share_log

Originally planned for four weeks, now preparing for a 100-day campaign: Trump administration compelled to escalate Middle East war deployment.

Golden10 Data ·  Mar 5 13:04

Following the outbreak of the conflict, Washington found itself in a state of emergency requiring urgent remedial actions. The Pentagon began hastily deploying intelligence personnel and setting up air defense systems, while the State Department scrambled to organize the evacuation of citizens.

According to informed sources, U.S. military operations have been planned for at least 100 days, and may continue until September. Several former diplomats stated that the level of preparedness for this war “seems to be hastily assembled.”

As reported by POLITICO, the U.S. Department of State is ramping up resources to evacuate American citizens stranded in the Middle East; meanwhile, the Pentagon is urgently increasing the number of U.S. military personnel responsible for gathering intelligence for the operation. These measures indicate that the Trump administration was clearly not fully prepared for the larger-scale conflict it now faces.

Amid criticism that the U.S. government failed to timely warn American citizens to leave the Middle East and assist those caught in the crisis with evacuations, a current and a former State Department official revealed that the Department is dispatching additional personnel to Athens, Greece, to assist local U.S. citizens with related matters.

A State Department official familiar with the relevant procedures stated on Wednesday that senior leadership of the Department has taken over command of the evacuation efforts, whereas under normal circumstances, such matters would primarily be handled by the consular department and regional bureaus.

Meanwhile, according to notifications obtained by POLITICO, the U.S. Central Command is requesting the Pentagon to send more military intelligence personnel to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations targeting Iran for at least 100 days, potentially extending until September.

This marks the first known instance where the Trump administration has requested additional intelligence personnel for the conflict with Iran, indicating that the Pentagon has begun allocating funds for military operations that may extend far beyond the initial four-week timeline envisioned by the President.

Under normal circumstances, manpower and resources required for U.S. military operations are often planned well in advance. However, the current rush to increase staffing and resources highlights that the Trump administration did not adequately anticipate the widespread consequences triggered by the war they launched last Saturday alongside Israel.

Gerald Feierstein, a senior U.S. diplomat formerly responsible for Middle Eastern affairs, stated: “What we are witnessing appears to be a hastily assembled operation. It seems no one truly understood or believed that military action was imminent. It looks as though they decided to launch the war upon waking up last Saturday morning.”

The United States and Israel have launched a large-scale, multi-pronged military operation targeting Iran's security infrastructure, resulting in the deaths of the country’s Supreme Leader and several senior officials. However, U.S. and Israeli officials have yet to clarify the ultimate objective of this operation. Trump and his aides have also struggled to provide a convincing explanation for why these strikes had to occur at this moment.

Iran subsequently retaliated by launching attacks on U.S. and other targets in the Middle East. At least six U.S. soldiers stationed at a Kuwaiti port were killed, raising questions about whether relevant military installations had been adequately fortified to withstand what appeared to be drone strikes. Meanwhile, some U.S. diplomatic facilities were also hit, fueling growing concerns that the United States and its allies in the Middle East could face shortages of ammunition.

Due to the sensitive nature of the topic and the fact that some interviewees were not authorized to speak publicly, several individuals interviewed for this article requested anonymity.

A U.S. official stated that the Pentagon is also working to deliver more air defense systems to the region, particularly lower-cost small anti-drone systems, which have been a key focus of research and development by the U.S. Department of Defense in recent years.

The attack that resulted in the deaths of U.S. soldiers has raised particular concern among war planners because it was carried out by a relatively inexpensive Shahed drone. These drones are typically capable of flying below the detection range of existing radar systems. The cost of interceptor missiles currently used by the U.S. can reach millions of dollars per unit, while these drones cost only a fraction of that. Iran possesses thousands of such drones in its inventory, dozens of which have already breached existing air defense systems.

The official added that some of the systems available to the U.S. for countering drones had not yet been deployed in combat, as until now, the U.S. military had never faced such an extensive and intense drone threat.

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

However, among all the issues, the most immediate impact stems from the inadequate preparation by the U.S. government in assisting its citizens with evacuations.

Although at least two U.S. embassies—those in Lebanon and Israel—had begun evacuating staff and their families in the final days before the attack, most diplomatic missions in the region did not take similar measures until after the outbreak of hostilities.

It was not until Monday of this week that the State Department issued its first major warning to U.S. citizens, urging them to leave 14 countries in the region immediately. By then, purchasing departure tickets had become extremely difficult due to airspace closures causing widespread flight cancellations. Subsequently, the State Department expanded its alert and evacuation arrangements to include two additional countries: Cyprus and Pakistan.

Jeffrey Feltman, the former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon who in 2006 organized the evacuation of thousands of American citizens from Lebanon, stated: 'This is a gross dereliction of duty. While Iran does pose a threat, there was no imminent danger at the time. Yet Trump left tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Americans exposed to risk without advance planning for their evacuation.'

A State Council official familiar with the relevant procedures indicated that only a very small number of people within the State Council were actually aware of the war plans in advance. This may also be an important reason for the delayed issuance of evacuation orders and travel alerts. The official acknowledged that the current objective is to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible.

To this end, the State Department is increasing its personnel in Athens, and if the crisis escalates further, it may deploy staff to other locations. Current and former State Department officials stated that these additional personnel can assist arriving U.S. citizens by, for example, renewing their passports, providing loans to purchase air tickets, or even arranging temporary accommodation.

In a statement, the State Department noted that a 24/7 task force established on Saturday morning has provided safety and travel guidance to more than 6,500 U.S. citizens abroad. The State Department also pointed out that since January of this year, travel warnings for the region have already been issued to U.S. citizens, although such warnings are relatively common for an already volatile area.

Dylan Johnson, Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, stated on social platform X on Wednesday morning that 'more than 17,500 U.S. citizens have returned to the United States from the Middle East' since the outbreak of the war on February 28. However, this figure also seems to include many Americans who left without direct assistance from the State Department.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday that President Trump had informed regional leaders that 'we want them to help Americans return home.'

She stated, 'The administration has swiftly arranged charter flights, offered free flights, and booked commercial flight options. As time progresses and the mission advances, these flights will increase in frequency.' The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding whether the government is prepared for a further escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Overall, the Trump administration has reduced the number of individuals involved in the national security decision-making process and cut back on meetings that typically involve multiple departments and agencies. Apart from Rubio and a few of his senior aides, most of the State Department’s personnel remain unaware of many critical decisions. Rubio, who concurrently serves as the National Security Advisor, spends much of his time working at the White House.

However, several current and former U.S. diplomats noted that the prospect of the U.S. potentially engaging in a conflict in the Middle East is no secret.

In recent weeks, the government has significantly increased its military deployment in the region and issued warnings to Iran. Therefore, some believe that political appointees within the State Department, including those in the Bureau of Consular Affairs, should have started reducing embassy staff and advising U.S. citizens to leave the region days, or even weeks, ago.

The former State Department official stated, 'Given the escalating situation, there is no reason not to have prepared staff evacuation plans in advance, especially since the Department of Defense was well aware of Iran’s potential military responses. They could have also issued information about the unstable security situation in the region ahead of time.'

Democrats seized on the chaotic withdrawal to launch fierce attacks against the Trump administration. This represents a role reversal to some extent—Republicans had harshly criticized the Biden administration in 2021 during the final stages of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan over its handling of the evacuation of American citizens and Afghan allies.

Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware called for oversight hearings to investigate whether the State Department lacked adequate planning in assisting with the evacuation of U.S. citizens from the region.

Coons stated in a declaration, 'One of the core functions of our foreign policy is to ensure the safety of Americans. So far, the president’s response to this reckless incompetence has simply been ‘that’s how things are.’'

According to a letter obtained by POLITICO, Democratic members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged Rubio on Wednesday to 'take more concrete steps to assist U.S. citizens and embassy personnel currently in danger to evacuate.' The letter was led by Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois.

The lawmakers requested that Rubio explain by Friday how the administration decided which countries required evacuations and what criteria were used to determine whether to use chartered flights or military aircraft. They also asked what alternative evacuation plans the administration was considering given the frequent closure of airspace.

Meanwhile, several governors, including Gavin Newsom of California, Kathy Hochul of New York, and JB Pritzker of Illinois, have been in communication with State Department staff to understand the situation of Americans stranded in the region as they continue to receive panicked calls from residents.

According to a person familiar with the discussions, the governors’ staff also inquired about what measures the government is taking to bring Americans back home, including whether charter flights or military aircraft are being considered.

In a letter to Rubio on Wednesday, Pritzker wrote, 'American citizens are stranded overseas, and it is all of our responsibility to do everything possible to bring them home safely.'

Seek more market analysis?Ask Futubull AI!Accurate answers, comprehensive insights, seize key opportunities!

Editor/Melody

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment