It is recommended to subsequently focus on the normalized industry growth rate after the Spring Festival, as well as changes in terminal prices in grain-producing regions.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that the process of AI substitution is accelerating. As an important 'reservoir' for flexible employment, the express delivery industry is expected to see stabilization and recovery in last-mile fees driven by end-user rights protection policies. Per-unit prices are entering a recovery channel, and corporate profitability is gradually being released. The report expresses optimism about profit and market share concentration among leading companies under high-quality industry development, recommending YTO Express (600233.SH) and ZTO Express-W (02057), while keeping an eye on STO Express (002468.SZ), J&T Express-W (01519), and SF Holding (002352.SZ).
Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:
Strong resilience in industry demand, with express delivery companies accelerating resumption of work and production.
According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from December 29, 2025, to February 22, 2026, the cumulative volume of express deliveries reached 28.642 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with delivery volume reaching 29.369 billion pieces, up 6.8% year-on-year. The overall volume from January to February still maintained a steady growth trend. Thanks to the strong resilience demonstrated by the express delivery industry's demand, express delivery companies have accelerated resumption of work and production. From the fourth to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, 'Tongda Rabbit' successively announced resumption of operations via official WeChat accounts, canceling Spring Festival surcharges and fully upgrading services. Subsequent attention should be paid to normalized industry growth rates post-Spring Festival and changes in terminal prices in key producing areas.
End-user rights protection policies reshape cost and price structures.
The 2026 National Postal Work Conference emphasized 'penetrating' regulation, rectifying 'immediate penalties upon complaints,' and promoting the implementation of new social security policies, strongly safeguarding couriers' rights. Social security and standardized labor lock in cost baselines. Some express delivery enterprises, especially franchise outlets, previously avoided labor costs through underpayment or omission of social security contributions and extensive use of labor outsourcing. The implementation of the 2026 social security regulations will effectively bring hidden costs previously outside regulatory oversight into mandatory unified rigid costs for all players. Meanwhile, minimum delivery fee guidance establishes a rigid pivot for price transmission. Given the current convergence and slower optimization of transfer transportation costs among companies, delivery fees account for a significant proportion (for example, YTO Express’s per-unit collection and delivery service cost was 1.35 yuan in 2024, accounting for 65%), which to some extent determines the price of express delivery services.
Investment Analysis Opinion
The process of AI substitution is accelerating. As an important 'reservoir' for flexible employment, the express delivery industry is expected to see stabilization and recovery in last-mile fees driven by end-user rights protection policies. Per-unit prices are entering a recovery channel, and corporate profitability is gradually being released. The report expresses optimism about profit and market share concentration among leading companies under high-quality industry development, recommending YTO Express with continuously improving competitiveness and ZTO Express with expanding advantages, while keeping an eye on the earnings elasticity of STO Express. J&T Express’ business volume in Southeast Asia and emerging markets is growing rapidly, with promising prospects for sustained leadership and industry position. SF Holding has undergone thorough adjustments to its management structure and business lines, offering opportunities for bottom-line positioning.
Risk warnings: Intensified price competition beyond expectations; decreased demand for express delivery; major changes in industry structure; risks associated with rising labor costs.
