Macquarie raises ZTO Express' US stock target price from $18.4, citing continued improvement in unit economics.

Gelonghui, February 9 | Macquarie issued a research report stating that ZTO Express delivered strong performance in the fourth quarter of last year, leading growth among peers. According to its preliminary results, parcel volume increased by 9% year-over-year; revenue growth ranged between 8% and 19% year-over-year, with gross margin estimated at 23% to 28%. The firm believes that, within the logistics industry’s 'anti-internal competition' policy environment, combined with ZTO’s high-quality and cost-effective value proposition, the group is well-positioned to capture shifts in customer price preferences. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm forecasts that ZTO's total parcel volume will grow by 8% annually, compared to an expected industry growth rate of 7%; driven by industry pricing recovery and favorable developments in its key customer and return retail strategies, the average unit price is projected to increase by 2 fen year-over-year to 1.28 yuan. It also believes that following a bottoming out last year, unit economics should continue to improve due to economies of scale and rising average unit prices. The firm raised its target price for ZTO’s US shares from $18.4 to $26.6 and upgraded its rating to 'Outperform'.