①Analysts predict that copper, tin, and aluminum prices will increase by 20%, 16%, and 12% respectively this year, with very strong market demand for these three metals;
②Meanwhile, the outlook for nickel, lead, and zinc is less robust, with price increases of only 4-5%;
③The World Bank previously projected that base metal prices would strengthen in 2026 and 2027, but weaker-than-expected growth in major economies poses the biggest risk.
Cailian Press reported on February 6 (edited by Ma Lan) that at the end of January, a sharp decline in precious metals triggered a drop in metal prices across the board, dampening investor trading enthusiasm. However, analysts pointed out that the explosive price increase in January was widely considered unsustainable, but the overall trend for metal trading this year remains optimistic.
Analysts predict that base metals will maintain their upward momentum this year, with copper, tin, and aluminum prices expected to rise by 20%, 16%, and 12% respectively compared to the average prices in 2025. These three metals are core materials in the energy transition and Internet of Things megatrends, resulting in very strong demand.
On the supply side, copper, the preferred conductive material, cannot meet smelter demands. This is partly due to declining ore grades at existing mines, making it harder and more costly to extract each unit of copper, and partly due to significant supply disruptions at some large copper mines in recent years. Currently, nearly one million tons of annual supply has been reduced, equivalent to 4% of global copper supply.
Tin also faces supply issues. The metal's supply is highly concentrated and overly reliant on remote mining areas such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.
Aluminum faces relatively fewer short-term supplier issues, but severe deindustrialization is occurring in Europe’s smelting industry, making the region more dependent on imports. Additionally, key downstream industries for aluminum, such as aerospace and defense, are expanding, which may impact supply-demand balance in the future.
Analysts expect copper and tin supplies to be in deficit this year, while aluminum supply is projected to have a slight surplus of 80,000 tons, but will shift into deficit by 2027.
Underperformers
In contrast to copper, aluminum, and tin, the prospects for nickel, lead, and zinc are relatively weaker. Median forecasts for 2026 indicate that price increases for these three metals will be only 4-5%.
Among them, lead is likely to become the ultimate loser as internal combustion engine vehicles transition to new energy vehicles using smaller lead-acid batteries, compounded by a gradual slowdown in new energy vehicle sales. Additionally, inventory data shows that lead is currently significantly oversupplied.
Nickel is also correlated with the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry, and an increasing number of manufacturers are exploring non-nickel battery chemistries. Zinc, on the other hand, will be constrained by robust supply growth this year.
In a report released at the end of last year, the World Bank noted that prices for most base metals would strengthen further in 2026 and 2027 as moderate demand growth coincides with tightening supply.
However, the institution also pointed out that potential production disruptions, new trade restrictions, and faster-than-expected expansion of data centers could support metal price increases. Nevertheless, weaker-than-expected growth in major economies remains the biggest risk to metal demand.
Editor/Jeffy
