"A bull market makes people lose their sense of risk, it makes people more anxious, and it fills people with hallucinations of ability and wealth. Guan Qingyou, director of the Institute of Finance and founding partner of Capital, told the Chinese edition of Barron Weekly on August 6.

Since its low at the end of March this year, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index has not only recovered its lost ground, but also rose more than 3400 points at one point in early July. At a time when the market is generally optimistic and calls for a "bull market" are high, Guan Qingyou has repeatedly reminded retail investors to raise their risk awareness. He believes that due to the lack of professional ability of ordinary retail investors, when most investors lose money seriously, they are in a bull market.

"the average retail investor can hardly avoid losing money in a bull market. If you want to avoid this situation, you must study hard and enhance your professionalism. "he said in an interview.

In view of the view that "value investment may not necessarily adapt to the A-share market", Guan Qingyou expressed a clear opposition. He believes that the market index does not rise sharply in the long run, but will only have an impact on index fund investors, and there are actually a lot of structural opportunities in the stock market. "just because you can't make money by buying an index fund doesn't mean that the stocks of really valuable companies can't make money, nor does it mean that there is a problem with the concept of value investment. "he pointed out bluntly," people who question value investment are themselves unprofessional. "

Guan Qingyou holds a doctorate in economics from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a postdoctoral degree from Tsinghua University. He was the former vice president and dean of Minsheng Securities Research Institute.

For the investment choices in the current complex environment, Guan Qingyou is most optimistic about the consumption area. "those industries related to people's clothing, food, shelter, transportation, food, drink, and play, as well as health, I think are the most stable tracks. "he said.

The following is an edited transcript of the interview:

Guard against marginal contraction of short-term liquidity

The Chinese version of Barron Weekly: after entering July, A shares once surged above 3400 points, causing general optimism in the market. What do you think of the current A-share market? Are we experiencing a new long-term bull market?

Guan Qingyou:If you look at it from different dimensions, the conclusion is different. Judging from the performance of the market over the past year, as well as from the valuation point of view, the rally has actually gone through more than a year, and some technology stocks have even risen tenfold.

I find it difficult to generalize the so-called "bull market". If we only see the index rise, it will only be a little more than 3300 points up to now. On the other hand, the gem has clearly experienced a bull market over the past year.

If we look at it from a five-to ten-year perspective, we are experiencing a "transformation of the asset pool". A possible trend is that residents' asset allocation has shifted from houses to financial assets represented by stocks. As the share of financial asset allocation expands, there is indeed the possibility of a bull market based on long periods.

On the other hand, if you look at it in the short term, the valuations of many sectors are too high and have reached historic highs. Such a high valuation won't go far, and our overall liquidity environment is not that loose.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: what factors may have a significant impact on the next trend of A-shares?

Guan Qingyou:This influence factor may come from many aspects, but liquidity is a very important point. Our current situation is as follows: due to the substantial "release" of foreign monetary policy, while our domestic monetary easing is more restrained, we feel that there is a so-called "water level gap" between international and domestic liquidity. However, since the end of June, domestic monetary policy has actually tightened marginally.

The capital market and the stock market reflect the marginal change, not the change of absolute quantity, but the trend of change. Logically speaking, there is indeed a demand for foreign funds to invest in China, because a lot of liquidity has been released abroad, but their assets are at zero or negative interest rates, so it is necessary to look for assets with relatively high returns. Yields on Chinese assets are also falling, but they are still doing relatively well as the Chinese economy returns to positive growth.

However, this is a long-term background and is not enough to fully explain the short-term situation.We always make a mistake when discussing the market, that is to use long-term factors to explain the short-term situation.

In terms of short-term factors, the policy is relatively friendly and the regulation is stricter, while the contraction in the margin of liquidity is not a particularly positive factor.

In this case, people's enthusiasm for investment is still very high, which is understandable. After the impact of the epidemic, people found that there were fewer investable assets because real estate faced strict regulation. As a result, what residents can invest in is mainly stock assets. As this consensus is reached, some companies are given a higher premium. However, the tree can not rise to the sky, or must be based on valuation as an important basis for judgment.

Ordinary retail investors can't avoid losing money in a bull market.

Chinese version of Barron Weekly: you once said that investors are more likely to lose money in a bull market. Why?

Guan Qingyou:A bull market makes people lose their sense of risk, it makes people more anxious, and it fills people with hallucinations of ability and wealth. From the past experience of the market and from my experience, I have found that when most investors lose money seriously, they are in a bull market.

Of course, this has something to do with our retail market structure. The professional ability of ordinary retail investors is not enough, they just think that they can invest in stocks by opening an account. You don't know, in fact, the market risk is quite large. No matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, retail investors generally do not make money. But when trading in this market is very active, no one will pay attention to these experiences, this is human nature.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: how can ordinary investors avoid losing money in a bull market?

Guan Qingyou:The average retail investor can hardly avoid losing money in a bull market. If you want to avoid this situation, you must study hard and enhance your professionalism. Only in this way can you know what to buy, when to buy, especially when to sell. Only then can you keep calm and have professional judgment and risk control ability.

We gave an example.Retail investors entering the market are equivalent to rushing into the position of heavy machine guns with knives and spears.Therefore, I generally do not recommend ordinary retail investors to participate in the market. I mean ordinary, inexperienced investors, but it's another thing for experienced, professional investors.

Question value investment because it is unprofessional

Barron Weekly Chinese version: some people think that the concept of value investment is not fully applicable to the A-share market, the main reason is that the market index does not change much in a long-term dimension. What do you think?

Guan Qingyou:There is no doubt that the idea of value investment is correct, and many people refute that it is precisely a sign that you have less to lose. You are responsible for what you buy, know what you buy, and know if what you buy is worth the price.

Under the previous approval system, the whole market itself was overvalued. Under the approval system, stocks become scarce assets, so stocks are overvalued. In this case, you have to pick out those things with good performance-to-price ratio and really good quality, which is the process of value investment.

Many people say that the market index has not risen sharply in the long run, but this will have a real impact on index fund investors. There are actually a lot of structural opportunities in the stock market. Just because you can't make money by buying an index fund doesn't mean that the stocks of a truly valuable company can't make money, nor does it mean that there is a problem with the concept of value investment.

More likely, many investors still do not understand value investing and still invest in stocks with a fluke and speculative mentality, which is like gambling. As everyone knows, the weakness of human nature will be fully exposed in this market.

Many people do not clearly understand the underlying logic and do not have a basic understanding of the so-called human nature. People who question value investment are themselves unprofessional.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: in the current A-share market environment, how to find stocks with long-term value?

Guan Qingyou:It is true that A-shares have good stocks in recent years. There are some good stocks in the fields of technology, consumption and finance. The industries that produce "Daniel stocks" are mainly in the consumer sector, including home appliances, alcohol, food, and medicine. But it is not so easy to pick out these good stocks. If we can't even understand the financial statements, how can we buy good stocks?

From the perspective of international experience, the process of de-retail of the stock market is the process of withdrawal of retail investors at a loss, and there is no other way to educate ordinary retail investors. It sounds cruel, but this is reality.

The concept of value investment and long-term investment does not mean that you will never sell the stock after taking it. You need to know that it's worth the money when you buy it, and you need to know to sell it at the right time.

Consumption is the most stable track.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: at present, the economic environment at home and abroad is relatively complex, which track do you think is the best certainty?

Guan Qingyou:I definitely choose the field of consumption, that is, those industries related to people's clothing, food, shelter, transportation, food, drink, play, and health. I think this is the most stable track.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: in the process of stock investment, some people think that the "bottom-up" approach is the most important, while others think that "top-down" is more important. What do you think of this difference?

Guan Qingyou:Some people like "top-down", some people like "bottom-up", there is no right or wrong. In fact, "top-down" and "bottom-up" need to be combined with each other, and no one can escape from these two paths and two logical main lines.

Buffett once said that he "never spends his time and energy on macroeconomic analysis", but this time he lost money on aviation stocks because he did not have a clear understanding of macro issues.

This market is like a "jianghu". People follow different philosophical ideas and practice different tricks, but to practice good martial arts is inseparable from solid basic skills and painstaking efforts. It is not to say that anyone can casually practice martial arts. Most of us ordinary investors don't actually practice the basic skills.

The rising price of gold is not good for the whole world.

The Chinese version of Barron Weekly: the international gold price recently exceeded 2000 US dollars, setting a new historical record. Meanwhile, the dollar index suffered its biggest drop in a decade in July. What is reflected behind this corresponding change? Is gold still worth investing at present?

Guan Qingyou:The decline in the dollar index was mainly due to the high debt and poor economy of the United States, which led to the depreciation of the dollar. There is generally a negative correlation between the dollar and gold, which sometimes breaks away, but this time it does show a negative correlation.

The rising price of gold is not a good thing for the world. Why? Because it shows that the global economy is poor, the outlook is uncertain and the risks are particularly high. After the gold price has exceeded 2000 US dollars, as to whether or not to allocate gold, professional investors have their own investment logic, while ordinary investors decide on their own circumstances. You can buy some now, but it won't have much impact on the entire portfolio.

Barron Weekly Chinese version: at a time when the dollar is weakening, there is a view that it heralds the long-term decline of the dollar's position. What do you think about this?

Guan Qingyou:It is wrong to associate the depreciation of the dollar with the decline of the dollar. The appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar has nothing to do with its international currency and strong currency status, appreciation and depreciation are only exchange rate fluctuations.

From the perspective of historical experience, the economic scale and industrial production scale of the United States surpassed that of Britain in the second half of the 19th century, but it took nearly 100 years for the dollar to replace sterling after World War II. Many people think that the position of the dollar is in decline, but in fact, self-perception is not accurate enough.