The new powers of car building have finally passed the darkest moment of 2019.

This year, NIO Inc. received a huge capital injection, Li Auto Inc. IPO and XPeng Inc. received a new round of financing of US $500m. Players who passed the qualifying round and entered the knockout stage not only pushed the new energy vehicle track to a new stage of development, but also rekindled the enthusiasm of the market for the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

In early July, there was a scene of investors scrambling to give away money in the capital markets:The fixed increase of nearly 20 billion yuan in the Ningde era, the leading domestic power battery company, attracted a frenzy of 38 investors, and in the end, only nine applied successfully.

Among them, Hillhouse Capital took the top spot with a subscription of 10 billion yuan, making it one of the top 10 shareholders of the Ningde era. Honda, a traditional car company, won a 1% stake in the Ningde era with 3.7 billion yuan in this increase.

In addition to the regular news of the Ningde era, there are a lot of recent news related to the keyword "power battery":

• NIO Inc. Automobile is planning to set up a battery asset management company on behalf of the new force of car building, and Ningde Times has clearly expressed its investment intention.

• Toyota Motor Corp has launched a new model that uses solid-state batteries to provide energy. According to the schedule, the car will be put into mass production in 2025.

• GAC announced that it has mastered the next generation power battery cell technology, applying new silicon anode materials to large power battery cells for the first time, so that the energy density of square cells reaches 275Wh/kg, and the range of electric vehicles exceeds 1000 km.

Whether from the perspective of capital or the attitude of enterprises, power batteries are highly expected.

But in fact, only about a quarter ago, the power market was still very deserted. Take the Ningde era as an example, its shares were still falling all the way in March this year, with the lowest point at 107.32 yuan, and the market capitalization fell by more than 100 billion yuan compared with the peak in February.

In the same month, Ningde era for the first time encountered shareholder reduction, the company's fifth largest shareholder China Bank No. 3, the sixth largest shareholder China Bank Power plans to reduce its holdings of nearly 6 billion yuan.

The situation has changed, and now the share price in the Ningde era has doubled.

Behind the changes in the power battery market is the epitome of changes in the new energy vehicle industry.

In the first quarter of this year, the market has not yet recovered from the subsidy decline, coupled with the overall weakness of the vehicle market caused by the epidemic, all enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry chain are depressed by the bleak vehicle market.

No one would have thought that only a quarter later, they would become the darlings of the market. With the introduction of the new policy of new energy subsidies, the decline of subsidies has been delayed, at the same time, the epidemic situation is under control, the new energy vehicle market has gradually recovered, NIO Inc., ideal, XPeng Inc. and other vehicle manufacturers have spread the financing news. As the heart of new energy vehicles, power battery has become another major competition point in addition to vehicle manufacturing.

The news of the fixed increase of 20 billion yuan in the Ningde era further emphasized the value of power batteries in the new energy vehicle industry, and then the frequent developments in the battery field of related enterprises all sent the same signal.The battle for new energy vehicle battery has become more and more fierce.

"can pigs really fly? What happens to pigs when the typhoon is gone? "

In 2017, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, sent such a letter to his employees entitled "when a typhoon is coming, can pigs really fly?" "E-mail. Only more than a year later, the originally hot new force of car-building was caught in the whirlpool of criticism and doubt, and the new energy vehicle market turned cold.

With the rotation of time and space, the power battery industry has stepped on the tuyere again today, so this time, who will take off and who will fall?

The pattern is initially determined.

At the beginning of the birth of new energy vehicles, the war over batteries has already begun.

In the domestic market, in the short history of the development of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry has completed a round of alternation between the old and the new. BYD, the veteran who once dominated the power battery, under the joint action of technology and business model, was replaced by the rising star Ningde era.

BYD is one of the earliest traditional car companies in China to invest in the research and development of new energy vehicles, relying on lithium iron phosphate battery technology to firmly occupy the power battery market in the initial stage.

Wang Chuanfu, its chairman, once believed that the core technology of new energy vehicles is power batteries, and that the core key to keeping BYD's new energy vehicles ahead in the market is to keep the extremely high technological and technological threshold of power batteries. therefore,For a long time, BYD closed the export channel of power batteries, which provided an opportunity for Ningde era.

Ningde Times was founded in 2011 and was born in New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (ATL), a battery supplier to Apple Inc's mobile phone. Ningde era won a big order at the beginning of its establishment, and reached a cooperation with BMW Group of Germany to become the only battery supplier of BMW Group in Greater China and the first domestic power battery company to successfully enter the supplier system of international car companies.

Unlike the lithium iron phosphate battery produced by BYD, Ningde era chose the ternary lithium battery with higher cost. In contrast, ternary lithium batteries are more popular with car companies because of their higher energy density and longer mileage for electric vehicles.

Driven by the endorsement of big-brand car companies, BYD's abandonment of battery export, and the technological advantages of ternary lithium batteries, Ningde era surpassed BYD in 2017 for the first time, becoming the company with the largest shipments in the global power battery market.

According to previous reports, the Golden Bay Hotel in Ningde City has stationed employees of major car companies for a period of time in order to cooperate with the Ningde era. Li Auto Inc. CEO Li Xiang once revealed:In the Ningde era, the chairmen of car companies stood in line to ask for batteries. "The popularity of the Ningde era in the domestic power battery market is evident.

BYD, which lost its top spot in the face of overtaking in the Ningde era, was worried that it separated its entire power battery business from the group and opened it to the outside world in 2017. But the times have been rewritten.

For the Ningde era, which is singing all the way, it is not easy to rest easy, although it has obvious advantages in the domestic market, but overseas, the Ningde era is facing more fierce competition.

In the overseas market, the main players who hold the share are South Korean company LG Chemical, Samsung SDI, Japanese company Panasonic and so on. Among them, LG Chemical has a strong momentum, with its market share soaring to 24.2% from 10.8% last year, overtaking Ningde era as the world's number one power battery manufacturer by market share.

LG Chemical has built factories in the United States and Europe, and in early April this year, it also received a loan of about 480 million euros (3.75 billion yuan) from the European Investment Bank, which will be fully invested in LG Chemical's power battery plant in Poland.The production capacity of the LG Poland plant will be further increased to provide a basis for it to continue to capture the global market.

According to media reports, LG Chemical currently has orders worth 150 trillion won (872.5 billion yuan) and will remain busy for the next five years, which will help it survive the crisis of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Another reason for supporting LG Chemical's market share beyond the Ningde era is that LG Chemical's partner car companies still performed well during the epidemic-especially Tesla, Inc..The Model 3 series produced by Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai Super Factory uses Panasonic and LG Chemical batteries, of which LG batteries are made by LG Chemical's factory in Nanjing, China.

The popularity of Model 3 in the world, especially in the domestic market, has not only led to the rapid growth of LG chemistry, but also led to a slight decline in the share of Ningde era in the domestic market.

According to news in July, LG Chemical is also considering making batteries for Tesla, Inc. at one of its factories in South Korea. However, Ningde Times also won the right to cooperate with Tesla, Inc. this year. In February, a document submitted by Ningde Times confirmed that it would become a supplier to Tesla, Inc.. At the Chengdu International Auto Show in July, Tesla, Inc. booth staff said"at present, domestic models have been terminated with Panasonic batteries, at this stage, Model 3 are still LG batteries, but in the near future, models equipped with Ningde era batteries will be offline one after another. "

Tesla, Inc., as a benchmark enterprise in the new energy vehicle industry, which battery manufacturer he chooses to cooperate with will greatly affect the pattern of the whole power battery market. however, Tesla, Inc., who is regarded as "popular", is trying another way of thinking-- to build his own battery production line while maintaining cooperative relations with mainstream battery manufacturers.

Tesla, Inc. 's large manufacturing base in Brandenburg, Germany, will produce Model 3 and Model Y models, as well as lithium batteries, according to official application documents. In addition, Tesla, Inc. has applied to the relevant departments in California to formally build a lithium battery factory inside the California factory, and the technology and experience of this production line will be transplanted to more of Tesla, Inc. 's own lithium battery factories in the future.Tesla, Inc. 's determination to make his own battery is very clear.

There are not a few car companies planning to do so. In March, Volvo opened an electric vehicle battery assembly line at its factory in Ghent, Belgium, and Chery also set up a 100 million yuan joint venture with Lulu New Energy to set up a PACK project company.

The logic of self-made batteries of car companies is not difficult to understand: as the core component of new energy vehicles, the supply capacity of power battery suppliers determines the production capacity of car companies. Therefore, car companies hope to strengthen control over the car industry chain. At the same time, eliminate the adverse effects of unstable production capacity of battery manufacturers.

Before that, there have been many examples of car companies reducing production or even stopping production due to insufficient supply from battery manufacturers.In February this year, Jaguar closed its I-PACE production line in Gratz, Austria, for a week because of a shortage of LG chemical batteries.

In the same month, Audi also said that production of the e-tron pure electric SUV would be temporarily suspended due to parts supply problems, which was also related to its power battery supplier LG Chemical, according to people familiar with the matter.

Car companies bowed into the game and became a new force in the undecided power battery market.

Compared with vehicle manufacturing, the power battery market shows a more obvious Matthew effect. With the growth of the new power of car-building and the traditional car companies have entered the field of new energy, there are numerous competitive brands of car companies, but the war of power batteries is mainly concentrated in the domestic market of BYD and Ningde era, as well as overseas markets of LG Chemical, Panasonic, Samsung SDI several leading enterprises.

What is not yet certain is that which of these companies will take the lead in the future, and how much uncertainty will be brought to this market by car companies' own battery production lines.

Technical competition

In the field of power batteries, the market is always loyal to technology.

The core criterion for car companies to choose partners has always been who can achieve lower battery costs and support longer mileage. Around this core, battery manufacturers continue to carry out technological iterations-Ningde era relied on ternary lithium batteries to end the dominance of BYD lithium iron phosphate batteries in the market.But only a few years later, the focus of the market returned to lithium iron phosphate batteries.

At the press conference in March, BYD launched the "Blade Battery" with a high profile, Wang Chuanfu declared:"the blade battery reflects BYD's determination to completely end the safety pain point of new energy vehicles, and is more capable of leading the global power battery technology back to the right path, completely erasing the word 'spontaneous combustion' from the dictionary of new energy vehicles. "

BYD's promising blade battery is still essentially a lithium iron phosphate battery, but unlike traditional block batteries, it uses a narrow blade shape to improve battery volume utilization to rival ternary lithium batteries in range. In fact, the blade batteryWhat's more, the production and processing technology of the battery has been improved, but there is no breakthrough in material and technology.

Ningde era is also changing its technological route. The power battery it supplies to Tesla, Inc. is not its main ternary lithium battery, but lithium iron phosphate battery. After the process improvement, lithium iron phosphate battery has made up for the deficiency in battery density, and its battery life can reach the level of ternary lithium battery.

Safety is one of the reasons why the market is turning to lithium iron phosphate battery. in addition, price is also a major consideration for car companies.

Ternary lithium battery generally refers to three chemical elements, nickel, cobalt and manganese. Among them, the cost of cobalt is particularly high. According to the Yangtze River non-ferrous metal net, the price of cobalt is between 27.6 and 279000 yuan / ton on July 28th. In addition, many African cobalt mines are driven by interests, such as child labor, imprisonment, illegal workers and so on, so cobalt is also known as "blood cobalt", which is also criticized by many people as the original crime of new energy vehicles.

As a result, car companies are trying to reduce the use of cobalt, and switching to lithium iron phosphate batteries is one way.Bear Stearns Research says that by using cheaper, smaller batteries from the Ningde era, the cost of the Tesla, Inc. Model 3 could fall by $600 to $1200 per car.

"Cobalt-free" has become a foreseeable future development trend of power batteries, and "cobalt-free" solutions may not be limited to lithium iron phosphate batteries.

In February this year, Reuters reported that Tesla, Inc. would use cobalt-free batteries in domestic models. Tesla, Inc. responded that"Cobalt-free does not necessarily mean lithium iron phosphate".However, due to the repeated postponement of Tesla, Inc. Super Battery Day due to the epidemic, Tesla, Inc. 's new action on the power battery has not been announced for a long time. According to the latest news, Tesla, Inc. Super Battery Day will be held on September 22, when Tesla, Inc. 's future battery route may be clarified.

However, before Tesla, Inc., Honeycomb Energy, an independent power battery company established by Great Wall Motor, announced the formal launch of cobalt-free batteries. Honeycomb Energy strips out cobalt from traditional nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries, and the cathode material is only nickel and manganese. Achieve the goal of zero cobalt content. The domestic electric MINI, produced by Beamlight, a joint venture between Great Wall and BMW in China, is expected to carry honeycomb cobalt-free batteries.

Cobalt-free batteries will greatly reduce the cost of new energy vehicles, but this is still not the best solution for power batteries. Many power battery manufacturers say that their future technology direction will beSolid state battery.

Different from the traditional lithium battery, the solid-state lithium battery replaces the electrolyte, electrolyte salt and diaphragm of the traditional lithium-ion battery with solid electrolyte, which has the characteristics of high safety, high energy density and simplified packaging.

Toyota is the first to achieve a breakthrough in solid-state battery technology. At the Tokyo Motor Show in October 2019, Toyota said it would install solid-state batteries by 2020.Toyota recently confirmed that the project has been completed on schedule and will mass-produce solid-state batteries by 2025.Toyota says the battery is more than twice as dense as a lithium battery, and there is no gas or liquid in the battery, so it is lighter and safer.

Front and back, BAIC New Energy and Guangzhou Auto have also announced breakthroughs in battery technology. BAIC New Energy has taken off the first sample car equipped with solid-state batteries. GAC's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, Aion LX Fuel Cell, has been officially unveiled, with a range of more than 650km under NEDC conditions. For comparison, the Model 3 standard endurance version, equipped with ternary lithium batteries provided by LG Chemistry, has a range of 445km.

The field of power battery has entered a competition with technological innovation as the core.

Once a subversive technological breakthrough occurs, it means a reshuffle of the market.The market pattern of power batteries is very likely to be subverted with future technological changes, and no manufacturer is absolutely safe-just as BYD, which once dominated the market, was quickly snubbed by the market because of differences in technological routes.

Under the scenery of the Ningde era

As the leader of the domestic power battery market, the trend of the Ningde era determines the direction of this track to a certain extent.

As mentioned earlier, power batteries are still undergoing rapid technological iterations, and in such a competition based on technological innovation, the advantages of the Ningde era at this stage do not have the ability to determine the final outcome. The reason why investors rush for Ningde era shares is more out of the importance of the power battery industry, and Ningde era is currently the most powerful player in the domestic market.

Driven by government forces, the Chinese market has become one of the fastest growing new energy vehicle markets with the largest gap, which will bring huge dividends in the Ningde era.

In addition, Ningde era is also working with car companies to find a new model of the power battery industry.

Recently, it was reported that NIO Inc. would set up a battery asset management company. Its founder Li Bin said in an interview with the media that "battery asset management is the biggest business in the electric vehicle industry." if a user rents batteries for 10, 000 yuan a year, when the number of electric cars in the Chinese market reaches 200 million in the future, the size of the battery rental market alone will reach 2 trillion yuan. It is reported that Ningde era has a clear investment intention.

At the stage when the battery technology has not made a breakthrough and the vehicle-pile ratio has not met the needs of users, the operation of the battery is an effective way to solve the mileage anxiety. Niu Xiaoyi, managing director of China Renaissance Holdings Ltd. New Economic Fund, a high-speed "capital detective": "at least in many areas, we have heard that both the government and enterprises think that the new infrastructure (refers to the construction of charging piles) will be a relatively long process. "therefore, battery asset management is promising, which may provide a new market space for the Ningde era.

But under the scenery, the future of the Ningde era is still full of uncertainty.

In the domestic market, BYD clung to the Ningde era. While introducing blade batteries, BYD also specifically conducted three groups of acupuncture tests on ternary lithium batteries, traditional lithium iron phosphate batteries, and blade batteries. The test results showed that ternary lithium batteries burned violently.

Later, a Weibo Corp user @ Xiaoyu Carp posted a video recording the user's piercing test of the Ningde era's 811 battery, which also exploded and burned violently, pushing the Ningde era to the forefront.

Later, Ningde Times independently conducted an acupuncture test to respond, and the results showed that the ternary lithium battery did not burn or explode. However, from the feedback of public opinion, the market still has a lot of doubts about the test results.

From the details of the cooperation with Tesla, Inc., we can see that the technical route of the Ningde era has also shifted to the lithium iron phosphate battery. In this route, how much advantage does the Ningde era have? in the future competition for cobalt-free batteries and solid batteries, whether there can be a breakthrough in the Ningde era is still full of uncertainties. After all, at the technical level, the starting line between the Ningde era and its competitors is not far away.

Overseas markets, LG Chemical, Panasonic, Samsung SDI are fierce rivals on the road of globalization in Ningde era.

Ningde era has become the company with the highest market share of power battery market in the world for three consecutive years since 2017, mainly due to the growth of domestic new energy vehicle market: in 2019, Ningde era achieved revenue of 45.788 billion yuan.Among them, overseas income is only 2 billion yuan, accounting for only 4.37%.

In order to open up the situation, Ningde era has also been actively promoting overseas layout, starting from 2018 to build a power battery research and development base in Europe, and increased investment in the project last year. According to public information, the first overseas plant of the Ningde era is located in Thuringia, Germany, with a production line that includes cells and modules, and is expected to achieve 14GWh battery capacity by 2022.

However, under the circumstances that the strong enemy is surrounded and the Ningde era does not have outstanding technological advantages, it is not easy to break through the tight encirclement in the Ningde era.

The cooperation with Tesla, Inc. is an opportunity for Ningde era to regain the top spot in the industry from LG Chemistry. Zeng Yuqun also said in an interview: "We do not rule out the possibility of supplying batteries to Tesla, Inc. 's Berlin factory. "

However, Tesla, Inc. 's performance is also very "cunning", it did not cut off cooperation with LG Chemistry, while steadily advancing the project of homemade batteries. This is a big threat to the future growth space of the Ningde era.

Jumping out of the market competition, only from the Ningde era itself, its stage of rapid growth has passed.

Since the first quarter of last year, revenue growth in Ningde era has been declining year-on-year, from a high of 168.93% to 23.45% in the fourth quarter, showing negative growth for the first time in the first quarter of this year.At the same time, the profitability of the Ningde era is also declining, with gross profit margin falling from 36.29% in 2017 to 25.09% in the first quarter of this year, and net profit margin falling from 20.97% to 10.02%.

The decline in gross profit margin is partly due to the overall weakness of the vehicle market. on the other hand, it also shows that as the industry becomes more mature and competition becomes more fierce, the days of "chairman of car companies queuing up" to cooperate with the Ningde era are over.Battery manufacturers are under bargaining pressure from car companies, and their profit margins have been compressed again and again.

With the further recognition and exploration of the market value of new energy vehicles, the competition that Ningde era needs to face will only be more fierce, and the future will be full of variables. The Ningde era, which replaced BYD, held hands with Tesla, Inc. and was robbed by investors, is far from the time to celebrate victory. For the entire power battery industry, the market space has been further opened at the same time, changes have been quietly brewing.