In January, retail sales of passenger vehicles declined on a month-over-month basis; however, due to an increase in exports, manufacturers' sales growth was relatively strong in January.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Cui Dongshu published an article stating that the auto market maintains strong growth driven by national pro-consumption policies. The overall trend of the national auto market in 2025 remains robust, with significant recovery in the truck and bus markets. Compared to the policy support in 2025, this year’s policy contraction has led to a month-on-month decline in passenger vehicle retail sales in January. However, due to increased exports, manufacturers’ sales growth was relatively good in January. New energy vehicles (NEVs) showed stable performance primarily because of the continued strength of the export market, though industry pressures remain substantial. In 2026, the commercial vehicle market will experience structural growth driven by equipment renewal subsidies, accelerating electrification in logistics transportation, which boosts the commercial vehicle sector significantly.
1. Divergence in Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Trends in 2026
In recent years, the divergence between passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles has become evident, with commercial vehicles weakening while passenger vehicle consumption improves. In 2025, the market benefited from policy factors, with passenger vehicle growth reaching a favorable rate of 9%. Commercial vehicles, driven by electrification, saw stronger performance compared to last year, particularly in the minibus segment achieving significant growth. Trade-in policies have effectively boosted passenger vehicle demand, especially during the initial phase of implementation. Recently, most subsidies have been suspended, and positive progress has been made in addressing “internal competition” through comprehensive industry governance. Overall, the auto market growth has slowed.
2. Cooling of the Auto Market in 2026
The total auto sales volume in 2025 reached 34.392 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. In January 2026, total auto sales were 2.35 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The truck market remained exceptionally strong, while the passenger vehicle and bus markets performed slightly weaker.
3. Significant Divergence in Performance Among Leading Automakers
Comparing the chart from 2021 above, certain automakers showed strong performance in 2022, but there was significant divergence in industry growth rates. The pandemic at the beginning of 2022 placed considerable pressure on traditional automakers, compounded by the impact of the new energy transition. State-owned conglomerates performed unevenly, with GAC and Chery demonstrating excellent results—Chery performing well in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments. Northern automakers such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC all faced challenges.
At the beginning of 2023, the promotion of new energy vehicles contributed to the divergence in the auto market trends. The three major state-owned enterprises showed divergent performances, with some falling behind. BYD and other new energy companies performed well, while Chery and Tesla exhibited relatively strong results this year. Second-tier automakers showed mixed performances, as the transition between old and new drivers and the sustained losses in new energy vehicles caused significant downturns among small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in self-owned brands.
The structure of auto groups underwent comprehensive changes in 2024. Due to booming passenger vehicle sales and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely Auto, and Dongfeng performed exceptionally well, while SAIC continued to experience a sharp decline. Growth rates for NEV makers BYD and Tesla diverged significantly.
The manufacturer landscape in the auto market underwent dramatic shifts, with sharp differentiation in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises as the main drivers of the industry, with Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining high growth levels.
Achieving a strong start to the year has become a key focus for all companies. SAIC and Dongfeng performed strongly in January this year, with improved growth rates.
The manufacturer landscape in the auto market remained relatively stable in 2025, with domestic brands significantly enhancing their positions. Overall, January sales weakened month-on-month as manufacturers prepared for a strong start to the new year. Some manufacturers showed lower performance compared to December, but Geely, Dongfeng, and SAIC's passenger vehicle divisions strengthened year-on-year, while other manufacturers experienced significant adjustments in January sales.
4. Production and Sales Trends of Narrowly Defined Passenger Vehicle Enterprises
The total sales volume of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in 2025 is projected at 29.55 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. In January 2026, the total sales volume of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 1.97 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 6%. In recent years, technological innovations in new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the competitiveness of new models have continued to grow, whereas the introduction of new fuel vehicle models has been sluggish. Prior to the Spring Festival of 2026, NEVs entered an adjustment phase, with dealers expressing weak confidence, thereby dampening the growth rate.
In January 2026, domestic automakers comprehensively outperformed others in the passenger vehicle market. The performance of major manufacturers was generally weak, but domestic brands demonstrated exceptional strength, while joint ventures showed weaker trends for January. Geely Auto took the lead, BYD ranked second, and Chery maintained third place, with the top three companies becoming increasingly close in scale. Joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen exhibited relatively stable performances.
The main camp of passenger vehicle manufacturers rapidly differentiated, with manufacturers focused on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance. Domestic brands exhibited particularly evident differentiation.
Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle enterprises
In January 2026, the total sales volume of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers amounted to 870,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2%. In the first half of 2025, factors such as scrappage subsidies, manufacturer price cuts, and new model launches contributed to solid growth, while export demand drove expansion in the second half. However, the overall trend in 2026 faced significant downward pressure due to policy adjustments.
The competitive landscape among NEV manufacturers remained relatively stable in 2025, with leading firms experiencing rapid growth while secondary players gradually accelerated their expansion. In January, Geely, Tesla, Seres, and Xiaomi demonstrated robust performance. The national automobile market underwent pronounced fragmentation, with substantial variations in regional and manufacturer growth rates.
6. Production and Sales Trends of Traditional Power Passenger Vehicles
In 2023, the sales volume of traditional fuel-powered narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 16.66 million units, remaining largely flat compared to the same period in 2022. In 2024, the sales volume of traditional narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 14.95 million units, marking a year-on-year decrease of 10%. In 2025, the sales volume stood at 14.22 million units, declining by 5% year-on-year, while in January 2026, it dropped further to 1.1 million units, decreasing by 9%, indicating persistently weak market dynamics.
The dominance of joint venture enterprises in conventional power passenger vehicles is gradually shifting toward stronger domestic players. Brands like Chery, Geely, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, Great Wall, and the 'Big Three' joint ventures continue to maintain strong positions. FAW-Volkswagen remains the absolute leader among joint ventures, while domestic brands’ advantages in fuel-powered vehicles remain less prominent compared to their joint venture counterparts, whose technical expertise in fuel vehicles remains formidable.
7. Production and Sales Classification Trends of Bus Manufacturers
In 2023, the total annual bus sales volume across manufacturers reached 750,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3%. In 2024, the total bus sales volume reached 800,000 units, growing by 6% cumulatively. In 2025, total bus sales volume expanded to 920,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 15%. However, in January 2026, the total bus sales volume was 55,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6%, with exports and new energy logistics vehicles providing only moderate support.
The trend for buses in 2026 remained relatively stable, with leading manufacturers demonstrating robust sales figures, primarily driven by fluctuations in demand for logistics-oriented light commercial vehicles and minivans. In 2025, Wuling, Changan, and Maxus performed well in the commercial vehicle segment, while Yutong and Changan experienced significant month-on-month declines in January.
8. Production and Sales Classification Trends of Truck Manufacturers
In 2023, the total annual truck sales volume across manufacturers amounted to 3.54 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19%. In 2024, the total truck sales volume reached 3.35 million units, reflecting a cumulative decline of 3%. In 2025, truck sales volume grew to 3.72 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%. In January 2026, truck sales volume reached 320,000 units, surging by 28% year-on-year, forming a remarkably strong growth momentum.
The differentiation among major truck manufacturers in January 2026 was quite pronounced, with leading companies performing strongly. Wuling and Dongfeng saw a surge in sales compared to January of the previous year, while Shanqi, Jianghuai, and Jiangling's light trucks performed well on a year-over-year basis.
Heavy-duty trucks experienced a significant increase in January 2026, with electric heavy-duty trucks showing particularly strong performance. FAW, Shanqi, and Sinotruk reported robust growth, while the overall industry structure remained relatively stable.
