Since July, the most prominent change in overseas markets and assets is that gold as a traditional “safe haven and inflation prevention” has “gone hand in hand” with the stock market as a risk asset, especially growth stocks with high valuations and flexibility.There is a synthesis behind this7The sharp weakening of the US dollar over the past month (mainly reflecting epidemic control, growth, and widening policy scissor spreads between Europe and the US), abundant liquidity, and declining interest rates (real interest rates fell to-1%Low level) and the combined effects of phased risk aversion.

In the short term, while gold is still clearly overbought, if the current trend of the US epidemic peaking and falling continues (Europe, such as Spain, is rising rapidly),It is not ruled out that it will have some adverse effect on interest rates, the US dollar, and gold. However, what is more worthy of our attention is that from a medium- to long-term perspective, when will gold and stock markets rise at the same time in history? What are the characteristics and commonalities of the macro background and asset prices at this time? Is there any reference value for the present?

In the specific analysis, we used international gold prices and the NASDAQ index represented by a typical growth stock style as analysis targets to find the stage where the 250-day rolling correlation coefficient between the two was positive and rising since the 70s of the last century (the earlier gold price was fixed because the dollar pegged to gold under the Bretton Woods system), and compared economic growth and inflation, monetary policy (benchmark interest rate level and liquidity operation), the US dollar index, nominal and real interest rate levels during the same period.If you ignore the stages that last too short, take a rough look at them all7wheel.Looking specifically at it,

i.Last century70The mid to late s (1976-1980Year): High inflation, weak dollar, interest rate hike cycle.The macro background corresponding to this period is the typical “stagflation” phase triggered by the oil crisis. Economic growth declined, but inflation was high. In order to counter high inflation, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker adopted a very tough monetary policy, raising the federal funds rate to a high of close to 20% for a while. As a result, nominal interest rates on 10-year US bonds continued to rise, but real interest rates after deducting inflation continued to fall. Furthermore, against this backdrop, the US dollar also continued to weaken. As a result,At this stage, the continued rise of gold mainly reflects its anti-inflationary characteristics.

ii.1982Second half of the year: monetary easing, low interest rates; inflation recedes, growth bottomed out.This period was in a cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with inflation continuing to decline and growth gradually bottoming out. At this time, nominal interest rates on 10-year US bonds continued to fall, and due to declining levels of inflation, the decline in real interest rates was not significant. The dollar also continued to weaken. As a result,The same rise in gold and stock markets at this time mainly reflects the easing effect of monetary policy.

III.1985The beginning of the year arrived1987Mid-year: The US dollar weakened sharply, monetary easing, and interest rates declined. The typical characteristic of this stage is that in a large cycle of depreciation of the dollar. At the same time, the continued decline in economic growth and inflation has also kept this stage in a continuous easing cycle, with nominal interest rates and real interest rates falling overall. Although the stock market and gold fluctuated during this period, the overall upward trend was until the performance of the two reversed again after the 1987 stock disaster.

IV.2003Year: The US dollar declined sharply, the currency was relaxed, and interest rates were generally flat. This stage is in the midst of another major cycle of depreciation of the dollarIt was also the end of the Fed's easing cycle after the 2001 tech bubble. Growth gradually stabilized, but inflation declined overall, so nominal interest rates and real interest rates did not change much, so it reflected more of the weakening of the US dollar.

v.2005End of year to year2006Mid-year: interest rate hike cycle, rising inflation, dollar fluctuations.This period was quite special, showing declining growth and rising inflation. As a result, monetary policy was in a continuous cycle of interest rate hikes. As a result, interest rate levels did not change much, and the overall fluctuation of the US dollar remained flat.

vi.2009New year to2011At the beginning of the year: zero interest rate,QE, growth, and inflation recovered, and the dollar fluctuated downward.This stage is in the recovery period after the financial crisis, with growth and inflation gradually recovering from the bottom; the Federal Reserve maintained zero interest rates and started QE, and the size of its assets increased and interest rates declined overall; the US dollar declined overall during another period, but there was a large fluctuation. As a result,The same rise in the stock market and gold at this stage is more indicative of the effects of monetary easing, especially liquidity investment.

vii.2019Mid-year to present: interest rate cut cycle, table expansion andQE; Interest rates are declining, and the US dollar is weakening.If we ignore the sharp decline in the market caused by the pandemic and gold due to tight liquidity, then this round of gold and NASDAQ rise can be traced back to mid-2019. The background was the Fed's interest rate cut cycle (July to September 2019), and the expansion in October 2019, not to mention the crisis-style liquidity operation after the pandemic. At the same time, the recent apparent weakening of the US dollar has had a further boosting effect.Therefore, the current rise in the two is also a direct reflection of more liquidity easing.

Based on the analysis of the seven rounds of historical experience described above, we can see thatMonetary easing (falling interest rates or liquidity investment) and weakening of the US dollar are common at all stages. Instead, there are differences in inflation and growth environments, so the same rise in gold and stock markets may be more reflective of financial attributes.Furthermore, this round stage is not very long compared to historical experience, but most of the previous six stages ended with both falling at the same time, and subsequent changes are also worth paying attention to.