Top News Highlights
The US Supreme Court announced a new round of rulings on February 20, which may reveal the fate of Trump's tariffs.
The US Supreme Court has set February 20 as the day to release its ruling opinions, advancing the timeline for a potential decision on President Trump’s comprehensive tariff regime. Traders on the prediction market Polymarket believe there is only a 28% probability that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariff policy. An unfavorable ruling in this case could trigger over $130 billion in tariff refunds and reshape US trade policy.
Wang Yi Meets with US Secretary of State Rubio
Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with US Secretary of State Rubio on the 13th during his attendance at the Munich Security Conference.
Wang Yi stated that President **** and President Trump have provided strategic guidance for the development of China-US relations. We must jointly implement the important consensuses reached by the two heads of state, making 2026 a year where China and the US move towards mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. Dialogue is better than confrontation, cooperation is better than conflict, and win-win outcomes are better than zero-sum games for China-US relations. As long as we uphold an attitude of equality, respect, and reciprocity, both sides can find ways to address each other’s concerns and properly manage differences. Both parties should work together to continuously expand the list of cooperative areas while compressing the list of issues, guiding China-US relations onto a stable, healthy, and sustainable development track, and sending more positive signals to the world.
Both sides agreed that the meeting was positive and constructive. They concurred to jointly implement the important consensuses reached by the two heads of state, play a coordinating role through political and diplomatic channels, support high-level interactions between the two countries, strengthen dialogue and cooperation in various fields, and promote the stable development of China-US relations.
Bessent: Inflation is expected to return to 2% by 2026, with potential 'narrowing' room for tariff policies.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently delivered a clear signal regarding the prospects of the US economy and the direction of monetary policy. He projected that the US inflation rate could return to the 2% target level by 2026 and hinted at possible adjustments to the current tariff policy. These statements provide key guidance for the market to understand the economic agenda of Trump's second term.
In an interview with CNBC, Bessent pointed out that inflationary pressures are gradually easing as supply chain bottlenecks ease and energy costs decline. He emphasized that the Treasury Department will closely coordinate with the Federal Reserve to ensure price stability and did not rule out the possibility of further curbing imported inflation by optimizing the tariff structure. Although no specific details were disclosed, he mentioned that tariff exemptions for certain allies or specific goods might be one of the future policy options, which the market interpreted as a potential narrowing of the scope of tariff measures.
Bridgewater Q4 Significantly Increases Holdings in NVIDIA and Gold Stocks
On Friday Eastern Time, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, disclosed its latest 13F stock portfolio report. According to the report, in the fourth quarter ended December 31 of last year, Bridgewater increased its holdings in $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ and other AI-focused stocks, and also took advantage of the rise in gold prices to increase its holdings in Newmont Corporation, one of the world’s largest gold producers. The report shows that Bridgewater’s total portfolio value in the fourth quarter reached $27.4 billion, compared to $25.5 billion in the previous quarter. In the third quarter, Bridgewater added 191 new positions, increased holdings in 450 positions, reduced holdings in 395 positions, and completely divested 165 positions. Among these, Bridgewater’s top ten holdings accounted for 36.33% of the total portfolio value.
A new round of US-Iran negotiations and US-Russia-Ukraine talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 17th.
According to a Reuters report on the 13th, a new round of U.S.-Iran talks and U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 17th. Reuters cited sources as saying that the U.S. delegation, including President Trump’s envoy Witkov and son-in-law Kushner, will start negotiations with Iranian representatives on the morning of the 17th, with Oman acting as a mediator for the discussions. In the afternoon of the same day, the U.S. delegation will hold a trilateral meeting with representatives from Russia and Ukraine. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said earlier on the 13th that a new round of Russia-U.S.-Ukraine talks would take place in Geneva on the 17th-18th, with the Russian delegation led by Presidential Aide Mezhinsky. (Xinhua News Agency)
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 90.2%.
According to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 9.8%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 90.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by April is 26.4%, maintaining interest rates unchanged is 71.5%, and cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.0%. By June, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 51.8%.
U.S. Stock Market Recap
The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with most popular technology stocks declining.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1% but down 1.23% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.22%, bringing its weekly loss to 2.1%; and the S&P 500 Index edging up 0.05%, ending the week down 1.39%, marking its worst weekly performance since November last year.
Most popular tech stocks declined, with NVIDIA and Apple falling more than 2%, while Google, Meta, and Broadcom dropped over 1%. Sector-wise, cryptocurrency-related stocks and precious metals performed strongly, with Coinbase surging over 16%, Coeur Mining climbing more than 7%, Pan American Silver gaining over 6%, HUT8 rising over 5%, and Royal Gold and Gold Fields advancing more than 4%. The gaming and cruise sectors lagged behind, with Norwegian Cruise Line plunging over 7%, Penn National Gaming dropping more than 5%, and Carnival Corporation declining over 2%.
Applied Materials rose 8.08% after the company forecasted revenue of approximately $7.65 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
Despite $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 fell slightly by 2% year-over-year to $7.01 billion, but the decline was much smaller than the company's previous expectations and significantly outperformed Wall Street analysts' consensus estimate of around $6.86 billion. Earnings per share under Non-GAAP standards for the first quarter were $2.38, surpassing the average Wall Street expectation of $2.21.
Applied Materials forecasts that revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 will be approximately $7.65 billion, with a fluctuation range of about $500 million. In contrast, Wall Street analysts’ average revenue forecast for Applied Materials for this quarter (ending in April this year) is $7.03 billion. Reportedly, as capacity expansions for 3nm and below advanced process AI chips, CoWoS/3D advanced packaging, and DRAM/NAND memory chips have accelerated significantly, analysts have continuously raised their revenue expectations for Applied Materials since the beginning of this year.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks in the U.S. market staged a strong rebound, with Coinbase soaring 16.46%, although it recorded a weekly decline for the fourth consecutive week.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks in the U.S. market made a strong comeback on Friday. $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Surging over 16%, although the stock fell 0.48% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline.
AI application stock AppLovin gained 6.44% as CEO Adam Foroughi firmly responded that market sentiment was disconnected from reality.
$Applovin (APP.US)$ Strong performance in the fourth quarter of last year, with revenue growing 66% year-over-year to $1.66 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.6 billion; adjusted EBITDA increasing 82% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 84%; earnings per share reaching $3.24, exceeding the analyst consensus of $2.95. Looking ahead to the first quarter of this year, the company expects revenue to range between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, maintaining an EBITDA margin at a high level of 84%.
AppLovin co-founder and CEO Adam Foroughi strongly responded that market sentiment is disconnected from reality, emphasizing that the content explosion driven by AI will make the company’s traffic distribution capabilities even scarcer. He also pointed out that increased bidding density has instead boosted platform revenue.
Morgan Stanley maintained an 'Overweight' rating but lowered its target price from $800 to $720.
Top 20 turnover
Hong Kong Market Outlook
On Friday, February 13, southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 20.219 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks today.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$TENCENT (00700.HK)$were respectively subject to net purchases of HKD 3.676 billion, HKD 2.299 billion, and HKD 2.263 billion;
$POP MART (09992.HK)$、$YOFC (06869.HK)$、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$were respectively subject to net sales of HKD 170 million, HKD 149 million, and HKD 144 million.
The State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with platform enterprises including Alibaba, Douyin, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, and Taobao Flash Purchase.
According to an announcement by the State Administration for Market Regulation on February 13, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ , Douyin, $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ 、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ , Taobao Flash Purchase, and other platform enterprises were summoned by the regulator. These platforms were urged to strictly comply with relevant laws such as the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, the Consumer Rights Protection Law of the People's Republic of China, and the E-Commerce Law of the People's Republic of China. They were instructed to proactively assume their responsibilities as main entities and further standardize promotional activities. The platforms were reminded to eliminate all forms of 'internally competitive' behavior, jointly maintain a fair competitive market environment, and promote innovation and healthy development within the platform economy.
Meituan forecasts a loss exceeding RMB 23 billion in 2025, with continued losses expected in the first quarter.
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ issued a profit warning: It is expected that the fiscal year 2025 will shift from profit to loss, recording a net loss of approximately RMB 23.3 billion to RMB 24.3 billion for the full year. Meituan’s most profitable 'Core Local Commerce' division saw a collapse in profits: This division reported an operating profit of approximately RMB 52.415 billion in fiscal year 2024 but is projected to incur an operating loss of approximately RMB 6.8 billion to RMB 7 billion in fiscal year 2025.
ByteDance's chip team will begin large-scale recruitment, with multiple cloud-based chips already in mass production and deployment.
According to sources familiar with the matter, ByteDance's chip R&D team will begin large-scale recruitment. The source revealed that ByteDance's chip R&D team is currently focused on the chip design phase, conducting dedicated hardware customization and optimization around its own business operations, and developing multiple complex chips using advanced semiconductor processes for cloud scenarios to enhance performance and reduce computing costs. 'Currently, ByteDance’s chip team has achieved multiple successful tape-outs in one version, with several early-stage projects entering the mass production deployment phase, covering multiple mainstream advanced process nodes. The overall R&D and implementation progress is proceeding steadily,' the source said. ByteDance did not respond to the matter.
DouBao Large Model 2.0 Officially Released
DouBao Large Model officially enters version 2.0 today. DouBao 2.0 (Doubao-Seed-2.0) has been systematically optimized to meet the requirements of large-scale production environments. The DouBao 2.0 series includes three general Agent models—Pro, Lite, Mini—and a Code model, flexibly adapting to various business scenarios: DouBao 2.0 Pro targets deep reasoning and long-chain task execution scenarios, fully comparable to GPT 5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro; 2.0 Lite balances performance and cost, with comprehensive capabilities surpassing the previous main model, DouBao 1.8; 2.0 Mini is designed for low-latency, high-concurrency, and cost-sensitive scenarios; the Code version (Doubao-Seed-2.0-Code) is specifically tailored for programming scenarios and performs better when combined with TRAE.
Focus today
Keywords: BHP Group Ltd earnings report, half-day trading in Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stock market closed
In terms of financial events, the first India AI Summit will be held in New Delhi from February 15 to 20, with global tech leaders such as Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, and Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, confirmed to attend.
In terms of performance, $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Market closure times: Half-day session for Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stock market closed for Presidents' Day.
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