy of the prediction cannot be evaluated. But there's more.Another set of data:

We can take a look, Tencent's revenue is still basically from domestic, 2019 annual report shows that foreign areas account for only 5% of revenue, so the impact is really small.

The only concern is that many game companies are American, and there may be risks associated with making unintended operations. But many of the brokerage's analyses are not mentioned.

Basically, it is believed that the biggest loss will be the game revenue in the US market, which accounts for about 9.4% of the overall game market in China.

Can I buy it at the current price?

This question cannot be answered. But the answer is that Tencent is still a good company. In the words of brokerages, the long-term trend for the better has not changed.

This crisis can be seen, indeed, the moat is deep enough, in the face of the risk of choosing one of the two, users are on its side, which is considered in the interests of users.

But what about Tencent's price? I don't think it's cheap at least. The current price-to-earnings ratio is about 45 times.

According to its 30% growth rate, it is only appropriate. But it's definitely not cheap.

In terms of wind's valuation, it is at a relatively high level.

However, for such a good company, why not have a revaluation, such as "Tengmao"?

The semi-annual report will be released soon. This is a good touchstone. For Tencent, we will wait and see.