Source: China Finance Online Co Ltd website
Source: China International Capital Corporation
In June, automobile production and sales completed 2.325 million and 2.3 million respectively, up 6.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively from the previous month, and 22.5 per cent and 11.6 per cent respectively over the same period last year. Among them, the production and sales of generalized passenger vehicles completed 1.798 million and 1.764 million respectively, an increase of 8.3% and 5.4% respectively over the previous month, and an increase of 12.2% and 1.8% respectively over the same period last year. The production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 527000 and 536000 respectively, with output down 0.1% from the previous month, and sales increased by 3.1% from the previous month, up 77.9% and 63.1% respectively from the same period last year.We will explain it in detail in this article.Where is the car market worth paying attention to in June?
Observation on domestic passenger car Market
Passenger cars: production and sales are rising month-on-month.Among them, SUV sales exceeded cars in June, which played an obvious pulling role; luxury car retail sales were + 9% month-on-month and + 27% year-on-year, which continued to be strong. Joint venture brands were basically the same as the industry, and the penetration rate of independent brands dropped to a low of 32%. But there is a big divergence between brands. Inventory, June manufacturers inventory month-on-month compared with + 40,000 vehicles, channel inventory month-on-month slight increase. At the same time, the overall discount of the industry expanded in June, it is recommended to pay close attention to the follow-up terminal price trend. We believe that the performance of industry sales in June is in line with our previous expectations, entering the off-season in the third quarter, and we expect a slight decline in month-on-month sales in July, compared with a low base last year, so the year-on-year performance is expected to become positive. More noteworthy is the performance in August and September. If market demand can continue to pick up and show positive month-on-month growth, it is expected to continue to catalyse market sentiment.
Chart: monthly output of passenger cars, wholesale and retail sales
Source: Federation of passengersChina International Capital CorporationResearch department
Chart: monthly production of passenger cars, year-on-year growth rate of wholesale and retail sales
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Observation on domestic Commercial vehicle Market
Commercial vehicles: production and sales remain high.Trucks are still the main driving force for the high growth of commercial vehicles compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sales of heavy trucks completed 169000, up 63.3% from the same period last year, and the sales of light trucks completed 215000, up 43.4% from the same period last year. Both types of models set record highs in May. We have raised the growth rate of heavy truck industry sales in July to about 90% year on year, and factors such as branch line overload in July are expected to continue to drive the demand for logistics heavy trucks and engineering heavy trucks to "blossom in an all-round way". We are optimistic about 2H20 heavy truck sales and believe that the annual heavy truck sales are expected to exceed 1.35 million.
Chart: monthly sales of commercial vehicles
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: monthly sales of heavy trucks
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Observation on the Market of New Energy vehicles
New energy vehicles: at a high base, the performance is weak.In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 102000 and 104000 respectively, down 25.0% and 33.1% respectively from the same period last year. Compared with the previous month, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, but affected by the high base before the subsidy retreat last year, there was a big decline compared with the same period last year. With the low base and the promotion of new energy vehicles in the countryside in the second half of the year, we expect sales growth to stabilize in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, JuneTeslaChina sells 15000 vehicles, with pure electric passenger cars accounting for 23% of the market.
Chart: sales growth of new energy vehicles
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Observation of Global Automobile Market
Global car market: Europe, the United States and Japan gradually out of the trough, South Korea tax sales increased greatly.The global car market continued to be affected by the epidemic in June, but sales growth has been repaired. European passenger car sales were 1.181 million, year-on-year-24.0%, a decrease of 22ppt compared with the same period last year; US passenger car sales were 1.111 million, year-on-year-26.4%, down by 4ppt; and Japanese passenger car sales were 230000,-23.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 23ppt. Affected by the consumption tax concession, the South Korean market sold 178000 passenger cars in June, a year-on-year high growth of + 43.6 per cent.
Chart: sales performance in key countries
Source: Marklines, China International Capital Corporation Research Department Note: pickups in the US market are included in the passenger car classification
Risk
The subsequent car sales fell short of expectations, and the overseas epidemic repeatedly affected the production and marketing of the industrial chain.