Citi issued a research report stating that, according to data from the National Ministry of Transport, the cumulative total of cross-regional personnel movements across society during the first seven days of the Lunar New Year holiday this year (February 15 to 21) reached 2.08 billion person-times, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, accelerating from the year-on-year growth rate of 6.8% in the first four days. The passenger volumes for railways, civil aviation, highways, and waterways increased by 9.9%, 7.8%, 9.2%, and 29.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. For the past three days alone (February 20 to 22), the total movement volume grew by 11.9% year-on-year.
The bank believes that the demand for returning home to reunite with family was relatively concentrated before the long holiday, and the recent recovery in passenger traffic reflects positive domestic travel demand for the remaining days of the Lunar New Year holiday. Moreover, the balance between short- and long-distance travel is favorable for online travel platforms, which is a positive signal. Citi maintains its 'Buy' ratings for Trip.com-S (09961.HK) and Tongcheng Travel (00780.HK). Its target price for Trip.com (TCOM.US) in the US stock market is $82, while the target price for Tongcheng is HK$28. Citi also noted that Trip.com will announce its Q4 results after the US stock market closes on Wednesday (the 25th), and expects its share price to remain subdued prior to the announcement.
