Next week will usher in the China data Super week, including July import and export, inflation, consumption, investment Xiaobai Maimai Inc growth rate, and a series of big data will be released one after another.

The forecast data of Wind carding organization show that:

1. InflationCPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to continue to maintain the "two-word prefix", and rebounded for two consecutive months, PPI year-on-year growth rate negative growth trend or two consecutive months of slowdown.

2. ConsumptionThe year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods is expected to return to positive for the first time this year.

3. InvestmentThe cumulative growth rate of fixed investment may continue to narrow, and a positive return is imminent.

4. Financial aspectsThe M2 growth rate may be flat for four consecutive months, and the scale of credit will be appropriately narrowed.

On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's Purchasing managers Index (PMI) for July. China's PMI in July was 51.1%, up 0.2% from the previous month, and was above the tipping point for five consecutive months.

On August 7, the General Administration of Customs released data that, in dollar terms, China's foreign trade imports and exports in July totaled US $412.93 billion, up 3.4% from the same period last year, with a previous value of 1.5%. Of this total, exports were US $237.63 billion, up 7.2% from the same period last year, with a previous value of 0.5%; imports were US $175.3 billion, down 1.4% and 2.7%; the trade surplus was US $62.33 billion, with a previous value of US $46.42 billion. Export growth was much faster than expected.

On the inflation side, CPI continues to pick up

Wind comprehensive agency forecast data show that in July 2020 CPI growth may reach 2.6% year-on-year, is expected to continue to maintain the "2 prefix", and rebounded for two consecutive months. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 2.9%, and the minimum predicted value is 2.2%. The previous value is 2.5%.

According to the CICC Macro report, food prices have continued to rise since July. The peak tourism season entered in July. Affected by the epidemic, the increase in tourism prices this year may be lower than that in previous years, and the prices of the service industry may be weak. CPI growth is expected to be flat in July from a year earlier, at 2.5 per cent in June.

CITIC Zhu Jianfang team research and analysis, taking into account the same period last year base rose slightly, CPI food prices are expected to increase in July year-on-year basically the same as last month. On the non-food side, international oil prices rose slightly in July compared with the previous month, while some consumer demand of residents may further pick up, driving related prices higher. Taken together, CPI growth in July is expected to rise slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to about 2.7 per cent.

In addition, the agency forecasts PPI growth of-2.4% year-on-year in July, with negative growth slowing further. Among them, the maximum predicted value is-1.8%, and the minimum predicted value is-2.8%. The previous value is-3.0%.

According to CICC Macro report, the manufacturing PMI purchase price index rose to 58.1% in July, while the ex-factory price index fell slightly to 52.2%. PPI is expected to continue to rise month-on-month in July, narrowing its year-on-year decline to-2.4 per cent from June-3 per cent.

According to the research and analysis of Guotai Junan Hua Changchun team, considering the impact of the flood in July, the slope of PPI improvement may slow slightly, but the improvement trend remains the same, and it is expected to rise to-2.3% in July; and the momentum of the follow-up rebound is expected.

On the consumption side, it returned to positive growth for the first time this year

According to the forecast data of the Wind comprehensive organization, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods in July is expected to grow by 1.0% compared with the same period last year, and the monthly growth rate is expected to return to the same period for the first time this year. The maximum predicted value is 2.6%, and the minimum predicted value is-1.0%. The previous value is-1.8%.

According to the analysis of Guotai Junan's research newspaper, the club is expected to become a full member in July, with a growth rate of about 0.5%. According to the report:

(1) prices provide weak support to social zero as a whole. Due to the impact of floods, some food prices rose in July, but the range was relatively limited.

(2) in terms of physical consumption, the year-on-year growth rate of generalized passenger car sales rose to 4.7% in July (as of 26 th), a significant improvement from the June-6% growth rate, which provided support to the social zero in July.

(3) Food and beverage consumption is expected to rise to about-10% in July, an improvement of about 5 points compared with June and reaching about 90% of the level of food and beverage consumption in the normal period.

According to CITIC's analysis, on the whole, the factors dragging down consumption improved in July, considering that automobile consumption's contribution to overall consumption-0.8% last month will turn into a positive contribution, while the negative contribution of catering and petroleum products will lessen. among the rest of consumption, the consumption boom continues, and the rebound in optional consumption continues, and consumption is expected to continue to repair and achieve positive growth in July, with an estimated growth rate of about 2%.

In terms of investment, the cumulative growth rate is just around the corner.

According to the forecast data of the Wind comprehensive agency, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to July is expected to reach-1.5%. The maximum predicted value is-0.3% and the minimum predicted value is-2.5%. The previous value is-3.1%. According to the current growth rate, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment is just around the corner.

Minsheng Securities Jieyunliang team research and analysis, in July infrastructure investment is expected to usher in positive, real estate investment is supported by new construction, manufacturing investment differentiation is large, it is expected that the overall investment is still slightly negative growth.

CITIC research newspaper analysis, since July, the overall southern flood and precipitation is relatively heavy, or to a certain extent affected the performance of the overall construction industry, but the overall real estate investment and infrastructure investment has not changed. It is expected that July will remain at a relatively high level of 9-10% year-on-year growth in July.

From the perspective of manufacturing investment, the report believes that the repair slope in July will still be relatively flat, but the recovery trend has not changed, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate is expected to approach around 0%.

Taken together, it is expected that fixed asset investment in July may be more than 5%, driving the cumulative investment growth back to-1.8%, an improvement of about 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous month.

In terms of industrial value added, it rebounded for five consecutive months

Wind comprehensive agency forecasts show that industrial production is expected to grow by 5.3% year-on-year in July, rebounding for the fifth month in a row. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 6.0%, and the minimum predicted value is 4.6%. The previous value is 4.8%.

According to the CICC Macro Research report, from the high-frequency data, the coal consumption of key power plants since July is lower than that of the same period last year, but the increase in precipitation may accelerate the growth of hydropower. In addition, the low temperature this summer has reduced the electricity demand of residents and the three industries, and although the growth rate of electricity generation has slowed down, the growth rate of industrial production may not have slowed down. The manufacturing PMI production index rose to 54% in July from 53.9% in June, and the manufacturing sector still maintained its momentum of growth. We expect industrial production growth to accelerate to 5 per cent year-on-year in July from 4.8 per cent in June.

According to the Minsheng Securities Research report, there is no obvious seasonal decline in the high-frequency data of industrial production, while some downstream industries have replenishment behavior; the rebound in PMI production and overseas economic recovery both show that industrial production is operating at a high level, and the growth rate of industrial added value is expected to pick up slightly to about 5%.

In terms of finance, continue the steady trend.

Wind comprehensive agency forecast data show that M2 grew by 11.1% in July, with the maximum forecast value of 11.7% and the minimum forecast value of 10.9%. The previous value is 11.1%.

The agency predicts that the size of new RMB loans is expected to reach 1.1509 trillion yuan in July. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 1.3 trillion yuan and the minimum predicted value is 1 trillion yuan. The previous value is 1.81 trillion yuan.

In addition, institutions forecast a social financing scale of 1.8233 trillion yuan in July, with a maximum forecast of 2.6 trillion yuan and a minimum forecast of 1.3 trillion yuan. The previous value is 3.43 trillion yuan.

Guotai Junan research newspaper analysis:

(1) New credit: credit has declined slightly in a steady state, and it is expected that the new credit may reach 1.3 trillion, with a flat growth rate of 13.2%. The financing environment index of enterprises on the demand side has improved significantly, while the resident side has rebounded under the influence of the rebound in real estate sales.

(2) New social integration: it is estimated that the new social integration will be 1.9 trillion, and the growth rate of the balance of social integration may reach 13%. In July, the total amount of social integration also maintained a broad tone, with the margin slowing somewhat. Special treasury bonds will continue to boost social finance through the volume of relay local debt.

(3) M2 growth rate: as credit has flattened, but the overall tone of easing remains unchanged, M2 maintains a high growth rate of 11.1%. M1 rose slightly to 7% compared with the same period last year.

Tianfeng Securities Liao Zhiming team warned that with the economic recovery, wide credit policy fine-tuning, the pace of credit is expected to tighten.

According to the research and analysis of Huachuang Securities Zhou Guannan team, the scale of new credit in July may fall from the previous month, and the pace of investment has returned to normal; in terms of new social finance, the base factor may support the year-on-year growth rate to continue to rise, and the net financing of credit debt may fall back to a new low during the year; the issuance of new local bonds has stagnated; M2 year-on-year growth may fall back to around 10.7%.