It is recommended to focus on the opportunities for improved certainty in e-commerce express delivery performance.
According to a research report released by Guotai Haitong on the Zhitong Finance app, the anti-internal competition trend in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing revenue per ticket for enterprises and is expected to substantially improve profitability for e-commerce express companies by 2026. The magnitude of profit recovery depends on the sustainability of price increases. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity for improved earnings certainty in e-commerce express services. Maintain an 'outperform' rating for SF Holding (002352.SZ). Related stocks include YTO Express (600233.SH), ZTO Express-W (02057), J&T Express (01519), and Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ).
The main viewpoints of Guotai Haitong are as follows:
The trend toward smaller parcel sizes continues, with expectations of resilient growth in shipment volumes.
As of December 2025, cumulative express delivery volumes reached 198.95 billion units, growing 13.6% year-on-year (on a comparable basis), achieving counter-cyclical growth. The ongoing shift toward smaller parcels, coupled with unleashed consumer potential in lower-tier markets such as central and western regions and rural areas, suggests that industry shipment volumes are likely to maintain robust growth through 2026. Specifically, while the first half of 2026 may see steady growth in industry volumes but a possible decline in revenue per ticket, the latter half of the year is expected to mirror the stabilization of prices and a marginal slowdown in volume growth observed during the same period in 2025 after peak season effects subside.
Continuous implementation of anti-internal competition policies, with regulatory support forming a price floor.
From January to December 2025, revenue per ticket in the express delivery industry averaged 7.51 yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.3%, which narrowed compared to a 12.3% drop at the end of 2024. This reflects a moderation in price competition under intensified anti-internal competition regulations. Given the broader coverage, earlier timing, and larger magnitude of this round of 'anti-internal competition' measures, express delivery prices are expected to stabilize and recover in 2026.
Diminishing economies of scale, with autonomous vehicles and new energy vehicles opening up cost reduction opportunities.
Under the trend toward smaller parcel sizes, diminishing economies of scale have led to slower declines in core costs per ticket. As transportation and transfer cost reduction potentials narrow, advancements in autonomous vehicle technology and new energy logistics vehicles are expected to create further cost-cutting opportunities in last-mile delivery and energy expenses. Additionally, short-term increases in labor costs due to new social security regulations may occur, but over the long term, these changes could drive the industry toward value-based competition.
Risk Warning
Macroeconomic volatility, aggressive price wars, policy risks, fluctuations in oil prices, etc.
