The United States insists it will not engage in a 'permanent war,' but experts warn that the outlook remains far from optimistic.

Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran last weekend, Washington has been eager to emphasize that this military operation will conclude within weeks and will not escalate into what is termed a 'forever war.'

However, experts suggest that if the Iranian regime proves more resilient than anticipated, the U.S. could find itself mired in the 'Operation Epic Fury.'

Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC on Tuesday: 'The situation we are witnessing now is more complex than the White House initially anticipated.'

'Clearly, the onset of the conflict appeared highly successful, with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, confirmed dead within hours—a significant breakthrough in many respects—and substantial damage inflicted on Iran’s military capabilities by the U.S. and Israel. However, subsequent developments will also be extremely intricate. I am not optimistic about a swift resolution to the conflict, as Iran is escalating confrontations across the region, which aligns with its long-standing strategy,' she stated.

Last Saturday, airstrikes began targeting Iran’s leadership and military installations, resulting in Khamenei’s death at his residence within hours. It soon became apparent that these attacks would not be a 'one-off' event.

However, U.S. President Trump stated last week that the military action against Iran would conclude within 'four to five weeks.' Senior officials, from Vice President JD Vance to Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth, reiterated that this operation would not evolve into prolonged low-intensity conflicts like those in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Such 'forever wars' have sparked controversy and are unpopular among the American public, particularly drawing opposition from Trump’s 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) supporters, who want the president to prioritize domestic issues over foreign policy. A Reuters-IPSOS poll last week showed that only one-quarter of Americans support the strikes against Iran, while protests opposing the airstrikes have emerged in Washington.

A well-planned strategy or a high-stakes gamble?

The U.S. and Israel initially claimed that the primary objective was to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. However, this week, the war objectives appear to have shifted, with publicly declared goals expanding from destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program to protecting American citizens from an imminent but unspecified Iranian threat.

William Roebuck, former U.S. ambassador to Bahrain and executive vice president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, stated that Trump will be highly sensitive to public opinion regarding actions against Iran.

"This represents a risky proposition for him. The economy could witness significant volatility, and he is highly concerned about it. It might impact the energy market and also affect the stock market, which he is extremely focused on as well," Robuck told CNBC on Wednesday.

"He has not adequately articulated the rationale for military action against Iran domestically in the U.S. The justification they have provided has been inconsistent, and polls show that only one-quarter of Americans truly understand and support this rationale," Robuck pointed out. "For these reasons, this poses a certain level of risk to his base," he added.

One of the biggest unknowns is whether the U.S. desires a regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran following the death of Khamenei; and if so, who or what force should replace the Supreme Leader.

Hegseth also emphasized that this military operation was not aimed at regime change. He stated on Monday, "This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime has indeed changed." He was referring to the deaths of Khamenei and other senior officials.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, Chief Middle East Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, stated that U.S. officials are seeking an "extremely swift resolution to this conflict." However, given the current situation, "we must be prepared for the possibility of a prolonged conflict."

"We have heard President Trump mention a four-to-five-week operation, but Iran is a vast country with a large population and an extensive security apparatus, making it extremely challenging to untangle everything and push for some kind of transitional solution. However, such discussions may be premature at this stage," he said.

Analysts unanimously agree that the U.S. plan—or its ultimate objective—is unclear, meaning it is difficult to determine how long the military operation will last. Many are comparing the current actions against Iran to a "high-stakes gamble" by Trump.

Experts suggest that if the goal is regime change, it would most likely require the U.S. to deploy ground forces to Iran—a step Washington would probably hesitate to take given public opinion and the potential consequences for a Republican administration.

"The U.S. military will never be used to invade a country of Iran’s size. This is not a small nation; it is a vast country," former British Foreign and Defense Secretary Malcolm Rifkind told CNBC, warning, "It would repeat the situation in Iraq, and that will not happen."

Is a short-term war possible?

Although the United States is reluctant to become involved in a potentially protracted and casualty-heavy ground war, analysts suggest that short-term, precision military operations remain possible — but ultimately depend on Trump's intentions and how long Iran’s leadership can withstand the US-Israeli offensive.

Former UK Ambassador to Iran, Robert Macaire, agreed that the likelihood of a 'forever war' is low because Iran cannot sustain its counterattacks 'indefinitely.'

“The targets are missile launchers and Iran’s command system. Eventually, missile launches will dwindle, and the conflict will gradually subside,” he stated.

Charles Myers from Signum Global Advisors stated that this conflict has only one outcome: Iran’s defeat.

“This will not be a long-term or even medium-term war… There is only one outcome here, which is that Iran will fail. Iran is up against two of the strongest and most advanced militaries in the world, and Iran will lose this war. The question lies in the form of its failure and how long it will take.” He told CNBC on Thursday.

Myers predicted that the military operation phase of the conflict would conclude 'within the next three to four days.'

“After that, you will begin hearing the US President talk about an exit strategy, victory, or achievements. I believe that, starting from then, all parties will begin pushing for some kind of resolution or agreement… This will not be a prolonged military campaign.” He added.

Editor/joryn