The market mistakenly believes that quantum computing is a 'next-decade issue,' but Barclays warns that the industry will reach a decisive moment of 'quantum advantage' by 2026/27.
More critically, quantum computing will not replace classical computing CPUs and GPUs; rather, due to its extremely high demand for 'error correction,' every quantum computer will require a massive amount of GPUs as auxiliary support.
Quantum technology could create an additional market worth over $100 billion for chip giants like NVIDIA.
Investors generally believe that quantum computing remains in the realm of science fiction, but Barclays' latest research report points out that this “it’s too early” misconception might cause you to miss the most critical trend in the next 12 months.
According to TradingView News, the Barclays analyst team has just released a research report titled 'Quantum Computing: Correcting Investors’ Biggest Misconceptions.'
The core logic of the report is straightforward: Wall Street underestimates the speed of technological breakthroughs while fundamentally misunderstanding the relationship between quantum and classical computing power (e.g., NVIDIA). Barclays believes we are on the eve of transitioning from a 'laboratory toy' to a 'commercial powerhouse.'
Misconception One: Quantum Computing is 'Too Early'
Barclays’ first correction is this: don’t treat quantum computing as a purely long-term theme that will only bear fruit 'a decade from now.'
The current market consensus is that fully operational 'fault-tolerant quantum computing' (FTQC) will not arrive until after 2030. This is correct, but Barclays warns investors not to overlook the critical 'turning point' in between.
Barclays indicates that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be a watershed moment for the industry, when 'quantum advantage' will be achieved.
More importantly, 'how do we define advantage?' Barclays argues that 'advantage is proven only when systems target 100 logical qubits.' It also cautions that any 'claim of advantage' must be backed by 'strong technical data,' otherwise it resembles marketing rather than a pivotal moment.
We expect major announcements within the next 12 months... When systems can stably operate with 100 logical qubits, quantum advantage will be proven.
This is akin to the Wright brothers' first flight—it may not yet carry passengers (commercialization), but it proves that airplanes outperform carriages (quantum advantage). Once this signal emerges, the valuation logic of capital markets will be instantly reshaped.
Misconception Two: Quantum is here to replace classical computing, and NVIDIA is doomed?
This represents the largest cognitive bias in the market. Research reports indicate that many people believe quantum computers are so powerful that they will replace current CPUs and GPUs. Barclays refutes this notion, arguing that it is not a relationship of substitution but rather one of being the 'most powerful assistant.'
Quantum computers will not replace classical computers as general-purpose machines but will complement them.
The core logic behind this lies in 'error correction': Qubits are extremely fragile and unstable (prone to errors). To ensure their proper functioning, an extraordinarily robust classical computing system is required to monitor and correct them in real time.
Barclays' research uncovered a striking data correlation:
For every logical qubit, there may be a need for one GPU to handle error correction and control.
What does this imply? If you build a quantum computer with 1,000 logical qubits, you would need to purchase between 500 and 2,000 GPUs to support it.
This is no longer competition but symbiosis. The more powerful quantum computers become, the greater the explosive demand for$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$chips will be. Barclays estimates that this 'complementary demand,' under a blue-sky scenario, will bring an incremental market value exceeding $100 billion to the classical computing market by 2040.
Misconception Three: All quantum hardware is similar, like buying a lottery ticket?
The truth about this misconception is that the field has already diverged, with clear advantages and disadvantages.
The route of quantum hardware is not singular. Barclays categorizes the mainstream physical qubit pathways into electronic (superconducting, electron spin), atomic (trapped ions, neutral atoms), and photonic, pointing out that their respective advantages and disadvantages stem from trade-offs among speed, precision, coherence time, external infrastructure (cryogenic, laser, vacuum), and scalability.
Through its 'Quantum Benchmarking Model,' Barclays has highlighted key areas in the currently chaotic hardware race:
The current 'King of Precision' — Trapped Ions: Representative companies include Quantinuum and IonQ. Their advantages lie in high accuracy, low error rates, and relatively mature technology.
The future 'Mass Production Dark Horse' — Silicon Spin: This is the direction Intel is pursuing. Although its current performance is average, it can leverage existing semiconductor factories for production, and once breakthroughs occur, it will be the easiest to scale up for mass production.
Winning by numbers — Neutral Atoms: They have a natural advantage in stacking large numbers of qubits.
Barclays concluded:
"Our tests indicate that trapped ions are currently in the lead... but the scalability of silicon spin deserves long-term attention."
Misconception Four: Will cryptographic systems be cracked?
Regarding the panic over 'quantum computers cracking banking passwords tomorrow,' Barclays dismissed the notion outright: Overthinking it; computational power is still insufficient.
To crack current RSA encryption, thousands of perfect logical qubits are required, whereas the most advanced devices humanity has today only support dozens. Barclays stated frankly:
Quantum computers are not yet powerful enough... to the extent that modern encryption standards are under threat.
Misconception Five: Quantum-related investment opportunities are 'limited to only two or three companies.'
The market often perceives investment targets in this field as scarce, limited to a few well-known companies. However, Barclays has mapped out the entire industry chain, identifying 45 publicly listed companies and over 80 private enterprises. These are mainly distributed across four major areas:
1) Quantum processors (system sales or QCaaS cloud access)
2) Quantum supply chain (cryogenics, lasers/optics, control electronics, materials, etc.)
3) Quantum chip design and manufacturing (with overlaps in traditional semiconductor manufacturing)
4) Ecosystem enablers (cloud, data center infrastructure, quantum simulators, quantum-classical integration: GPU/CPU/server, etc.)
The framework provided in the report leans more toward 'risk pricing': in the short term, higher revenue exposure often corresponds to higher technological risk. It categorizes technological risk broadly into high (single-route dependency), medium (dependence on a few routes), and low (route-independent) based on whether the business model is tied to a single route.
This also explains why quantum narratives tend to focus narrowly on 'pure quantum hardware stocks': they have the most direct revenue exposure but also the greatest path uncertainty. In contrast, segments such as the supply chain, semiconductor equipment and EDA, cloud and data centers, and hybrid integration may be better positioned to benefit from the transmission of 'quantum progress → capital expenditure and supporting demand.'
Editor/Melody
