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流媒体服务的赛道上,康卡斯特(CMCSA.US)的Peacock会跑出什么成绩?

智通财经 ·  Aug 3, 2020 14:34

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Comcast (CMCSA.US) said in its second-quarter earnings report released last week that Peacock, a new streaming service launched by its NBC Global, has already registered more than 10 million households, and management expressed more views during the accompanying earnings call.

NBC Global CEO Jeff Shell said that not only were there more registrants than the company anticipated, but their viewing frequency and time was also much longer than the company anticipated.

Management also stated on Investors Day in January that it is expected to have 30 million to 35 million active users by 2024. Although the number of registrants may not necessarily be converted into monthly active accounts, all indicators have exceeded the company's expectations.

Peacock is off to a good start

Comcast's expectations for Peacock are very moderate, especially given the expectations of rivals Disney (DIS.US) and AT&T (T.US) for their respective streaming services. Based on predictions of Peacock's average revenue per account, Comcast expects these users to be relatively low in engagement.

However, Peacock still seems to have had a better start than AT&T's HBO Max, which launched in May, about two weeks earlier than Peacock. More than a month later, HBO Max had only 4.1 million registrations, even though the service was free for around 26.5 million users. One of the major hurdles facing HBO Max is AT&T's failure to reach an agreement with Roku (ROKU.US) or Amazon (AMZN.US) to provide this service on Roku or Fire TV broadcasting devices, but Peacock is facing the same challenge.

Comcast's early results showed that Peacock offered good value to consumers. The company heavily relied on its free products in marketing campaigns prior to Peacock's launch. Free ad-supported streaming services are gaining momentum as consumers seek new forms of entertainment during public health events while also facing budget constraints.

There are still many questions yet to be answered

Management pointed out that it is still too early to change the forecast for streaming services. Management said in January that in the first two years of operating Peacock, the company would lose about $2 billion on the streaming service. Jeff Shell also said he doesn't expect any changes in the next two years.

Similarly, Disney declined to update its outlook on Disney+ and its streaming business, despite the service's strong performance in the first six months of launch. Media giants like Disney or Comcast are also unable to make good predictions based on relatively little data.

Compared to Disney or AT&T user data, Peacock's data is scarce and less likely to be disclosed to the public. I don't know if these 10 million registered users all have free accounts, or if they include some paid accounts. I also don't know how much Comcast earns per account. How many accounts are also subscribed to Comcast's pay-TV or internet service? How is the retention of these services compared to users who haven't signed up for Peacock?

Investors now have no idea how effective the strategic benefits Comcast hopes to obtain from Peacock will be; they only know that the number of registrations and participation is better than expected by management.

For investors, there are still many questions that need to be answered, and management may not have all of them. Comcast CFO Mike Cavanaugh said that some user information will begin to be revealed in due course. Despite the company's optimism about Peacock, it still needs to prove it's a valuable asset to Comcast.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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