Goldman Sachs reported over the weekend that it was more optimistic about the economic recovery because there are no fewer than 160 vaccines under development, and as soon as one of them is successfully approved by the end of the year, the economy will immediately retaliate.

Normally, it takes several years for vaccine development, and it can take nearly 10 years to achieve mass production to safe vaccination. But in 2020, everything is speeding up, and scientists hope to develop a vaccine within 12 to 18 months.

What's more, there are more than 160 vaccine candidates under development.

At present, there are six vaccines with rapid progress in research and development, which have entered the second or third stage. Among them, three are from the Chinese team. Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius wrote in a report over the weekend that at least one of the vaccine candidates will be approved by the end of the year and is expected to be widely vaccinated in the second quarter of 2021.

So what is the progress of vaccine research and development? According to public information, the estimated time of Goldman Sachs is consistent with the information revealed by professionals:

At present, according to public data, global viral vaccine research and development can be traced back to January 2020, and the first batch of vaccine safety tests were conducted in March 2020.

All candidate vaccines have been approved by regulators and can quickly enter the human experimental phase, skipping years of animal testing, which has been the standard stage of vaccine development. Another way to speed up is to break the traditional vaccine research and development phase and mix it. At present, some viral vaccines are conducting first-and second-stage trials at the same time. The last way to speed up is that because of the similarities between viruses and SARS viruses, scientists can directly use some of the results of SARS virus research.

The global goal is to develop an effective vaccine by early 2021. Researchers at Oxford vaccine candidates have announced that if the phase III trial is successful, the vaccine could be put into emergency use as early as September.

Based on this timeline forecast, Goldman Sachs expects consumer service spending to accelerate in the first half of 2021, as this part of activity is most affected by health events. Although US opinion polls show that only about 42% of Americans apply for vaccinations voluntarily, Goldman Sachs is still very optimistic, thus raising its economic growth forecast.

Given the clearer and more positive prospects for vaccines, the United States is likely to benefit more, Jan Hatzius said. after all, the United States also has two vaccines in the lead among the vaccines being developed, and the United States has the worst health incident control compared with China and Europe, and the United States is the economy that benefits the most if the vaccine is developed successfully.

Goldman Sachs said that if a vaccine is approved and developed successfully by the end of the year, it will have an impact on the economy in two ways: first, after consumers are vaccinated, "high-risk" activities such as gathering will continue to resume, and the economy is expected to begin to recover in the first quarter of 2021. Second, the earlier the vaccine appears, the greater the positive impact on the economy, because it limits the so-called "scar effect", and if the vaccine appears later, the recovery of economic activity will be slower.

If the vaccine is approved, the spending category most affected by health incidents is expected to recover most strongly and is expected to double, while the less affected category is expected to grow by about 50 per cent, Goldman Sachs said. This accelerated recovery will apply in the first half of 2021, but in the second half of the year, the economic recovery will gradually slow down.

Based on the above forecasts, US GDP is expected to grow by 10 per cent in the first quarter of 2021, 8 per cent in the second quarter, 4 per cent in the third quarter, 3 per cent in the fourth quarter and an overall average of 6.2 per cent, Goldman Sachs said. While these expectations appear "overly optimistic", Goldman remains wary of downside risks. On the one hand, the fourth phase of fiscal stimulus failed, arguing that "no further fiscal stimulus will pose a threat to economic recovery." "